The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Bills and Bengals.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Spread | -6.0 | ||
| 23.25 | Implied Total | 29.25 | ||
| 23.3 | 16 | Points/Gm | 28.1 | 5 |
| 31.2 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 13 |
| 60.8 | 20 | Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 12 |
| 65.3 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.6 | 4 |
| 5.2 | 20 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.0 | 5 |
| 6.3 | 32 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 20 |
| 33.88% | 32 | Rush% | 49.47% | 2 |
| 66.12% | 1 | Pass% | 50.53% | 31 |
| 46.05% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 48.01% | 29 |
| 53.95% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 51.99% | 4 |
- Buffalo averages a league-high 4.8 plays per game that gain 20-plus yards.
- The Bengals allow a league-high 4.8 plays of 20-plus yards per game.
- Buffalo has scored a league-high 14 touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
- The Bills have allowed 11 touchdowns from outside of the red zone, the 2nd-most in the league.
- The Bills are averaging 3.10 points per drive at home (second) compared to 2.06 points per drive on the road (17th).
- The Bills are 31st in EPA as a rush defense (-19.1).
- The Bengals are 30th in EPA against the run (-16.9).
- 60% (18 of 30) of the touchdowns allowed by Buffalo have been rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- 82.1% (23 of 28) of Cincinnati's touchdowns have been passing scores, the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen (TRUST): Allen is coming off a season-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt and 8.2 yards per completion in Pittsburgh last week.
That led to a season-low 123 passing yards.
Allen rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown, pushing him ahead of Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns (76) ever by a quarterback.
Even with that rushing score, Allen was the QB14 (16.7 points), finishing as a QB2 in back-to-back weeks for the second time this season.
Coming off challenging road games the past two weeks, Allen returns home in a great matchup.
At home this season, Allen has averaged a league-high 29.6 points per game with a low mark of 19.4 fantasy points.
Allen has a 115.9 rating at home (2nd behind Matthew Stafford), with league-highs in completion rate (73.8%) and yards per pass attempt (9.1) to go along with 13 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
Not only does Allen return home, but he draws a Cincinnati defense that is still expected to be without Trey Hendrickson.
The Bengals have saved some face the past two weeks in limiting Drake Maye (16 points) and Lamar Jackson (6.5 points), but they did allow 8.4 Y/A to Maye and escaped Thanksgiving night with some odd turnovers and a touchdown negated by a penalty.
Jackson also had guys open all night and was flat-out bad as a thrower with a league-high 25% inaccurate throw rate in Week 13.
Allen has a 9.1% inaccurate throw rate this season, 10th in the league.
I am nowhere near ready to suggest that this Cincinnati defense has truly turned a corner since we are only two weeks removed from them allowing 18.4 fantasy points to Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudolph.
These big games are typically where we see Allen take over.
Even with last week’s game, the Bengals are 30th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.502), allowing 7.9 Y/A (31st) and a 5.7% touchdown rate (27th).
Joe Burrow: Burrow was back on Thanksgiving for the first time since Week 2.
He was certainly rusty, completing 52.2% of his passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt, but the Bengals let him loose.
Burrow dropped back 49 times (second most in Week 13) as the Bengals threw the ball 3% over expectations.
He started slowly, completing 46.9% (15 of 32) of his passes in the first half for 5.2 Y/A, but got better as the game went on.
In the second half, Burrow was 9 of 14 (64.3%) for 96 yards (6.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns, highlighted by a 29-yard strike to Andrei Iosivas.
When the dust settled, Burrow closed the Week as the QB11 (19.2 points).
Burrow playing in this game gives the game environment a lot of juice.
There is obviously upside here for this game to shoot out, but Burrow was also a borderline QB1 in a better matchup last week.
I am still treating him as an upside QB1 in that area.
Buffalo has been much better on defense against the pass than against the run.
They have not allowed a 20-point scorer to a quarterback since Week 1, allowing a 59.7% completion rate (fourth), 6.6 yards per pass attempt (8th), and a 3.7% touchdown rate (8th).
That includes facing Drake Maye (12.1 points) and Patrick Mahomes (10.5 points).
Burrow has only faced Sean McDermott twice in his career.
Both were Bengals wins, including a playoff win in Buffalo.
In those outings, Burrow scored 20.8 and 22.3 fantasy points.
Burrow has a couple of bonus factors that can add upside.
The first is getting Tee Higgins back.
In 2024, Burrow completed 72.8% of his passes for 8.2 Y/A and a 7.2% touchdown rate with Higgins on the field (441 dropbacks) compared to completing 66.9% of his passes for 6.5 Y/A and a 5.6% touchdown rate with Higgins off the field (280 dropbacks).
Buffalo is also expected to be without Joey Bosa, who suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday.
The Bills have faced 113 dropbacks without Bosa on the field, dipping from sixth in pressure rate (39.3%) with Bosa on the field to 16th without (36.3%).
On those dropbacks without Bosa, they have allowed a 67.7% completion rate (27th) for 8.1 Y/A (31st).
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn MoreMore Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |