This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let's check out a potential playoff elimination game in the Big Ten between USC and Oregon.
USC vs. Oregon, current line:
USC at Oregon Best Bet Prediction:
The Ducks are incentivized to pad their résumé with a convincing win, so let’s lay the points and take Oregon against the spread.
- USC vs. Oregon, best line: Oregon -9.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Oregon -9.5 points
When USC is on Offense
USC runs a pass-heavy spread offense under head coach and play caller Lincoln Riley.
Although Riley has always relied on the passing game, he has been less aggressive this season and trusts his backfield, as well.
According to Campus2Canton, the Trojans throw the ball at a rate 5.5% above expected based on situational data, a steep dropoff from their 12.9% rate a season ago.
As is usually the case with Riley’s offenses, USC has one of the most explosive units in the nation, gaining 20 or more yards on 9.3% of plays, ranked seventh in the FBS.
Oregon’s defense will provide a challenge, however, as it leads the nation in explosive play rate allowed.
When the Trojans faced Nebraska (ranked seventh in explosive play rate allowed), they set season-low marks for points (21) and yards per play (5.5).
So there’s evidence that this explosive offense can be slowed by strong defenses, and the Ducks' unit is certainly more talented than the Huskers.
One of the areas where Oregon holds a clear advantage is in the pass protection battle, which appears to be lopsided based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- USC: ranked 98th in pressure rate allowed
- Oregon: ranked 4th in pressure rate generated
However, quarterback Jayden Maiava has been unfazed by pressure this season, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt (ranked 20th).
Perhaps more importantly, Maiava has only taken a sack on 9.4% of his dropbacks versus pressure, the nation’s 14th-lowest rate.
Maiava has also proven his ability to handle top pass-rush units already this year, when he managed to avoid taking a sack against a Michigan defense ranked 10th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate (the best pass-rush unit USC has faced to date).
One of the ways USC avoids pressure is by leaning heavily on the quick passing game.
The Trojans have used quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) at a 33% rate, the highest rate in the Big Ten and ranked 18th in the country.
It’s an effective strategy for USC, but an area where the Trojans are unlikely to have much success against the Ducks based on these quick-dropback numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- USC: 8.5 yards per attempt, ranked 11th
- Oregon: 3.8 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 2nd
When Maiava does drop back in the pocket, it’s often with the intention of attacking downfield.
Outside the red zone, 26% of USC’s attempts are at least 15 yards downfield (ranked 27th), and Maiava ranks third in the nation in completion rate at that depth (59.5%).
It won’t be easy to beat the Ducks’ secondary, however, as Oregon ranks eighth in completion rate allowed (30%).
Although Oregon’s pass rush is a key component of its success defending the pass, the secondary, led by safety Dillon Thieneman and corner Brandon Finney Jr, is among the best in the nation as well.
Check out Oregon’s pass defense numbers when failing to generate pressure, via Sports Info Solutions:
- 5.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 1st
- 54% completion rate allowed, ranked 2nd
If the passing attack can’t get going, USC might be able to lean more on its rushing attack, which has thrived despite injuries.
Check out the run game matchup based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- USC: ranked 13th in yards before contact
- Oregon: ranked 41st in yards before contact allowed
- USC: ranked 13th in yards after contact
- Oregon: ranked 20th in yards after contact allowed
USC has been leaning on King Miller at running back, a walk-on redshirt freshman, and it’s gone surprisingly well.
Original starter Waymond Jordan might return for this game, but after Miller’s performances against defenses like Michigan, Nebraska, and Iowa, there’s no reason to think the Trojans need Jordan back on the field in order to run the ball on the Ducks.
Although Oregon has a solid run defense, defensive miscues have occasionally plagued the Ducks against the run.
Oregon is allowing three or more yards before contact on 26% of attempts by running backs, ranked 46th.
That’s a concerning trend entering this contest against Riley’s offense, which excels at creating open lines.
The Trojans lead the nation in the rate of gaining three or more yards before contact at 29%.
Despite that trend of giving up open lanes, Oregon’s second-level defenders do tend to clean up those mistakes quickly.
Oregon is only allowing 10 or more yards on 5.8% of rush attempts, the second-lowest rate.
So USC may be able to sustain drives on the ground, but its usual big-play abilities are likely to be held in check.
When Oregon is on Offense
Oregon is running a relatively balanced offense this season under coordinator Will Stein, a shift from years past.
The slightly more conservative scheme should suit the Ducks well in this matchup since USC cannot stop the run.
Second-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has improved the once-inept Trojan defense considerably, but a lack of physicality and consistent miscues in the run game still plagues the unit.
Let’s check out the battle on the ground based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 2nd in yards before contact
- USC: ranked 116th in yards before contact allowed
- Oregon: ranked 4th in yards after contact
- USC: ranked 22nd in yards after contact allowed
Although USC’s yards after contact rate is strong, a factor in that number is their tendency to simply never make contact.
Allowing three or more yards before contact is a problem, but it can be contained by solid second-level defenders 一 but USC isn’t cleaning things up on the back end.
The Trojans are also allowing 10 or more yards before contact on 7.5% of attempts, the nation’s seventh-worst rate.
The depth of Oregon's backfield will make things particularly difficult for USC, as the Ducks have three ball carriers averaging over seven yards per carry.
Oregon’s ability to rotate Noah Whittington, Dierre Hill Jr, and Jordon Davison likely allows the Ducks to keep ripping off big plays on the ground by always having fresh legs in the backfield.
Ducks quarterback Dante Moore should have success in the passing game as well, especially if his offensive line can hold up.
Here’s a look at the pass protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oregon: ranked 17th in pressure rate allowed
- USC: ranked 44th in pressure rate generated
Moore takes traditional dropbacks at a 48% rate, which tends to invite more pressure and could potentially be a problem at times in this matchup.
Although USC’s pass rush isn’t great (ranked 51st in pressure rate against traditional dropbacks), the Ducks' offensive line is flawed as well (ranked 63rd in traditional dropback pressure rate).
The biggest issue for USC’s pass defense, however, is its inability to bring down receivers after the catch.
USC ranks 92nd in yards after the catch per reception and 91st on YAC per reception on throws five or fewer yards downfield.
That’s a major problem against an Oregon offense that tends to attack underneath.
According to Sports Info Solutions, 55% of the Ducks’ throws are five or fewer yards downfield, the 14th-highest rate.
So we should expect Oregon’s offense to have consistent success in both phases of the game in this matchup.
Final Thoughts on Oregon vs. USC Best Bets
Dan Lanning is not going to let up in this matchup, so let’s lay the points and bet Oregon against the spread.
This is a favorable matchup for Oregon’s offense, and we should expect Lanning to run up the score to pad Oregon’s résumé.
If the Ducks win, it will be the best win on their résumé, so Lanning knows he needs to make it look impressive.
And there’s strong evidence that Lanning is willing to run up the score in certain games.
He appeared to do so earlier this year against Oklahoma State after Mike Gundy made some disparaging remarks about his program.
He also appeared to make a point to embarrass Deion Sanders a few years ago when both were in the Pac-12.