Arizona vs. Texas Tech, Current Betting Odds:
- Texas Tech -3.5 points
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Arizona vs. Texas Tech Best Bet Prediction:
- Under 54.5 points
Arizona's offense is on fire, but it's been a few weeks since it faced a defense like Texas Tech, so let's play the under at 54.5 points.
Arizona's Key Matchup on Offense
Arizona runs a pass-heavy offense, relying heavily on fifth-year senior quarterback Noah Fifita.
Fifita's experience has helped keep the offense rolling despite the Wildcats losing their top three receivers to injury in the same game earlier this year (Week 5 versus Cincinnati).
In their two games with an entire crew of backup receivers, Fifita has led the Cats to 91 points against West Virginia and Iowa State.
Fortunately for the Wildcats, two of those receivers (Giovanni Richardson and Chris Hunter) are listed as probable on the injury report, though leading receiver Tre Spivey is out for the year.
Even with those receivers back, the Texas Tech defense is likely to slow Arizona's offensive onslaught by pressuring Fifita.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers on the pass-protection battle from Sports Info Solutions:
- Arizona: ranked 79th in pressure rate allowed
- Texas Tech: ranked 16th in pressure rate generated
So how has Arizona's offense been so strong despite struggling to protect Fifita?
Well, check out where the Wildcats' Big 12 opponents have ranked by this metric:
- BYU, 28th
- Cincinnati, 70th
- West Virginia, 90th
- Iowa State, 132nd
BYU, the only competent pass-rush unit Arizona has faced, handed the Cats their only loss, holding them to a season-low 5.3 yards per play while sacking Fifita 3 times and forcing an interception.
It is worth noting, however, that Texas Tech has struggled to finish off pressures with sacks.
Only 15% of the Red Raiders' pressures have resulted in sacks, ranking 106th.
So it's possible that trend negates Fifita's tendency to make mistakes under duress, as he's been sacked on 23% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 108th.
Texas Tech's Key Matchup on Offense
Texas Tech runs a balanced offense under coordinator Mack Leftwich, but the key to this game will be avoiding costly mistakes in the passing game.
Arizona coordinator Danny Gonzales is the most aggressive defensive play-caller in the country, using blitzes 60% of the time, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Only three other power conference teams are even above the 40% mark.
The strategy has led to Arizona ranking fifth in the country in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.
Gonzales' defense will be a new test for Red Raiders quarterback Will Hammond, as he's faced blitzes on more than 20% of his dropbacks against just one Big 12 opponent this season (29% against Houston).
So let's check out some of Hammond's numbers against five or more pass-rushers via Sports Info Solutions:
- 9.6 yards per attempt, ranked 15th
- 5.6% interception rate, ranked 111th
- 12% sack rate, ranked 104th
Clearly, Hammond has made some big plays to boost his passing numbers, but with nearly one out of every five dropbacks producing a sack or interception, there's plenty of reason to believe Arizona can force some costly errors.
We should also address the primary big picture concern for Texas Tech's offense: red zone scoring.
For the second year in a row, Leftwich can't figure out how to get his team into the end zone.
The Red Raiders ranked 98th in red zone touchdown rate last year (55%) and have only gotten worse this year, ranking 119th at 51%.
That is problematic against a Wildcats defense ranked 26th, allowing touchdowns on just 50% of red zone visits.
Final Thoughts on Texas Tech vs. Arizona Best Bets
There's reason to trust both defenses in this matchup, so let's take the under at 54.5 points.
If betting against the spread, I would lean towards trusting Texas Tech's defense at home, but since touchdowns may be tough to come by for both sides, the under looks like the play.