Chiefs vs Bengals Prediction, Prop Bets & Best Bets – AFC Conference Championship

Sharp Football’s Rich Hribrar breaks down this Chiefs vs Bengals AFC Conference Championship for the 6:30pm ET kickoff on Sunday, Jan 29:

This will be the fourth time the Bengals and Chiefs have played since last January.

The Bengals have won the three previous meetings. But make no mistakes with the final results. These have been tight contests, with Cincinnati pulling out all three matchups by exactly three points. The Chiefs led in the second half of all three games and did not trail in any of them heading into the fourth quarter.

The Bengals have been able to do just a touch more defensively than the Chiefs in deciding these games head-to-head, but the Chiefs are still the offense that has given the Bengals the most trouble, like most of the league.

Over the past two years:

  • The Chiefs have averaged 2.82 points per drive against the Bengals, the most of any opponent versus Cincinnati.
  • The Chiefs averaged 6.4 yards per play (third) while scoring a touchdown on 35.7% of their possessions (second).

In three games against the Chiefs, the Bengals:

  • have scored 3.26 points per drive (the most of any team playing multiple games against Kansas City),
  • while scoring points on 63.0% of their drives (17-of-27).

Kansas City outscored the Bengals 59-41 in the first half of those games while averaging 7.7 yards per play on offense.

In the second half of those games, the Bengals outscored the Chiefs 48-19, with the Chiefs averaging 5.0 yards per play.

Their matchup this season in Week 13 was a reversal of the totals, with the Chiefs outscoring the Bengals 14-13 in the second half while averaging 7.3 yards per play after the break prior to averaging 5.7 yards per play heading into the second half.

We are hoping to see Patrick Mahomes as close to 100% as possible, but there is a cloud of uncertainty there that is reflected in the betting market already.

With Mahomes a full go, these teams have played three tight games and feature the two hottest teams in the AFC.

  • The Chiefs have won 11 of their past 12 games, with their lone loss coming against the Bengals.
  • Cincinnati has won 11 games in a row heading into Sunday.

Since Week 9:

  • The Chiefs lead the NFL in yards per play (6.4) while the Bengals are 10th (5.5).
  • Cincinnati is fifth in the league in points per drive over that span (2.49) while the Chiefs are sixth (2.48).

While offensively these teams are tight, defensively the Bengals have the edge in most objective metrics.

Cincinnati is allowing 1.74 points per drive (10th) while the Chiefs are allowing 2.01 (19th).

There is not a wide gap here in yards allowed per play, but the Bengals have gained their largest edge in preventing touchdowns compared to Kansas City.

Teams have scored a touchdown on just 17.1% of their drives against the Bengals (fourth lowest rate) while opponents have reached the end zone on 23.2% of their drives against the Chiefs (seventh-highest rate).

Opponents have turned just 49.1% of their red zone attempts into touchdowns against the Bengals (fifth-lowest rate) while the Chiefs have allowed a 67.2% red zone conversion rate into touchdowns (second highest). League average is 56.4%.

» Read the full Chiefs vs Bengals Worksheet breakdown

Chiefs vs Bengals Prediction

The Chiefs are predicted to win the AFC Conference Championship game with a 54.55% implied probability based on current betting lines. However, the moneyline model predicts the Bengals will win with 53% confidence.

» Bet it Now: Chiefs vs Bengals 

Chiefs vs Bengals Odds, Spread, Totals & Moneyline:

Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Bengals -1.5 -110 47 -110 -120
Chiefs +1.5 -110 47 -110 +100

Chiefs vs Bengals Team Comparison:

CincinnatiRank@Kansas CityRank
24.25Implied Total22.25
19.45Points All./Gm21.615
62.410Opp. Plays/Gm64.121
5.414Off. Yards/Play6.41
5.416Def. Yards/Play5.19
41.01%9Opp. Rush %37.99%3
58.99%24Opp. Pass %62.01%30
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  • The Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Chiefs have scored first in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Chiefs have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets Against the Spread:

  • The Bengals have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.20 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Bengals have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Bengals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Bengals have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+6.10 Units / 84% ROI)

First & Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prediction & Bet for Chiefs vs Bengals:

Kadarius Toney (WR, Chiefs) is our pick for the 1st TD Scorer bet in this AFC Conference Championship matchup.

» Bet it now: +1800 

Tyler Boyd (WR, Bengals) is our pick pick for an anytime TD Scorer bet in the AFC Conference Championship game.

» Bet it now: +310

» Get Anytime & 1st TD Scorer Bets for every playoff game

Chiefs Against the Spread Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 7-11 (-5.2 Units / -26.13% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 15-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 13.65% ROI
  • Chiefs are 8-10 when betting the Over for -3 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Chiefs are 10-8 when betting the Under for +1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI

Bengals Against the Spread Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals have gone 13-5 (+7.35 Units / 37.03% ROI).

  • Bengals are 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 13.66% ROI
  • Bengals are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4.05 Units / -20.4% ROI
  • Bengals are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / ROI

Continue reading from BetMGM’s Bengals vs Chiefs game breakdown 

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