How the 2025 NFL Schedule Hurts the Washington Commanders

Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's rest disparity analysis of the 2025 NFL Schedule. Click here to read the full article.

The Commanders are about to embark on a 2025 season that features the #3 worst net rest edge of any team in the NFL.

That said, there is a silver lining.

In total, Washington plays five teams who have over a week to prepare for them, the second highest total of any team.

They play four games where they will be on less rest than their opponent, the third highest total of any team.

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Washington faces an NFL high three teams off a bye:

Week 6: Chicago Bears, off their Week 5 bye
Week 9: Seattle Seahawks, off their Week 8 bye
Week 15: New York Giants, off their Week 14 bye

Back before the 2011 CBA, this scheduling issue would have mattered more.

The 2011 CBA introduced mandatory days off for teams on bye weeks, allowing players to fall out of their routines and become distracted.

Data has clearly shown a dropoff in production post-bye of late.

We discussed this in depth earlier in the article.

Aside from those three games, Washington plays just one game at a rest disadvantage (Week 7 in Dallas with a one day rest deficit due to playing MNF the prior week).

Washington also plays two short week road games (Week 2 in Green Bay, Week 7 in Dallas).

Overall, from a strength of opponent perspective, Washington is middle of the pack (#19).

And most of their tough games are on the road.

As the below graphic shows, Washington plays nine games against teams expected to win 8.4 games or more this year (decimals due to the betting market expectations).

Six of those nine games are on the road (GB, LAC, KC, MIA, MIN, PHI).

While the arrow is certainly pointing up each year, the NFL schedule makers did them very few favors.

One lone exception is the ability to host Dallas on Christmas with a +1 day rest edge, followed by a +3 rest edge vs the Eagles in Week 18.

Other 2025 NFL Schedule Content:

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