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» Download the 2025 Bills Team Chapter
We sent out the Bills over 10.5 wins to our futures subscribers before last season because of how good the Bills had been in the regular season, but Warren Sharp outlined why the Bills have struggled in the playoffs, something that continued in 2025.
You cannot blame Josh Allen’s overall performance as the reason they cannot seem to accomplish their goals of making it to and then winning the Super Bowl.
If you look at the 24 quarterbacks with at least 50 playoff pass attempts since 2020, Allen is the #1 most efficient quarterback in the playoffs.
#1 in EPA per play (+0.15)
#1 in success rate (50%)
We know how badly turnovers affect games, particularly in the postseason.
That hasn’t been an issue for Allen.
He has the #1 best TD:INT ratio in the postseason over the last five years.
He has thrown 25 playoff touchdowns to only 4 interceptions, a TD/INT rate of 6.3 that ranks #1.
In their five playoff losses, the Bills have averaged 24.6 points per game, which is not only above the scoring average in the playoffs for all teams (24.5) but is substantially above the scoring average for teams that lose playoff games (18.8).
In fact, the Bills average 24.6 points per game in playoff losses over the last five years, the #1 most of any NFL team with at least three playoff losses.
Opponents scored an average of 33.2 points in Buffalo’s five playoff losses over that span.
It’s hard to pin those defeats on Allen.
In his five losses, he’s averaged +0.14 EPA per play and a 51.2% success rate.
Where do those stats rank among quarterbacks in playoff losses over the last five years?
#1 in EPA/play
#1 in success rate
And yet, the only statistic that matters for the Bills is 0.
That is the number of Super Bowl wins in the last five years.
Even worse, that is the number of AFC Championships in their five playoff trips.
Allen would be the first to point the finger at himself for things he could have done better in each playoff loss, and he hasn’t been perfect.
But at the end of the day, given these statistics and this analysis, it’s hard to look at the Bills and think they can “get over the hump” in the playoffs if only Allen would play better.
With this team, their playoff futility is not on the quarterback.
So, if it’s not on the quarterback, who then bears the blame for the Bills failing mightily when it matters most and not bringing home any AFC Championships or Super Bowls these last five seasons despite recording the #2 most regular season wins and #2 most playoff wins?
And the even bigger question: What are they changing to get over that hump in 2025?
Unfortunately, the answer might be “not enough,” particularly when you look at this next analysis.
As mentioned earlier, the defense has surrendered an average of 33.2 points per game in their five playoff losses over the last five years.
When the average winning playoff team scores 30.2 points per game and your defense is surrendering a full 3.0 ppg more in these games, it’s probably not a positive sign.
If you were rushing in to defend Buffalo’s defense, you might argue that they played the Chiefs in four of the five losses, so it’s natural to surrender more to such a good offense.
But consider this: In the four years they met in the playoffs, the Chiefs scored more points against the Bills than they did against other defenses.
Here are the Chiefs' playoff scores against the Bills and average score against other teams in the playoffs:
2024: 32 points vs. BUF, 22.5 ppg vs everyone else
2023: 27 points vs. BUF, 22.7 ppg vs everyone else
2021: 42 points vs. BUF, 33.0 ppg vs everyone else
2020: 38 points vs. BUF, 15.5 ppg vs everyone else
In the playoffs over the last five years, the Chiefs averaged 34.8 ppg against the Bills and 24.8 ppg against everyone else.
The Chiefs scored at least 27 points in 100% of games against the Bills and scored at least 27 points in just three of 12 games (25%) against every other defense they faced in the playoffs.
“What more can Josh Allen do?”
The answer is not much. Just gaze upon the prior analysis. He’s been brilliant.
“Who is to blame?”
The answer is Sean McDermott.
He has to fix this.
It’s McDermott’s side of the ball that is letting Allen’s offense down.
You must coach and scheme better defense in the playoffs.
» Download the 2025 Bills Team Chapter
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Warren Sharp’s 500+ page full color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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Warren Sharp's book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies, with one goal in mind: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal review and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven, and full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play calling analysis, and team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis: positional spending, roster construction, and cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals and analysis of the futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis