LSU vs. Clemson, Current Betting Odds:
- LSU -10.5 points
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LSU vs. Clemson Best Bet Prediction:
- LSU -10.5
Lane Kiffin‘s team has a significant talent advantage over Dabo Swinney‘s squad, so let's bet LSU against the spread.
When Clemson Is on Offense
Dabo Swinney loves hiring from within the Clemson family, so when he decided to move on from offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, he went back to old friend Chad Morris.
Riley was a rare hire with no prior ties to Clemson and, while he modernized the Clemson offense in some ways, it never all came together.
So in steps Morris, who was Clemson's coordinator from 2011 through 2013 (the Tajh Boyd era) when Swinney first got the program rolling.
Morris left Clemson to be the head coach at SMU and then had a disastrous stint at Arkansas.
He last called plays at the college level as Gus Malzahn‘s offensive coordinator in 2020, a season in which Auburn ranked 90th in scoring offense.
That in part led to Malzahn's firing.
Based on his history and his offseason comments, we should expect Morris to lean heavily on the run game and the deep passing attack.
Traditionally, Morris has used spread formations to create light boxes for his ball carriers.
The last time he had full control of an offense in 2019 at Arkansas, his running backs faced a stacked box just 36% of the time, which would be an upgrade from Clemson's 45% rate a season ago.
However, LSU's defense, led by coordinator Blake Baker, will likely be up for the challenge of handling the spread rushing attack.
Although Baker likes to stack the box when he gets the opportunity, LSU allowed just 4.1 yards per attempt with a light box in 2025, ranked 13th in the country, per Sports Info Solutions.
LSU was especially effective against 11-personnel formations, allowing 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, ranked seventh.
11-personnel formations accounted for 70% of Morris' designed run plays in his final season at Arkansas.
Although there's a lot of turnover on the LSU roster, the overall talent appears to have been upgraded, and the return of linebacker Whit Weeks should help the unit remain strong.
There's also reason to doubt Clemson's offensive line, which lacks the proven production necessary to trust it against a strong defense in Week 1.
Check out the starting experience of Clemson's projected starting line:
- LT Brayden Jacobs – 4 games (1 at LT)
- LG Elyjah Thurmon – 2 games
- C Harris Sewell – 17 games (0 at center)
- RG Ronan O'Connell – 1 game
- RT Collin Sadler – 15 games
Clemson also has a relatively unproven commodity at running back with Gideon Davidson, who had just 60 carries as Adam Randall‘s backup a season ago.
Although the sample size is limited, Davidson was not able to create for himself when the offensive line failed to open up holes last year.
When contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, Davidson averaged just 0.9 yards per carry and was stuffed in the backfield 40% of the time, per Sports Info Solutions.
That's a steep drop-off from Randall, who averaged 2.0 yards per attempt with backfield contact last season.
Concern about Clemson's offensive line extends to the passing game as well, where the unit struggled to protect the quarterback last year.
Check out the pass-rush matchup based on these 2025 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Clemson: ranked 82nd in pressure rate allowed
- LSU: ranked 5th in pressure rate generated
It is hard to imagine Clemson closed that gap this offseason simply by promoting some of its younger players, while LSU went out and added several veteran starters from the transfer portal.
On a positive note, first-year starting quarterback Christopher Vizzina has plenty of talent to target.
Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore are the prototypical downfield weapons for Morris' offense.
Despite their talent, however, Wesco and Moore failed to make a substantial impact last year for Cade Klubnik.
When throwing 15 or more yards downfield, Klubnik completed just 40% of his attempts, according to Sports Info Solutions.
So while there's some talent on the Clemson offense, it's difficult to envision Vizzina immediately outperforming Klubnik, a fourth-round pick who made 49 career starts in college.
This appears to be a rebuilding year for all aspects of the Clemson offense, and LSU's veteran defense will be a tough matchup in Week 1.
When LSU Is on Offense
Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. are hoping to revive an LSU offense that got progressively worse during the Brian Kelly era.
After leading the nation in scoring in 2023, LSU declined each of the last two seasons.
They were 103rd in scoring offense last season.
LSU threw money at the problem this offseason, and there's more than enough talent for Kiffin to establish his typical offensive juggernaut.
Former Arizona State starter Sam Leavitt takes over at quarterback and will be throwing to a group of receivers featuring eight transfers.
Although the receiving corps might lack a superstar, that has never been an issue for Kiffin, who excels at creating open space for his receivers to produce after the catch.
Kiffin's unique scheme rarely has his quarterback taking traditional dropbacks, something which Leavitt is familiar with from his time at Arizona State.
Last year, Ole Miss quarterbacks used RPOs or zero/one-step dropbacks 54% of the time, the nation's seventh-highest rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
Leavitt's rate at Arizona State was 42% last season, above the FBS average of 36%.
This matchup should be a relatively easy warmup for Leavitt against a Clemson defense that struggled to generate pressure last year.
Despite two top-50 NFL draft picks on the defensive line (T.J. Parker and Peter Woods), Clemson's pass rush ranked 105th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Swinney dipped his toe in the transfer portal waters to fix the defensive line, but the only projected starter from the portal is Markus Strong, who generated a pitiful 3.6% pressure rate as a reserve defensive tackle at Oklahoma last year.
There's a lot we don't know about LSU's rebuilt offensive line, but the addition of left tackle Jordan Seaton, arguably the best all-around player to change schools this offseason, is reason enough to believe the unit can handle Clemson.
Clemson also lost some key members of the secondary, most notably second-round pick Avieon Terrell.
And since Swinney prefers not to trust transfers without connections to his program, his solution was to add Elliot Washington, a senior with one career start in three years at Penn State, where he played for coordinator Tom Allen in 2024.
Fortunately, one of the returnees to Clemson's secondary is Ashton Hampton, one of the top cornerbacks in the country.
Hampton and Terrell were key reasons why Clemson allowed 20 or more yards on just 7.0% of pass plays a season ago, the nation's ninth-lowest rate.
Clemson's defense also posted ordinary numbers against the run a season ago, though the return of standout linebacker Sammy Brown likely allows the unit to remain steady even if it doesn't make a leap in production.
Take a look at Clemson's opponent-adjusted numbers against the run:
- Ranked 64th in yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 61st in yards after contact allowed
LSU's rebuilt offensive line will play a role in just how good Kiffin's run game can be, but his spread offense typically allows for steady production on the ground.
LSU ranked 123rd in opponent-adjusted yards before contact generated in the run game last year, so a drastic turnaround is needed.
Even in Colorado's dreadful offense, ball carriers averaged 1.8 yards before contact per attempt when running to Seaton’s gap in the line, per Sports Info Solutions.
As a team, LSU running backs were provided just 1.3 yards before contact per attempt last year.
Perhaps the most important change brought on by Kiffin's offense will be the way his teams tend to keep things on track and avoid tough down-and-distance situations.
The simplicity of Kiffin's spread scheme diminishes negative plays, which allowed Ole Miss to end up in third-and-long situations on just 17% of their sets of downs, ranked ninth in the country last year.
LSU ranked 117th (28%).
Final Thoughts on LSU vs. Clemson Best Bets
There's a lot we don't know about LSU given all the transfers, but Kiffin accumulated more than enough talent to turn the Tigers into SEC contenders, so let's lay the points and bet LSU against the spread.
Clemson is a sinking ship, and Swinney has put little effort into modernizing the program for this new era of college football.
Reaching back into his past to hire Morris just looks like more evidence of Swinney digging in his heels and refusing to adapt.
This season will likely be another step back for the program, and there's little chance this roster has enough talent to be competitive with LSU.