Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you their favorite same game parlays from that week’s action.
Same Game Parlays have grown in popularity in recent seasons as recreational gamblers are drawn to parlay bets.
Parlays are especially exciting for casual gamblers looking to win more than double the original bet.
The sportsbook edge or hold on parlays is greater than on single bets because the hold is compounded during each additional bet.
This edge can be reduced by selecting correlated outcomes, as the likelihood of both occurring together may be higher than what the sportsbook’s odds suggest.
By identifying correlated outcomes, there’s a potential to turn a fun and recreational bet into a +EV opportunity.
What is a same game parlay?
A same game parlay is a wager that combines multiple bet outcomes or “legs” from a single game. Combining these bets increases the risk and, therefore, the potential payout if every leg hits.
These wagers are very often correlated, meaning if one of the legs wins, it is more likely the other legs will win as well.
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Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions & Bets for Week 17
Seahawks vs. Panthers Same Game Parlay:
- Seahawks -7
- Ja'Tavion Sanders (Panthers) Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
- Kenneth Walker (Seahawks) 60+ Rushing Yards
The Panthers are 8-7, but they have a -50 point differential and rank in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play on both offense and defense.
In their eight wins, the Panthers average 148 rushing yards per game and have a rushing success rate of 43%, compared to a 34.2% rush success rate in losses.
The Seahawks rush defense is first in success rate and explosive rush rate.
The Panthers rank 30th in pass rate over expectation, so the Seahawks defense could provide problems for the run-first offense.
The Seahawks allow 69.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the third-highest yardage per game to opposing tight ends.
Since Week 8, the Panthers have allowed 24 explosive runs, the sixth most in the league.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay:
- Buccaneers -5.5
- Mike Evans (Buccaneers) 80+ Receiving Yards
- De'Von Achane (Dolphins) Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
Evans has a 37.3 target rate when Baker Mayfield is blitzed, the Dolphins are 6th in the league in blitz rate.
The Buccaneers are 30th in DVOA against running back targets allowing a league high 53.6 receiving yards to opposing running backs per game.
The Dolphins pass defense allows a league high 71.5% completion percentage and provides an avenue for success if the Buccaneers lean on the passing game to build a lead.
Bears vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay:
- Bears/49ers Over 52.5 Points
- Kyle Monangai (Bears) Over 43.5
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