Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you their favorite same game parlays from that week’s action.
Same Game Parlays have grown in popularity in recent seasons as recreational gamblers are drawn to parlay bets.
Parlays are especially exciting for casual gamblers looking to win more than double the original bet.
The sportsbook edge or hold on parlays is greater than on single bets because the hold is compounded during each additional bet.
This edge can be reduced by selecting correlated outcomes, as the likelihood of both occurring together may be higher than what the sportsbook’s odds suggest.
By identifying correlated outcomes, there’s a potential to turn a fun and recreational bet into a +EV opportunity.
What is a same game parlay?
A same game parlay is a wager that combines multiple bet outcomes or “legs” from a single game. Combining these bets increases the risk and, therefore, the potential payout if every leg hits.
These wagers are very often correlated, meaning if one of the legs wins, it is more likely the other legs will win as well.
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Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions & Bets for Week 8
Commander vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay:
- Commanders +10.5
- Bill Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
- Travis Kelce (Chiefs) Anytime Touchdown
The Chiefs' run defense has taken a step backward from last year and ranks 30th in EPA per rush on outside zone runs, a matchup the Commanders should be able to exploit and shorten the game.
National Tight Ends Day could spill into Monday Night Football; the Chiefs will make a concentrated effort to have at least one tight end score a touchdown.
On a per game basis, the Commanders are 26th in touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends, and Kelce leads the team in routes per dropback in the red zone.
He has 6 targets in the red zone this season, second to Marquise Brown.
The Chiefs are without two offensive line starters, which is amplified because the Commanders are eighth in pressure rate.
Additional Legs
Commanders/Chiefs Under 48.5
Chiefs games average 44.3 points per game, the absences of Josh Simmons and Trey Smith may limit the Chiefs' rushing success and how quickly Patrick Mahomes gets rid of the ball, forcing longer drives to score.
The addition of the under is negatively correlated with two over player props, which increases the multiplier.
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