We will be keeping track of line movements in the futures markets all season long and note any big movements on a weekly basis.
*All lines are based off of BetMGM on 09/15/21 and 09/22/21
MVP
Kyler Murray +900 to +550
Tom Brady +1000 to +700
Aaron Rodgers +1800 to +1300
Lamar Jackson +2500 to +1800
Derek Carr +6600 to +2000
Jameis Winston +2500 to +5000
Jalen Hurts +3500 to +5000
Derrick Henry +6600 to +5000
Joe Burrow +6600 to +12500
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Mac Jones +350 to +300
Justin Fields +750 to +400
Trevor Lawrence +450 to +750
Trey Lance +800 to +900
Zach Wilson +800 to +1200
Najee Harris +900 to +1400
Kyle Pitts +1600 to +2500
Rondale Moore +5000 to +3000
Javonte Williams +2500 to +5000
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Patrick Surtain II +700 to +550
Micah Parsons +650 to +550
Kwity Paye +1000 to +1300
Azeez Ojulari +2000 to +1400
Joe Tryon +2500 to +1600
Andre Cisco +12500 to +5000
Super Bowl Winner
Arizona Cardinals +3000 to +2500
New Orleans Saints +2500 to +3000
Dallas Cowboys +3500 to +3000
Pittsburgh Steelers +3000 to +3500
Las Vegas Raiders +5000 to +3500
Denver Broncos +5000 to +4000
Other Notable Line Movements
Offensive Player of the Year
Derrick Henry +1600 to +900
Christian McCaffrey +1200 to +900
Kyler Murray +1400 to +900
Cooper Kupp +5000 to +2500
Derek Carr +15000 to +2500
Jameis Winston +2500 to +5000
Jalen Hurts +4000 to +8000
Defensive Player of the Year
Chase Young +1200 to +1800
Devin White +6600 to +2000
Jalen Ramsey +4000 to +2500
Brian Burns +5000 to +3500
Dexter Lawrence +10000 to +4000
Danielle Hunter +6600 to +5000
Roquan Smith +10000 to +6600
Comeback Player of the Year
Joe Burrow +650 to +900
Jameis Winston +500 to +1000
Derwin James +2500 to +1400
Saquon Barkley +1000 to +2500
Danielle Hunter +8000 to +3000
Odell Beckham Jr. +2500 to +6600
Julio Jones +5000 to +10000
Coach of the Year
Jon Gruden +5000 to +1400
Matt Rhule +2000 to +1400
Kliff Kingsbury +2000 to +1600
John Harbaugh +2500 to +1800
Arthur Smith +2000 to +4000
Robert Saleh +2500 to +4000
Line Movement I Would Still Bet: Matt Rhule to Win Coach of the Year +1400
The archetype for this award over the past 30 years has been winning at least four more games year-over-year (28 out of 30), having a team that won seven or fewer games the year before (24 out of 30), and the team wins at least 10 games in the current year (29 out of 30).
Well, Carolina already checks off one of those boxes by only winning five games last season and can check off the other two boxes if they win eight of their final 15 games after starting the season 2-0 and are 8-point favorites at BetMGM this week against the Houston Texans to go to 3-0 on the year. They also have the biggest rest advantage this season at +14 which should benefit them later in the season.
It is easy to point towards Sam Darnold as to why Carolina seems to have improved from last year, but it’s actually their defense that is carrying the team. Through the first two weeks, Carolina has the top-ranked total defense in DVOA per Football Outsiders. They lead the league in sacks with 10 already (they have a 25% pressure rate), yards allowed per play at 3.7, and total yards allowed per game at just 190.
That’s not to say Darnold hasn’t helped, he is currently sixth in QBR and 12th in EPA which is an upgrade over Teddy Bridgewater from last season who ranked 17th and 18th respectively in those same categories. Darnold ranked 33 out of 33 in QBR and 31 out of 33 in EPA last season per ESPN, so it appears getting into Matt Rhule’s and Joe Brady’s system has already paid dividends and should only build as he gets more acclimated as the season progresses.