The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Atlanta Falcons could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Atlanta Falcons 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Atlanta was an average team in one-score games, but they struggled in games decided by a field goal or less and overtime contests. They were 21st in wins (3) in games decided by 3 points or fewer, 28th in losses (4), 21st in win percentage (42.9%), and dreadful in overtime, losing both of their overtime contests.
-The Falcons were on the wrong side of fumble variance in 2025, ranking 31st in fumble luck. Atlanta had 19 fumbles and lost 10 of them last season, while their opponents had 23 fumbles and lost only 7.
-Drake London missed only one game through his first three seasons, but he missed four with a PCL sprain in his knee last year. Atlanta’s top wideout was outstanding when healthy in 2025, ranking seventh in yards per route run (2.36) and sixth in target share (28.7%) among 93 wide receivers with at least 250 routes. Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts is coming off a healthy and productive season. A healthier season from London and continued health from Pitts would give Atlanta’s starting quarterback a potent one-two punch in the passing attack, combined with electrifying do-it-all running back Bijan Robinson.
Reasons for the Under
-Do the Falcons have a competent starting quarterback? Among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025, Michael Penix was 25th in EPA per play, and Tua Tagovailoa was 27th in EPA per play. Both lefties also regularly put the ball in harm’s way last year. Among 36 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks in 2025, Tagovailoa was tied for the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate, and Penix was tied for the 10th-highest turnover-worthy play rate.
-While Robinson, London, and Pitts are a high-caliber trio of skill-position players, the pass-catching options behind them leave much to be desired. Opposing defensive coordinators won’t lose sleep over Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus, or Austin Hooper if they’re forced into more prominent roles.
-The Falcons had an average defense last year. Atlanta was 16th in yards allowed per play (5.3), 15th in points allowed per drive (2.11), 19th in scoring defense (23.6 points per game), and 15th in pressure rate. However, they were tied for seventh in turnovers forced (23). A little less turnover fortune could tip the scales toward below-average in 2026. Furthermore, Kaden Elliss and Arnold Ebiketie were Atlanta’s top two defenders in pass-rush win rate among players with at least 100 pass-rush snaps last year, and James Pearce paced the defense with 10.5 sacks. Elliss and Ebiketie left in free agency, and Pearce could face a suspension under the NFL’s code of conduct policy for his off-field behavior.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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