LSU vs. Auburn, Current Betting Odds:
- LSU -7.5 points
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LSU vs. Auburn Best Bet Prediction:
- Auburn +7.5 points
This is a big number for an inconsistent LSU offense to cover on the road, so let's take the points and play Auburn against the spread.
LSU's Key Matchup on Offense
Lane Kiffin runs a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense and typically has one of the most explosive units in the country.
However, despite making significant investments in the transfer portal, it hasn't fully clicked for Kiffin's squad in his first year in Baton Rouge.
LSU enters this game ranked 71st in explosive offense, generating 20 or more yards on just 6.7% of plays.
One of the reasons for the struggles has been Sam Leavitt‘s mediocre play at quarterback, as he appears to be struggling to make the quick decisions necessary to thrive in Kiffin's offense.
During his time at Arizona State, Leavitt protected the ball well and threw just 9 interceptions in 20 starts over two years.
He's almost matched that number under Kiffin with 8 interceptions through seven starts.
Interception totals can be fluky in small sample sizes, but there's reason to believe Leavitt's elevated total is about more than bad luck.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, LSU's opponents have generated a 26% ball-hawk rate, ranked 126th per Sports Info Solutions.
So Leavitt is putting the ball in harm's way at a high rate on downfield throws, making the high interception total likely to continue.
It's also possible Leavitt's decision-making skills are affecting Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr‘s playcalling.
Take a look at these stats on the RPO game over the last two seasons for Kiffin and Weis:
- 2025 at Ole Miss: 23% RPO usage, 7.3 yards per RPO
- 2026 at LSU: 16% RPO usage, 5.0 yards per RPO
The decrease in RPO usage and the lack of production on RPOs is more evidence of Leavitt's inability to make the quick decisions necessary for Kiffin's offense to work as intended.
Auburn might struggle to keep pace if LSU forces this game into a shootout, but given Leavitt's inconsistent play, that might be difficult against a quality defense.
Auburn's Key Matchup on Offense
Auburn's offense relies on the legs of quarterback Byrum Brown, who followed head coach Alex Golesh from South Florida this offseason.
Brown leads Auburn in rushing and ranks fifth in the SEC with 548 rushing yards, excluding sacks.
LSU has faced a couple of athletic quarterbacks this season, but no one who runs as often as Brown.
When LSU did face better athletes like Texas A&M's Marcel Reed and Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, the Tigers had star linebacker Whit Weeks on the field.
Weeks is now out for the year with a broken leg.
To take advantage of Brown's athleticism, Auburn uses the read-option on 17% of its rushing attempts.
LSU has allowed 4.3 yards per attempt against the read-option this season (ranked 45th), but that only includes five plays since Weeks' injury, so it's hard to predict how the unit will respond in this matchup.
In addition to his running ability, Brown can affect the game with his athleticism by extending pass plays.
According to Pro Football Focus, Brown holds the ball for an average of 3.2 seconds per dropback, the nation's sixth-highest rate.
Brown's ability to extend plays leads to mixed results, however.
On one hand, it buys him time to attack downfield, but it also invites extra pressure, and he has a tendency to take bad sacks.
Brown has been sacked on 28% of his dropbacks versus pressure (ranked 125th), which is bad news against an LSU defense converting 31% of its pressures into sacks (ranked 3rd), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Final Thoughts on Auburn vs. LSU State Best Bets
Lane Kiffin is 13-13 in his career in SEC road games, so let's take the points and play Auburn against the spread.
Kiffin's teams at Ole Miss tended to lay an egg in these games, and his 0-2 mark on the road this season is evidence that he's brought that with him to LSU.