BYU vs. Utah, Current Betting Odds:
- Utah -4.5 points
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BYU vs. Utah Best Bet Prediction:
- BYU +4.5 points
It would help if LJ Martin plays, but the Cougars defense is the real reason to take BYU against the spread.
When BYU Is on Offense
BYU runs a relatively balanced offense, but the scheme works best when the Cougars' power rushing attack is clicking.
In the run game, BYU leans heavily on both its running backs and quarterback Bear Bachmeier, so let's break down both phases of the run game separately.
First, let's look at how these teams stack up based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions when running backs are carrying the ball:
- BYU: ranked 75th in yards before contact
- Utah: ranked 25th in yards before contact allowed
- BYU: ranked 11th in yards after contact
- Utah: ranked 45th in yards after contact allowed
Although BYU's yards after contact production looks impressive, LJ Martin has been the one carrying the load.
Martin has been injured since early October and, although he returned to practice this week, is still listed as doubtful on the injury report.
Since Week 5, when BYU has been without Martin (which includes the TCU game in which he was injured and had just two carries), the Cougars rank 81st in opponent-adjusted yards after contact.
The inability of backups Preston Rex, Sione Moa and Journee Tonga to fight through contact has created problems because BYU's tendency to lean on heavy formations allows defenses to stack the box.
Cougars running backs have faced stacked boxes at a 58% rate this year, the nation's 25th-highest mark.
That trend has been problematic in recent weeks as Rex, Moa and Tonga have combined to average 2.5 yards per attempt against stacked boxes in Martin's absence.
Prior to his injury, Martin was averaging 4.7 yards per carry in those situations, and he averaged 5.6 against stacked boxes in 2025.
These numbers are especially critical in this matchup as no defense has stacked the box at a higher rate than Morgan Scalley‘s Utes (89%).
Unable to lean on its running backs in Martin's absence, BYU has turned to Bachmeier, who leads the team with 284 rushing yards, excluding sacks, since Week 5.
One of the ways Bachmeier gets involved in the run game is through the use of read-option plays, which BYU has used on 24% of its rushing attempts this season while averaging 6.8 yards per attempt on those plays, according to Sports Info Solutions.
However, the read-option attack might not be a significant factor in this matchup.
Utah has defended the read-option well, allowing just 2.4 yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest mark in the country.
The Cougars also shied away from the read-option attack last year against the Utes, running just 4 plays.
Bachmeier did have success against the Utes in 2025, however, carrying the ball 9 times for 71 yards.
If Martin does not suit up and BYU struggles to run the ball, the Cougars should be able to find some success with the passing attack, partly because they can protect Bachmeier.
Check out Sports Info Solutions' opponent-adjusted numbers on the pass-protection battle:
- BYU: ranked 4th in pressure rate allowed
- Utah: ranked 25th in pressure rate generated
Although Utah's pass-rush numbers look good right now, they may be skewed by a ridiculous 71% pressure rate generated against Cincinnati last week.
Prior to that unsustainable performance, Utah's opponent-adjusted pressure rate ranked 77th, and the Utes generated a pressure rate higher than their opponent's average just once (versus Utah State).
The Utes have also been susceptible to big plays against the pass, allowing 20 or more yards on 9.6% of attempts, ranked 66th in the FBS.
BYU's offense ranks 46th by the same metric.
To slow down the BYU passing attack, Utah will need to defend the downfield passing game.
Outside the red zone, 31% of BYU's throws have been at least 15 yards downfield, the 12th-highest rate.
Utah's defense has allowed a 40% completion rate on those plays, ranked 52nd, but that's a red flag given the level of competition the Utes have faced.
The best quarterback Utah has faced is Houston's Conner Weigman, but Houston doesn't attack downfield nearly as often as BYU.
The only other Big 12 offense Utah has faced that pushes the ball downfield consistently is Kansas.
The Utes allowed Jayhawks quarterback Isaiah Marshall to throw for 333 yards in that contest, including going 8 for 13 on throws 15 or more yards downfield.
That helped a shaky Kansas squad hang around in a game that was 27-24 entering the fourth quarter.
So if BYU can connect on some big plays down the field, it might negate some of the potential struggles in the run game, especially if Martin can't suit up or is ineffective at less than full strength.
When Utah is on Offense
Utah's offense is led by first-year coordinator Kevin McGiven, who joined the team from Utah State after Jason Beck followed Kyle Whittingham to Michigan.
McGiven is Utah's fourth play-caller in the last three years and had limited experience before joining the Utes, but his balanced scheme has worked so far this season.
This game will test McGiven's ability, given his lack of experience on this stage.
McGiven's only prior experience calling plays at the power conference level was during the 2016 and 2017 seasons at Oregon State, when he led two of the worst offenses the Beavers have ever put on the field.
What has worked well for McGiven at Utah has been his unpredictable play-calling.
It is hard to summarize Utah's offensive identity as the Utes rank near the middle of the pack in almost every notable play-calling metric.
One of the only predictable areas of Utah's offense is its rushing attack, which tends to send ball carriers to the outside.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Utah's running backs take the ball outside the tackles 62% of the time, the nation's 17th-highest rate.
Theoretically, running to the outside could help ball carriers get into open space and create big plays, but check out the production of Utah's running backs by direction:
- Outside the tackles: 5.1 yards per attempt, ranked 65th
- Between the tackles: 8.8 yards per attempt, ranked 1st (by over two full yards)
Given the predictable nature of the rushing attack, BYU should be prepared to slow down Wayshawn Parker.
The Cougars are allowing just 3.2 yards per attempt to the outside, the ninth-lowest rate in the nation.
The key to slowing down Utah's rushing attack has been creating early contact, which Parker and his backup Daniel Bray have struggled to fight through.
When Utah running backs face contact at or behind the line of scrimmage, they have gone down for zero or negative yards 56% of the time, the nation's highest rate.
Creating early contact against Utah has not been easy, however, and Utah might have a slight edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Utah: ranked 2nd in yards before contact
- BYU: ranked 19th in yards before contact allowed
That said, Utah's strength of schedule (ranked 83rd per ESPN) has been so poor that even opponent-adjusted numbers may not paint an accurate picture.
The only defense Utah has faced that can reasonably be compared to BYU is Houston, and in that game Parker and Bray were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 50% of their carries.
The other area of Utah's offense that will help determine the outcome of this game is the downfield passing attack.
Outside the red zone, Utah throws 15 or more yards downfield 26% of the time, slightly above the FBS average of 23%, while completing 49% of those throws.
Maintaining that level of success will be difficult against BYU, which has the secondary to shut down the deep passing game.
Opponents are completing just 26% of their passes at that depth against the Cougars, tied for the fourth-lowest rate in the nation.
Utah should also worry about its ability to protect Devon Dampier when he wants to attack downfield.
Downfield throws typically occur on extended dropbacks, and Utah's offense has been explosive on those types of plays.
When its quarterback holds the ball for at least 2.5 seconds, Utah is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus.
However, Utah has also thrown 4 interceptions on those plays and taken 10 sacks.
That could be problematic against a BYU defense that generates a 55% pressure rate against extended dropbacks, ranked 12th in the FBS.
BYU's ability to defend the downfield passing game was a significant factor in its upset win over Notre Dame, as CJ Carr was just 7 for 24 (29%) on throws of 10 or more yards.
He's completed 58% of those throws against everyone else.
Final Thoughts on Utah vs. BYU Best Bets
Both teams have been inconsistent, but the Cougars' defense looks like the most reliable unit either team will put on the field, so let's take BYU against the spread.
Obviously, it will help if Martin suits up, but there's reason to trust BYU's passing game with or without Martin, which might give the Cougars a slight edge, especially considering Utah's turnover-prone ways.