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The Cincinnati Bengals are looking to bounce back after missing the playoffs in 2023.
Their team is among the most talented in the NFL. Expectations for next season are high, but the schedule could be an issue.
The Bengals played the NFL’s #1 toughest schedule last year.
They played 11 games vs. playoff teams, which was the most in the NFL since at least 2000.
They went 4-7 vs. those playoff teams but 5-1 vs. non-playoff teams.
They also played 14 games against teams over .500, tied for most since at least 2000.
Despite that brutal schedule and with their QB1 banged up or missing for 12 of 17 games, the Bengals STILL went 9-8 and nearly made the playoffs last year.
This year?
They play the #6 easiest schedule and have the #1 biggest year-over-year improvement for any team.
Losing Joe Burrow for the team’s final 7.5 games, and dealing with him being less than 100% for the first four games, meant there were only five true games that Burrow was viewed as “100%.”
The Bengals went 4-1 in those games, beating the 49ers, Bills, Seahawks, and Cardinals while losing to the Texans 30-27 on a field goal as time expired.
But that’s just their list of opponents, not how the NFL scheduled these opponents.
The Bengals have the NFL’s worst prep and rest schedule of 2024.
It was the NFL’s worst before I even accounted for the insane string of “three games in 10 days” late in the season.
The Bengals play three short-week road games:
- Week 4 in Carolina on a Sunday after a Monday night game Week 3
- Week 10 in Baltimore on Thursday after a Sunday game Week 9
- Week 15 in Tennessee on Sunday after a Monday night game Week 14
No team plays more than three short-week road games this year.
What should frustrate Bengals fans is that in 2023 they were one of three teams that had to play three short-week road games (most in the NFL).
So in back-to-back years, the Bengals are playing three short-week road games, most in the NFL each year.
The Bengals also play five games against teams with over seven days to prepare for them. Only five teams play more such games.
Cincinnati ranks #24 in “net” games vs. opponents with plus or less than a week to prepare (-3).
The Bengals’ Week 12 bye week is partly negated since the Steelers play on Thursday night in Week 12 and have a mini-bye leading into that game.
The Bengals are one of the teams playing three games in 10 days, and they are at a rest disadvantage in all of them:
- Week 14 Monday night in Dallas – Dallas has a three-day rest edge because Dallas played the prior Thursday
- Week 15 Sunday in Tennessee – Tennessee has a one-day rest edge because Cincy is off MNF
- Week 15 Thursday vs. Cleveland – Cleveland did not play three games in 10 days, so hasn’t been strained like Cincy entering this game
The bottom line is that for most of their toughest games on the schedule, rest is working against the Bengals:
- Week 2 vs. the Chiefs in Kansas City – KC is off a Thursday game and thus a mini-bye
- Week 10 vs. the Ravens in Baltimore – Short-week road game
- Week 14 vs. the Cowboys in Dallas – DAL is off a Thursday game and thus a mini-bye
The Bengals have transformed into a primetime team, but it has come with its consequences. Their rest disadvantage is concerning, especially against AFC powerhouses and division rivals.
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Bengals Over/Under Wins, 2024:
The Bengals are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Bengals Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
Joe Burrow‘s return to health is the biggest reason to be optimistic about this team.
He struggled with a calf injury early in the season and then suffered a season-ending wrist injury that likely caused Cincinnati to miss the playoffs.
The team went 4-1 with Burrow at full strength.
This team can make a deep playoff run if Burrow plays the full season in 2024.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
Zac Taylor did a tremendous job, especially after Burrow went down last season.
The Bengals managed to stay in the playoff race and finish with a winning record.
Taylor devised a creative game plan that helped keep the offense moving with Jake Browning at quarterback. His coaching will be an asset in 2024.
» Bet the Bengals Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Bengals Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Bengals will be without two key starters on defense after D.J. Reader and Chidobe Awuzie left in free agency.
Over the last two years, the Bengals were the No. 1 run defense in the league with Reader on the field, but they fell to dead last in yards per carry allowed with Reader off the field.
They will need to figure out how to stop the run without Reader this season.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Bengals were not done any favors by the schedule makers.
They play three short-week road games including a Week 15 matchup against the Titans.
That game is part of a run of three games in 10 days.
That type of run is never great, but it is a more daunting task late in the season.