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There are only seven “elder statesmen” type quarterbacks in the NFL who are 28+ years of age, are being paid at least $40 million per year, and are starting in 2025:
- Matthew Stafford (37)
- Dak Prescott (32)
- Jared Goff (30)
- Patrick Mahomes (29)
- Joe Burrow (28)
- Josh Allen (28)
- Lamar Jackson (28)
Despite being the second-oldest in this group, Dak Prescott is tied for the fewest playoff games and has the worst playoff success of any of those quarterbacks.
Surely, you’ve heard “to whom much is given, much is required” before.
Well, that's how it's starting to feel as it relates to Prescott.
While “quarterback wins” aren’t the best way to isolate quarterback production, at the end of the day, the goal is to win games, make the playoffs, and win the Super Bowl.
This is Prescott’s tenth season. He’s clearly an “elder statesman” at this point.
He has led the Cowboys to just two playoff wins in those nine prior seasons.
He’s playing in the NFC, which means he’s not battling year in, year out with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, four absolute studs who are under the age of 30 and have all led their teams to AFC Championship games with varying degrees of postseason success.
Dak is playing in the NFC, and in nine seasons, he has never even been out of the Divisional Round.
We can blame things like the rest of the roster and the coaching all we want, but at the end of the day, QBs are remembered for playoff runs or the lack thereof.
Prescott is being paid like he’s capable of leading a team on a playoff run. We can nitpick his offensive line and running backs and defense all we want.
But for guys like Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson, no one uses those things as excuses for the lack of a run to the Super Bowl.
If the Ravens lose in the AFC Championship Game, it’s because Jackson wasn’t good enough. People don’t rush to defend Jackson in the moment by saying the general manager should have had better wide receivers on the roster.
If the Bills lose in the AFC Championship Game, it’s because Allen wasn’t good enough. People don’t rush to defend Allen in the moment by saying the GM should have had better running backs on the roster.
Somehow, Prescott has avoided being “blamed” like Jackson or Allen or Burrow, even though he’s more experienced and being paid more.
The 2025 Cowboys are forecast to win just 7.5 games and are favored in only six of them.
But why? Because they play a tough schedule?
No matter how tough a schedule the Chiefs play, they are given 10.5+ win totals each year (11.5, 11.5, 10.5, 12.5, and 11.5 since 2020) with Mahomes.
No matter how tough a schedule the Bills play, they are given 9.5+ win totals each year (10.5, 10.5, 11.5, 11.5, and 9.5 since 2020) with Allen.
No matter how tough a schedule the Ravens play, they are given 10.5+ win totals each year (10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, and 11.5 since 2020) with Jackson.
We know those QBs are better than Dak, but it’s wild and extremely disrespectful to have Prescott’s team favored in just six games with a 7.5 win total.
If those odds are accurate, then that speaks more about Dak than anything I could ever write.
There are only two options here. You must believe either one or the other:
- Dak Prescott is a franchise quarterback making $60 million per year, most teams would die to find a frachise quarterback they are willing to pay that much money, and almost no matter who you have around him, he should never be expected to go 6-11 (favored in 6 games, underdogs in 11), 7-10, or 8-9 when healthy.
- Dak Prescott is not worth $60 million per year and is not a franchise quarterback capable of willing his team to a deep playoff run. Certainly not a team like the 2025 Cowboys that is not stacked with talent and is playing a tough schedule. There is nothing wrong with projecting his team will struggle immensely and lose 10+ games this season with him at the helm.
This analysis continues in the 2025 Football Preview
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