As the 2024 NFL season kicks off, anticipation is running high for what promises to be a thrilling year of football.
Teams across the league have made bold moves in the offseason, with blockbuster trades, intriguing draft picks, and strategic coaching changes all setting the stage for a season filled with high stakes and unpredictability.
For bettors, this means a landscape ripe with opportunities but also challenges.
The key to navigating this season will be understanding the evolving dynamics of the teams, the impact of emerging stars, and how the changing rules and strategies are likely to influence outcomes on the field.
Here are some season-long wagers to consider for the upcoming season.
Win Total Prediction: New England Patriots Under 4.5 Wins
As the 2024 NFL season approaches, the spotlight is on teams who could make a Super Bowl run.
I’m looking at the opposite end of the spectrum to three teams with the lowest season win totals and my projection for each.
The New England Patriots enter this season with a daunting outlook after one of the least impressive offensive performances last year.
The Patriots are projected to finish under 4.5 wins as they embark on a challenging rebuilding phase focused on developing young talent and improving their roster over time. Last year’s issues, including a lack of offensive firepower, quarterback instability, and offensive line struggles, persist into this season.
Despite bringing in Jacoby Brissett, now on his fifth team, and rookie quarterback Drake Maye, the Patriots still face significant challenges.
Their offensive line is considered one of the worst in the league, ranked 30th heading into Week 1, and they are projected to have the second most difficult schedule, facing strong defenses and high-caliber opponents.
The AFC East is particularly strong, with the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets all posing significant threats.
Moreover, the Patriots have the fourth most travel miles in the league, including cross-country trips to face the Cardinals and the 49ers, with a bye week that doesn’t come until Week 14.
While Maye could potentially be the long-term answer at quarterback, it’s a tall task given the current state of the team, which enters the season ranked bottom three in unit rankings for quarterback, offensive line, and receivers.
With all these challenges ahead, it’s hard to see where the wins will come from.
Win Total Prediction: Carolina Panthers Over 5.5 Wins
Bryce Young, who faced challenges in his rookie season with a completion percentage of just 59% and a passer rating of 73.7, is poised for improvement under the guidance of new head coach Dave Canales.
Canales has a proven track record of developing quarterbacks, which should benefit Young significantly. The Panthers have bolstered their offensive line by adding Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, aiming to provide Young with better protection and improve upon the 52 sacks allowed last season.
Additionally, the acquisition of Diontae Johnson from the Steelers offers Young a reliable receiving option. Johnson has consistently been a top target, with over 80 receptions in each of the past three seasons.
Defensively, the Panthers were a top-five unit in yards allowed last season, conceding just 310 yards per game, which suggests potential for further improvement.
With the fourth-easiest schedule in the league and competing in the relatively weak NFC South division, the Panthers are well-positioned to capitalize on their strengths and make significant strides in the upcoming season.
Win Total Prediction: Denver Broncos Under 5.5 Wins
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix enters the season facing significant challenges, particularly due to a lack of depth in the receiving corps that could hinder his ability to effectively lead the offense.
The Denver defense, despite having standout cornerback Patrick Surtain II who earned a Pro Bowl selection with four interceptions last season, is plagued by the absence of other playmakers.
This deficiency was starkly highlighted when the defense allowed a staggering 70 points in a single game against the Miami Dolphins, contributing to their overall ranking of 28th in points allowed per game.
Compounding these issues is the Broncos’ tough schedule, which includes matchups against formidable AFC North teams, the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, and other potential playoff contenders like the Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets.
These factors collectively present a daunting challenge for the Broncos as they navigate the upcoming season.
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Win Total Prediction: Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 Wins
The Indianapolis Colts are poised for a potentially successful 2024 season, with several factors contributing to why they could exceed 8.5 wins. I’ll also look to them to win the AFC South (+325).
Shane Steichen’s Leadership
Head coach Shane Steichen is entering his second year with the Colts, bringing continuity and a well-established system to the team.
Steichen has a proven track record of developing quarterbacks.
He played a significant role in the development of Justin Herbert with the Los Angeles Chargers, helping him earn the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He also contributed to Jalen Hurts‘ success with the Eagles, where Hurts became a second-team All-Pro.
Steichen’s approach involves building the offensive system around the quarterback’s strengths, which could be a boost to Anthony Richardson’s potential.
If Anthony Richardson Remains Healthy…
Richardson was drafted fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, largely due to his exceptional athleticism. He possesses a rare combination of size, speed, and arm strength, which allows him to be a dual-threat quarterback.
During his rookie season, Richardson demonstrated his potential by completing 59.5% of his passes for 577 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also rushed for 136 yards and 4 touchdowns, showcasing that dual-threat capability.
Unfortunately, Richardson’s year was cut short due to a shoulder sprain that required surgery. He also suffered a concussion earlier in the season.
Favorable Schedule
There are durability concerns. However, with recovery behind him, and star running back Jonathan Taylor back to complement Richardson’s mobility, the Colts could thrive against what is projected to be the seventh-easiest schedule in the league.
The Colts will have early season challenges against the Texans, AFC South champs in 2023, followed by the Packers, another 2023 playoff contender.
However, the Colts have a promising opportunity for a strong finish particularly in their late-season stretch starting from Week 13, getting the Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Giants, and Jaguars, the only team projected to have a winning season.
A Week 14 bye is well-timed, allowing the Colts to capitalize on the winnable games that follow.
AFC South Landscape
The AFC South is competitive but not insurmountable.
While the Texans are considered strong contenders, the Jaguars and Titans have their own challenges.
The Jaguars struggled toward the end of the 2023 season, and the Titans are in a rebuilding phase.
This opens the door for the Colts to capitalize on any slip-ups by their division rivals.
Win Total Prediction: Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 Wins
While I am picking the Colts to overperform, I expect the Browns to underwhelm and finish under 8.5 wins.
Injuries & Player Health
The Browns have been significantly impacted by injuries, particularly to crucial players like Nick Chubb and Jack Conklin, both of whom suffered season-ending knee injuries in 2023.
Chubb, a vital component of the Browns’ offense, is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and is expected to miss the early weeks of the season.
Jedrick Wills Jr, another starting tackle, is also on the PUP list, which could affect the protection for quarterback Deshaun Watson and the effectiveness of the running game.
Deshaun Watson’s Inconsistency
Watson’s performance since joining the Browns has been inconsistent at best and has simply not matched the high standards he set during his time with the Texans.
In 2023, he played only six games, completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,115 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions with a passer rating of 84.3.
These numbers are a step down from his peak performance in Houston, where he had a passer rating of 112.4 in 2020.
Watson also only had eight big-time throws compared to 14 turnover-worthy plays, which highlights his difficulty in executing high-impact plays without risking turnovers.
Injuries have limited Watson’s availability and ability to develop chemistry with his receivers.
With Chubb missing the early weeks, a banged-up offensive line, and a lack of proven depth at the wide receiver position beyond Amari Cooper (new addition Jerry Jeudy has also struggled with injuries and inconsistency), Watson has more question marks than answers.
This is all while the Browns are projected to face the third most difficult schedule.
I’m considering this a “no-brainer” whether it comes to fruition or not.
Win Total Prediction: Detroit Lions Over 10.5 Wins
The Detroit Lions enter the 2024 season with sky-high expectations, building on their momentum from last year’s playoff run.
With a fortified roster and a coaching staff determined to capitalize on their upward trajectory, the Lions are poised to contend not just for the NFC North title but to make a deep postseason push.
One reason to love the over is the schedule setup. The Lions play a total of 14 indoor games or games under a retractable roof during the 2024 NFL season
Home Games at Ford Field:
- Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Week 2 vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
- Week 4 vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Week 8 vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 11 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 13 vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 14 vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 15 vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 18 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Away Games at Indoor Stadiums or Retractable Roofs:
- Week 3 @ Arizona Cardinals
- Week 6 @ Dallas Cowboys
- Week 7 @ Minnesota Vikings
- Week 10 @ Houston Texans
- Week 12 @ Indianapolis Colts
As a bettor, we love some indoor Jared Goff. He’s simply just a better quarterback.
Give him a controlled environment, free from adverse weather conditions such as wind, rain, or snow, and his strengths, such as accuracy and timing, result in better performance.
In his career, Goff has completed 67.5% of his passes in indoor games. That number falls to 62.4% in outdoor games.
Last year, he threw for 3,314 yards and 25 touchdowns in 12 indoor games.
The Lions had a strong 9-3 record in the indoor games Goff played.
NFL Futures Prediction: Chicago Bears to Miss the Playoffs
Caleb Williams, the 2024 No. 1 overall pick, brings a new level of excitement to the Chicago Bears.
The team is banking on his dual-threat ability, arm strength, and playmaking instincts to revitalize a franchise that has struggled offensively for years.
Williams’ arrival has injected new hope into the organization, with fans and analysts alike anticipating a significant leap forward.
But maybe pump the brakes. No one player can fix everything.
The offensive line needs to step up, and the schedule is a bit deceiving.
Offensive line questions
There will be a transition period for Williams, a rookie quarterback, behind an offensive line that gave up 50 sacks last year.
Is that more about Justin Fields, or is it an overall concern?
The line was plagued by injuries, which disrupted the consistency and cohesion necessary for effective line play.
Key players like Nate Davis and Teven Jenkins struggled with availability due to injuries.
Even so, there’s a lack of depth. While the Bears have attempted to bolster their roster, the frequent injuries have tested this depth significantly, forcing the team to rely on makeshift lineups during practices.
The lack of depth was evident during training camp, where the line struggled during drills, leading to sacks and offensive stalls.
Even when healthy, the Bears’ offensive line showed inconsistency. Larry Borom, who served as a swing tackle, faced difficulties against top pass rushers. There’s a clear need for stronger performances across the line.
Scheduling
According to Warren Sharp, the Bears are projected to play the third-easiest schedule this season, but I’m not convinced it will be that simple.
My concern lies in dealing with established veterans and playoff-caliber quarterbacks later in the year, which could be demanding for the Bears’ defense.
Yes, there is an easier part of the schedule where they face young quarterbacks like Washington’s Jayden Daniels and the Patriots’ Drake Maye.
However, the Bears also face established veterans like Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, and Jared Goff.
It’s also important to consider the divisional quarterbacks.
The Bears will face their NFC North rivals late in the season, with six of their final eight games against division opponents. Oh, and there are also high-profile matchups against the 49ers and Seahawks in that same stretch.
The expectation is for a rookie quarterback, behind a vulnerable offensive line, on a team with questions in the secondary, to win enough games early to put them in a playoff position.
Call it contrarian, but I like the Bears to miss the playoffs.