Ohio State vs. Texas, Current Betting Odds:
- Texas -1.5 points
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Ohio State at Texas Best Bet Prediction:
- Texas -1.5 points
Steve Sarkisian hit the portal hard this offseason, and the new additions might be enough to put them over the top, so let's take Texas against the spread in this rematch.
When Ohio State Is on Offense
Ohio State has traditionally run a pass-heavy offense under Ryan Day, though we're still learning what changes might come about with longtime NFL coach Arthur Smith taking over as Day's coordinator.
According to Campus2Canton, Ohio State had a pass rate 7.2% above expected last season based on situational data.
If the Buckeyes' opening-weekend win over Ball State is any indication, Smith will remain aggressive with the passing attack, as Ohio State threw the ball 54% of the time in a 56-3 blowout.
The key to Ohio State's passing game is protecting Julian Sayin.
When Sayin had time to throw last year, he surgically dismantled even the best defenses Ohio State faced, but he was more pedestrian against teams that consistently generated pressure.
Ohio State went 0-2 in games where Sayin was pressured at least 40% of the time (Indiana, Miami), and was undefeated against everyone else.
Sayin's issue in those losses was his inability to avoid sacks, which never appeared to be a problem earlier in the season.
During the regular season, Sayin took a sack on just 7.1% of his pressure, the nation's sixth-lowest rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
That rate jumped to 28% against Indiana and Miami.
Although this was not an issue against Texas last season 一 Sayin was not sacked in the game despite facing seven pressures 一 Ohio State was extremely conservative in its play calling during Sayin's starting debut.
On the year, Texas ranked 17th in sack conversion rate, turning 22% of pressures into sacks.
A similarly strong pass-rush performance is expected from the Longhorns this season due to the return of Colin Simmons, who generated 21 sacks through his first two years in Austin.
When Sayin has time in the pocket, expect him to take some shots downfield, potentially at a rate higher than his debut season.
Sayin was 6 for 8 on throws 15 or more yards downfield against Ball State, representing 32% of his attempts.
Those eight downfield throws matched his career high, set in Ohio State's loss to Miami last year.
Ohio State may have leaned on the downfield passing attack as a warm-up for Texas, knowing the secondary is potentially an area of weakness for the Longhorns.
Texas is breaking in a new duo at cornerback with Rutgers transfer Bo Mascoe and Kade Phillips, a sophomore who made three starts last season.
Mascoe faced Ohio State last season in Big Ten play, but the Buckeyes mostly avoided him as he faced just two targets in coverage.
The Buckeyes' offensive line will also be critical to the running game, and it's a potential concern after a slow start against Ball State.
In the first half against the Cardinals, Ohio State running backs were contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 54% of their carries and averaged exactly zero yards before contact per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Things improved in the second half (27% early contact rate), but with backups seeing significant second-half reps on both sides, it's hard to trust that improvement.
This development should concern Ohio State because Texas' run defense was among the best in the nation last season.
Texas ranked seventh in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed last year, and returned starting defensive tackles Alex January and Hero Kanu (a former Buckeye).
When Texas Is on Offense
The Texas offense struggled last year due to the lack of a consistent running game and Arch Manning‘s inability to throw downfield.
So Sark went on a transfer portal spending spree to surround Manning with the best talent available on the market.
The most notable additions were receiver Cam Coleman (Auburn) and running backs Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State).
Even if Manning fails to take the next step in his development, those additions should improve a Texas offense that only ranked 45th in explosive play rate a season ago, gaining 20 or more yards on 7.0% of plays.
The area where Manning needs to show improvement this season is his accuracy.
Based on route-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Manning's on-target rate was 4.7% below expected last year and 9.6% below expected when throwing to explosive routes (routes which average 20 or more yards per reception).
Manning's performance against Texas State did little to ease those concerns.
Although he connected on a few big plays down the field, he was also 2 for 5 with an interception when throwing to the intermediate level of the field (10 to 19 yards downfield), per Sports Info Solutions.
That area of the field was a problem for Manning in 2025, as his 72% catchable pass rate ranked 93rd out of 121 qualifiers.
Another reason for the inconsistent passing attack a season ago was the offensive line's inability to protect Manning.
Based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, here's how these two teams stacked up in the pass protection battle last year:
- Texas: ranked 109th in pressure rate allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 31st in pressure rate generated
To fix the issues, Texas added left guard Laurence Seymore (Western Kentucky) and right tackle Melvin Siani (Wake Forest).
Manning was pressured on just three of his 30 dropbacks in the season opener, but Texas State ranked 78th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate a season ago, so it's hard to jump to any conclusions based on that performance.
This is probably an area where Ohio State still holds an edge, though the Buckeyes are dealing with some roster turnover, having lost two of their top three leaders in pressures (Arvell Reese, Caden Curry) to the NFL.
The running game is also an area where Ohio State probably has an advantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from last season:
- Texas: ranked 106th in yards before contact
- Ohio State: ranked 31st in yards before contact allowed
- Texas: ranked 109th in yards after contact
- Ohio State: ranked 6th in yards after contact allowed
The additions of Smothers and Brown will help due to their explosive ability, but they are probably not the type of ball carriers who can overcome a shaky offensive line.
Take a look at their production when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage last year compared to former Texas starter Tre Wisner (now at Florida State):
- Wisner: 1.8 yards per attempt, ranked 72nd out of 151 running backs
- Brown: 1.7 yards per attempt, ranked 79th
- Smothers: 1.4 yards per attempt, ranked 103rd
And their rate of getting stuffed in the backfield on those carries:
- Brown: 40.8%, ranked 92nd
- Wisner: 41.1%, ranked 94th
- Smothers: 46.8%, ranked 128th
Texas allowed its ball carriers to get hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 44% of attempts last year, ranked 98th, and the portal additions don't appear to be the type of upgrades necessary to make a dramatic improvement.
In fact, Texas running backs faced early contact on 55% of their carries against Texas State and were stuffed in the backfield on 56% of those plays.
So last year's numbers for both the offensive line and running backs held true, even against weak competition.
Final Thoughts on Ohio State vs. Texas Best Bets
This should be another competitive game that comes down to the wire, but the athletes the Longhorns added on offense could be the difference this time around, so let's take Texas against the spread.