Week 9 NFL Best Bets: Against the Spread & Game Total Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 9 Picks

• New York Giants -3
• Green Bay Packers +3

Sharp Betting Tools:

• NFL Spreads, Totals, & Moneylines
• NFL Props: Lines & Odds
• NFL Weather Forecast & Potential Impact
• NFL Implied Team Totals
• NFL Matchups

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: New York Giants -3

Philadelphia's season is spiraling down the drain.

Their quarterback play was lousy, even when Jalen Hurts was healthy.

According to Tru Media, among 40 quarterbacks with at least 40 pass attempts, Hurts was 32nd in expected points added (EPA) per play.

Tanner McKee was worse, ranking tied for 36th, ahead of only Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, and Baker Mayfield.

The Eagles pulled the plug on McKee, instead starting Joe Milton this week.

Milton has 59 career dropbacks since the Patriots picked him in the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

This will be his first career NFL start, and his most extensive action came in relief in a meaningless Week 18 game in 2024 against the Bills, although he was outstanding.

The Eagles signed Milton to their active roster off the Cowboys' practice squad on October 16.

So, he hasn't even been with the organization for a month.

Making matters worse for Milton, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, and Saquon Barkley didn't practice to start the week.

Barkley played last week and seems most likely to play, since it makes sense to manage his practice reps.

Smith and Wicks have both missed the previous two games.

Also, unfortunately for Milton, the running game hasn't played well, making it unlikely it will pick up the slack for him.

Philadelphia is 28th in EPA per designed rush.

Philadelphia's defense is unimpressive, too.

It ranks 22nd in defensive points allowed per game (25.3), 24th in points allowed per drive (2.32), tied for 22nd in defensive EPA per play, tied for 22nd in yards allowed per play (5.6), and tied for 21st in defensive success rate.

The Giants will have a rest advantage coming out of their bye.

J.J. McCarthy has provided the G-Men with a spark since entering the game in the fourth quarter in Week 6.

Among 40 quarterbacks with at least 40 pass attempts this season, McCarthy ranks 14th in EPA per play.

He's wisely fed Malik Nabers, and Nabers has surpassed 110 receiving yards in four straight games, performing like the alpha he was before undergoing knee surgery last season.

The Giants also have an approximately average defense.

They rank 17th in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), 16th in points allowed per drive (2.04), tied for 15th in defensive EPA per play, tied for 13th in yards allowed per play (5.3), and 15th in defensive success rate.

There's some pumpkin risk for McCarthy, but even a struggling McCarthy is likely on par with a Milton in his first start, and there's a chance the pre-bye McCarthy is somewhat real.

The Giants have also been the better team this year and have the rest advantage.

Ultimately, the Eagles have lost six straight games, including three straight by more than 3 points and five of six by more than 3 points.

The Giants, coming off the bye, aren't a get-right spot for the Eagles.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Green Bay Packers +3

The Packers at the Patriots is one of the week's most intriguing matchups, with New England a 3-point home favorite.

However, the Packers have a rest advantage after beating the Panthers 27-19 on Thursday Night Football.

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 24-19 in Miami, coming back from a 13-3 halftime deficit.

It's a relatively even matchup, starting with the quarterbacks.

Among 31 qualified quarterbacks this season, Drake Maye is eighth in EPA per play, and Jordan Love is 12th.

The Packers are tied for dead last in EPA per rush this year, and the Patriots are 22nd.

That said, Josh Jacobs returned in Week 7 from the Commissioner's Exempt List, so there's a story that can be told about them climbing out of the basement.

Circling back to the passing attacks, Love has his top-three passing-game weapons, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Tucker Kraft, at his disposal this week.

A.J. Brown was out on Sunday and didn't practice to start the week.

Hunter Henry left last week's contest with a foot injury, and he didn't practice to start the week.

Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, too.

Mack Hollins had his 21-day practice window opened, but he began the week with a limited practice.

More importantly, if Hollins is the answer to who a club is looking at to reinforce the passing attack, that's terrifying.

As good as Maye is, he can run into trouble in the passing game if his top options are DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams, Efton Chism, a returning and potentially rusty Hollins, and Eli Raridon.

Maye could make chicken salad last week, but the Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense EPA per dropback, and the Packers rank 10th.

Green Bay ranks 29th in run defense EPA per designed rush, but as I pointed out, New England is only 22nd in EPA per designed rush, so they might not have the running game to take advantage of the matchup.

In an even matchup like this, taking the points with the Packers, given some key injury-report advantages and the rest advantage, is appealing.