The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Packers and Bears.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 26.1 | 8 | Points/Gm | 24.5 | 10 |
| 25.6 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 18.8 | 6 |
| 66.3 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 60.9 | 19 |
| 58.9 | 8 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.8 | 13 |
| 5.6 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 11 |
| 6.1 | 30 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 5 |
| 47.04% | 6 | Rush% | 47.88% | 4 |
| 52.96% | 27 | Pass% | 52.12% | 29 |
| 43.85% | 19 | Opp. Rush % | 41.51% | 10 |
| 56.15% | 14 | Opp. Pass % | 58.49% | 23 |
- Since their Week 5 bye, the Bears are second in the NFL in EPA as a rushing offense (21.8).
- The Bears have a +17 turnover differential. The next closest teams are at +9.
- The Packers have allowed a league-low 20 points off turnovers.
- Green Bay has turned the ball over on 5.9% of their possessions, 2nd in the league.
- Green Bay is allowing 1.47 points per drive (5th) compared to 2.51 points per drive on the road (25th).
- The Packers have converted a league-high 49.3% of their third downs.
- Chicago leads the league in plays of 10 or more yards per game (14.4).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Jordan Love: Love has been a boom-or-bust fantasy option this season, and on Thanksgiving, it was all upside.
He completed 18 of 30 passes (60%) for 234 yards (7.8 Y/A) with 4 touchdowns against the Lions on the holiday.
Love threw 2 touchdowns on fourth down and another that traveled 58 air yards, the longest touchdown pass of Love’s career.
Love ended the week as the QB2 overall (25.8 points).
That was his third week as a top-five scorer and fifth QB1 scorer of the season.
He also has another five weeks at QB19 or lower.
Thursday was the first time Love had cleared 200 passing yards in a game since Week 9 and the second time over his past five games that he threw a touchdown pass.
Green Bay is sitting on a solid home team total if gamers view last week’s outcome as the start of a trend for Love cashing in more upside as a volatile option on the QB1/QB2 line.
The Chicago pass defense is also boom-or-bust.
The Bears lead the NFL in interception rate (4.5%) but also are allowing a 67.4% completion rate (26th), 7.6 yards per pass attempt (27th), 11.2 yards per completion (25th), and a 6.4% touchdown rate (29th).
The Bears have also not faced a robust quarterback schedule of late.
Since Week 7, they have faced Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley, Joe Flacco, Jaxson Dart, J.J. McCarthy, Mason Rudolph, and Jalen Hurts.
Love is easily the best passer they have faced over this run.
The Bears got Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back last week.
With two cornerbacks returning, they mixed things up, playing four different coverages on over 10% of their snaps against the pass.
They played Cover 3 on 35.3%, Cover 2 on 23.5%, Cover 1 on 17.6%, and Cover 0 on 11.8%.
Love has been at his best against man coverages, throwing for 7.4 Y/A (8th) and a 13.3% touchdown rate (4th), which was where he had the most success against the Lions.
Love threw 3 of his 4 touchdowns on Thursday against man coverage.
Caleb Williams: Williams did not have to do a lot of lifting last Friday in a tough matchup on the road in windy Philadelphia.
In the conditions, Williams ended up completing a season-low 47.2% (17 of 36) of his passes for 154 yards (4.3 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
He added 13 rushing yards on his way to a QB25 (9.5 points) scoring week.
Williams has not thrown for 7.0 yards per pass attempt in a game since Week 9 against the Bengals.
He always has an added out for fantasy as a runner, but we have been good at diagnosing when to pursue the spike weeks for Williams.
This is not one of those on the road with a team total below 20 points, leaving Williams as a floor-based QB2.
The Packers are allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and a 3.8% touchdown rate (9th).
They have been better at home, allowing a league-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt in Green Bay.
They have faced a good run of favorable opponents as well, facing J.J. McCarthy, Jalen Hurts, Bryce Young, and Jake Browning in their past four home games, but they also have Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels on their resume at home.
The Packers are 10th in pressure rate (38.4%), which we constantly monitor with Williams.
When pressured, Williams has completed a league-low 37.2% of his passes for 4.6 yards per pass attempt (31st).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |