California vs. UCLA, Current Betting Odds:
- UCLA -2.5 points
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California vs. UCLA Best Bet Prediction:
- Cal +2.5 points
Both rosters were overhauled by new coaching staffs this season, but the quarterbacks stuck around, which gives the Golden Bears an edge. Take Cal against the spread.
When UCLA Is on Offense
UCLA hired James Madison head coach Bob Chesney to overhaul the struggling program.
Chesney, a defensive coach, brought his coordinator Dean Kennedy along to manage the offense.
Don't expect Kennedy to run James Madison's offense at UCLA, however, because Nico Iamaleava is still around and lacks the skill set to step directly into the role in which Alonza Barnett III thrived.
According to Campus2Canton, James Madison ran the ball at a rate 3.6% above expected last year, but much of that was Barnett.
Excluding sacks, Barnett carried the ball 7.6 times for 52.0 yards per game.
Although Iamaleava ran the ball at a similar rate, the majority of his carries were scrambles.
Iamaleava only had 28 designed runs for 121 yards last year, compared to 72 carries for 505 yards by Barnett.
The 5-foot-11 Barnett is built more like a running back than the lanky 6-foot-5 Iamaleava, so Kennedy likely will limit his exposure to hits more than Barnett.
Kennedy will, however, be able to rely on his running back, as Wayne Knight followed the coaching staff to UCLA.
A potential issue, however, is the degree to which Knight relied on the Dukes' offensive line.
James Madison running backs ranked sixth in the country in opponent-adjusted yards before contact gained, per Sports Info Solutions.
Chesney and Kennedy will probably turn UCLA into a more physical team eventually, but this offensive line appears to lack the experience.
At left tackle, UCLA is trusting South Alabama transfer Jordan Davis, who struggled as a run blocker in the Sun Belt.
Betting on a left tackle who couldn't even crack third-team All-Sun Belt to hold up in the Big Ten is a strange gamble.
At right tackle, UCLA is expected to start Hall Schmidt, a former starter at Boise State before he got benched during the 2025 season.
Chesney did bring two starters with him from James Madison, but one of them, Riley Robell, is making the switch from guard to center, which makes his contribution more of an unknown.
If the offensive line doesn't quickly gel, it will also cause problems in the passing game due to Iamaleava's struggles under pressure.
Take a look at some of Iamaleava's numbers against pressure, per Sports Info Solutions:
- 5.3 yards per attempt, ranked 106th out of 155
- 17.5% sack rate, ranked 93rd
- 28% positive EPA rate, ranked 96th
To be fair, Cal's pass rush was dreadful last year, but it's hard to imagine new head coach Tosh Lupoi not making his presence felt in that area immediately.
For starters, expect Cal to blitz more often.
Cal inexplicably ranked 113th in blitz rate a season ago (19%), an inexcusable mistake for a team lacking the athletes up front to create pressure without the blitz.
Oregon ranked 54th in blitz rate (30%), so improvement in that area should be expected.
Cal should also benefit from the return of three-year starter Nate Burrell, who missed the entire 2025 season due to injury.
When California Is on Offense
Cal's roster was overhauled by new head coach Tosh Lupoi, but the most significant move was keeping quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
As a true sophomore, JKS might already be the best quarterback in the ACC, and he'll have more talented receivers to help him out this year thanks to the additions of Ian Strong (Rutgers) and Chase Hendricks (Ohio).
The question facing Cal's offense, however, is how quickly JKS can adjust to new offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville.
The 30-year-old Somerville will be calling plays for the first time, joining the Bears after spending the last few seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It's hard to say what Somerville's offense will look like due to the lack of a consistent mentor throughout his career.
Here's a list of the coordinators Somerville has worked under in recent years:
- 2025: Josh Grizzard
- 2024: Liam Coen
- 2023: Dave Canales
- 2022: Kenny Dillingham
That list features three of the best young coaches in the college and pro games, so he's had some good mentors, but the lack of consistency makes it difficult to guess what type of offense he'll put together.
One feature that will probably remain consistent is heavy usage of RPOs.
Cal used RPOs at the nation's 25th-highest rate last year (28% of plays).
Dillingham's Arizona State squad ranked 15th, and Oregon ranked 30th.
That said, during his last season in college at Kentucky in 2023, Coen ran RPOs just 11% of the time.
The use of RPOs could play a key role in this game, though it's tough to know who it favors.
Take a look at how these teams fared in the RPO game last season based on data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Cal: ranked 124th in yards per play
- UCLA: ranked 95th in yards per play allowed
That looks like a toss-up, but James Madison ranked third in the country in defending RPOs under Chesney and defensive coordinator Colin Hitschler last year, so perhaps they have the scheme to quickly turn things around.
The primary reason Cal struggled with RPOs was the lack of production from its run game.
Bryan Harsin‘s pro-style offense invited stacked boxes, and Cal lacked the physicality in the offensive line and backfield to handle the scheme.
Cal running backs faced stacked boxes 58% of the time (29th-highest rate) while averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt on those plays (ranked 122nd).
None of Somerville mentors run a true spread offense, but most of them mix up their looks more frequently, which should make Cal's rushing attack less predictable.
Cal's rushing attack should also benefit from the addition of Adam Mohammed, a 220-pound ball carrier who was effective as Jonah Coleman‘s backup at Washington last year.
When adjusting for defenders in the box and the direction of the run, Mohammed gained 14% more yards after contact than expected.
Kendrick Raphael was Cal's workhorse last year and gained just 0.5% more yards after contact than expected.
Cal should also have more depth and change-of-pace ability in the backfield this year due to the additions of Ashten Emory (UTEP) and Carter Vargas (UC Davis).
Raphael averaged 55 snaps per game and took 76% of the handoffs last year, which likely affected his production.
The area where Cal has a clearer advantage is the deep passing attack.
Outside the red zone, Cal averaged 8.6 pass attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield, the ninth most in the FBS.
Despite a lack of weapons, JKS completed 52% of those throws, the nation's 12th-best rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
Further developing this area of JKS's game was probably the motivation behind signing Strong and Hendricks, who were valuable downfield weapons at their previous schools.
At Rutgers, Strong caught 64% of his catchable targets at that depth, while Hendricks caught 73% of his at Ohio.
UCLA's downfield pass defense wasn't terrible last year (49th in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield), but the Bruins also didn't add any notable pieces to the depth chart at cornerback this offseason.
Final Thoughts on California vs. UCLA Best Bets
This is a challenging game to predict because there is so much we don't know about both squads.
But the one thing we can be confident in is Cal's advantage at quarterback, so let's take the points and play Cal against the spread.
If this is a close game, JKS is a much safer bet to make a clutch play in the fourth quarter to lead his team to victory at home.