We will be keeping track of line movements in the futures markets all season long and note any big movements on a weekly basis.
*All lines are based off of BetMGM on 09/28/21 and 10/05/21
MVP
Kyler Murray +700 to +500
Josh Allen +900 to +650
Justin Herbert +1100 to +800
Dak Prescott +1400 to +1000
Matthew Stafford +800 to +1200
Sam Darnold +8000 to +5000
Joe Burrow +10000 to +6600
Teddy Bridgewater +6600 to +10000
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Mac Jones +425 to +400
Ja’Marr Chase +450 to +400
Trey Lance +800 to +650
Trevor Lawrence +1000 to +750
Najee Harris +1100 to +1400
Zach Wilson +2000 to +1600
Rondale Moore +1800 to +1400
Kenneth Gainwell +6600 to +2000
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Micah Parsons +500 to +375
Patrick Surtain II +550 to +500
Asante Samuel Jr. +1400 to +1000
Jayson Oweh +1400 to +1200
Gregory Rousseau +2000 to +1600
Zaven Collins +1400 to +2500
Jaycee Horn +2500 to +4000
Caleb Farley +2200 to +5000
Super Bowl Winner
Buffalo Bills +900 to +700
Cleveland Browns +1400 to +1200
Green Bay Packers +1400 to +1200
Arizona Cardinals +2500 to +1400
Los Angeles Chargers +1800 to +1600
Dallas Cowboys +2500 to +1600
Las Vegas Raiders +3000 to +5000
Pittsburgh Steelers +6600 to +10000
Other Notable Line Movements
Offensive Player of the Year
Derrick Henry +750 to +1000
Kyler Murray +1400 to +1200
Davante Adams +3000 to +1400
Christian McCaffrey +1200 to +1600
Cooper Kupp +2200 to +1600
Patrick Mahomes +1400 to +2000
Derek Carr +2500 to +2000
Deebo Samuel +15000 to +8000
Defensive Player of the Year
Myles Garrett +400 to +350
TJ Watt +1600 to +900
Joey Bosa +2000 to +1400
Trevon Diggs N/A to +1800
Brian Burns +3000 to +2000
Devin White +3500 to +2500
Maxx Crosby +5000 to +3000
Chase Young +5000 to +6600
Comeback Player of the Year
Dak Prescott +135 to -165
Joe Burrow +550 to +750
Sam Darnold +800 to +1000
Derwin James +1600 to +2200
Saquon Barkley +2200 to +3000
Odell Beckham Jr. +3500 to +3000
Chandler Jones +2200 to +5000
Carson Wentz +5000 to +4000
James Connor +5000 to +4000
Coach of the Year
Brandon Staley +800 to +700
Kliff Kingsbury +1600 to +900
Jon Gruden +1400 to +1100
Vic Fangio +1000 to +1400
Matt Rhule +1200 to +1600
Mike McCarthy +2500 to +1800
Sean Payton +1800 to +2500
Matt Lafleur +4000 to +3000
Urban Meyer +6600 to +10000
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Line Movement I Would Still Bet: Patrick Mahomes to Win Offensive Player of the Year +2000
I had to double-check the numbers on this to make sure that I had it right. Coming off of a five-touchdown performance against the Eagles, Mahomes went from +1400 to +2000. Yes, the odds actually increased for the league leader in touchdowns. Not only does he lead the league in touchdowns he also leads in total QBR, EPA, and PAA per ESPN. When Mahomes won the award in 2018, he led the league in all three categories as well, but he is on pace to have even better numbers in each of those categories than he did that year. In addition to those metrics, in 2018 he finished with 50 touchdowns, but at his current average through the first four games, he will finish this season with 59 touchdowns if he plays all 17 games.
With the Chiefs sitting at just 2-2 it’s looking very plausible that Mahomes will have to play all 17 games as they jockey for seeding in a crowded AFC. That can mostly be attributed to their defense which has given up the most points in the league and is currently the worst defense in the league in DVOA per Football Outsiders. That will only help Mahomes put up bigger numbers on offense as not only will they be in shootouts but also be in close games as evidenced by their current point differential of just nine points on the season even though they have scored the most points in the league.