Every week during the NFL season, our experts will give you their favorite same game parlays from that week’s action.
Same Game Parlays have grown in popularity in recent seasons as recreational gamblers are drawn to parlay bets.
Parlays are especially exciting for casual gamblers looking to win more than double the original bet.
The sportsbook edge or hold on parlays is greater than on single bets because the hold is compounded during each additional bet.
This edge can be reduced by selecting correlated outcomes, as the likelihood of both occurring together may be higher than what the sportsbook’s odds suggest.
By identifying correlated outcomes, there’s a potential to turn a fun and recreational bet into a +EV opportunity.
What is a same game parlay?
A same game parlay is a wager that combines multiple bet outcomes or “legs” from a single game. Combining these bets increases the risk and, therefore, the potential payout if every leg hits.
These wagers are very often correlated, meaning if one of the legs wins, it is more likely the other legs will win as well.
Same Game Parlay Picks, Predictions & Bets for Divisional Round
Bills vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay:
- Bills/Broncos 1st Half Under 22.5
- James Cook (Bills) 40+ 1st Half Rushing Yards
This same game parlay is built around the Bills returning to a run-centric approach to start the game.
The Bills' receiver room lost Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers.
Dalton Kincaid is also banged up, so the Bills should try to control the ball in a lower-scoring game.
In the regular season, 18.3% of Josh Allen‘s passes to wide receivers were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which only trailed Patrick Mahomes.
On Sunday against the Jaguars, 30.4% of Allen's wide receiver targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage, increasing Allen's completion rate and keeping the clock running more frequently.
Cook had 100% of the running back carries on Sunday.
Throughout the first 17 weeks of the season, he handled 84.3% of the first half running back carries.
49ers vs. Seahawks Same Game Parlay:
- 49ers/Seahawks Over 45.5
- Brock Purdy (49ers) 250 Yards Passing
- Jauan Jennings (49ers) Anytime Touchdown
This same game parlay is built around the notion that the 49ers defense is depleted, and the passing game provides the best opportunity for success against the Seahawks defense.
In the Week 18 matchup, the Seahawks offense had a 50% success rate (78th percentile) and 15.2% explosive play rate (90th percentile), which were masked by an early turnover on downs and a pair of missed field goals.
49er running backs combined for a 10% success rate in Week 18 against the league's top rush defense in DVOA.
Without George Kittle on the field this season, the 49ers average 3.2 yards per carry, a 20% dip in yards per carry compared to when Kittle is on the field.
On passes thrown into the end zone, Jennings has a 33.3% target share this season and leads the team with 9 end zone targets.
Kittle tied for second, which could provide a boost for Jennings.
Texans vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay:
- Woody Marks (Texans) 3+ Receptions
- Stefon Diggs (Patriots) 5+ Receptions
C.J. Stroud has targeted Marks on 17.8% of routes this season.
However, that jumps to 23.6% with Nico Collins off the field.
Marks eclipsed 20 receiving yards in 4 of the opening 7 games of his career.
There is potential that his receiving skills will be utilized in this matchup.
Running backs were targeted at the third-highest rate in the league by Patriots opponents.
Diggs caught 83.3% of the targets from Drake Maye this season, including a team high 25 targets and 80% reception rate when Maye was pressured.
Diggs has split time outside and in the slot, providing the Patriots with the opportunity to get creative and lean on their talented veteran receiver in the playoffs.
Rams vs. Bears Same Game Parlay:
- Rams/Bears Over 48.5 Points
- Luther Burden (Bears) 50+ Receiving Yards
- Davante Adams (Rams) Anytime Touchdown
This same game parlay is built around the idea that two offensive geniuses can game plan around potential cold temperatures.
Despite his anti-hero persona, Ben Johnson coaches football games to win, as evidenced by his aggressive fourth down play calling against the Packers.
Burden is averaging 4.9 yards per route when the Bears use play action and has caught 91% of his targets.
The Rams defense ranks 24th in EPA per attempt against play-action passes.
A end of the game hand shake took over post game headlines instead of the fact that the Packers squandered a 21-3 halftime lead, which provides a perfect narrative for the ex-Packer wide receiver to score a touchdown this week.
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