Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you their favorite same game parlays from that week’s action.
Same Game Parlays have grown in popularity in recent seasons as recreational gamblers are drawn to parlay bets.
Parlays are especially exciting for casual gamblers looking to win more than double the original bet.
The sportsbook edge or hold on parlays is greater than on single bets because the hold is compounded during each additional bet.
This edge can be reduced by selecting correlated outcomes, as the likelihood of both occurring together may be higher than what the sportsbook’s odds suggest.
By identifying correlated outcomes, there’s a potential to turn a fun and recreational bet into a +EV opportunity.
What is a same game parlay?
A same game parlay is a wager that combines multiple bet outcomes or “legs” from a single game. Combining these bets increases the risk and, therefore, the potential payout if every leg hits.
These wagers are very often correlated, meaning if one of the legs wins, it is more likely the other legs will win as well.
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Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions & Bets for Week 16
49ers vs. Colts Same Game Parlay:
- Jonathan Taylor (Colts) 110+ Rushing Yards
- Kendrick Bourne (49ers) 40+ Receiving Yards
This Same Game Parlay is built around the 49ers' defensive woes, especially the inability to stop opposing running backs over the past month.
Since Week 10, after the loss of Mykel Williams, the 49ers' defense ranks last, allowing 2.03 yards before contact on running back carries.
The 49ers allowed 3 carries of 20 or more yards last week to Tony Pollard after limiting opposing running backs to 4 carries of 20 or more yards all season.
The 49er rush defense ranks 28th in success rate on the season, but 32nd since Week 10.
On intermediate passes between 10 and 19 yards, the 49ers offense ranks seventh in EPA per attempt, and the Colts secondary ranks 21st.
Kendrick Bourne has hauled in 15 of his 17 targets this season between 10 and 19 air yards.
With Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward sidelined, the outside cornerbacks are a weakness for this Colts defense.
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