The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Broncos vs. Panthers Week 9 matchup.
Find a breakdown of every Week 9 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Carolina | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.0 | Spread | 3.0 | ||
| 23.25 | Implied Total | 20.25 | ||
| 21.5 | 22 | Points/Gm | 25.4 | 9 |
| 20.6 | 11 | Points All./Gm | 27.6 | 28 |
| 57.0 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 66.6 | 3 |
| 69.5 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.1 | 25 |
| 4.8 | 27 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 12 |
| 5.1 | 10 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 43.0% | 19 | Rush% | 36.3% | 30 |
| 57.0% | 14 | Pass% | 63.7% | 3 |
| 41.0% | 12 | Opp. Rush % | 44.7% | 20 |
| 59.0% | 21 | Opp. Pass % | 55.3% | 13 |
- The Broncos are a league-best 5-0 in one-score games this season, and 17-3 in one-score games going into last season.
- The Broncos have led for 28.3% of their offensive snaps, 22nd in the league. Only the Browns (17.8%) have led for a lower rate among teams with a winning record.
- Denver is a league-best 4-0 against the spread as a favorite this season.
- Carolina home games are 3-0 to the over this season, the highest rate in the league.
- The Broncos average a league-low 5.1 plays per possession.
- Carolina is last in points-off-turnover margin (-24) over the past four weeks.
- Denver has converted 9 of 48 (18.8%) third downs over the past four weeks, the league's lowest rate.
- Carolina has allowed a 46.4% third-down conversion rate, 28th in the league.
- The Panthers have allowed a league-high 80% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone (16 of 20).
Trust = spike production for that player
Broncos vs. Panthers Fantasy Quarterback Preview
Bryce Young
Young is coming off QB28 (5.4 points) and QB19 (10.4 points) performances in his last two games against Tampa Bay and Green Bay.
He has lost some steam after a hot start, completing fewer than 60% of his passes in four of his past five games.
Young is 24th in completion rate below expectations over that stretch (-3.7%) and 25th in adjusted EPA per play (0.0).
The Carolina offensive line has caught up to this passing game in tougher spots, potentially slowing Young's promising breakout in a new, aggressive offense.
Young has been pressured on 45.6% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.
Both tackle spots have been problem areas for the line.
49.5%% of Young's pressures have come from the tackle spots.
Left tackle Rasheed Walker has allowed 31 pressures, the most of any tackle in the league.
Monroe Freeling has allowed 20, the next-highest total on the team despite not playing full time, but he is being forced to with Taylor Moton lost for the season.
Damien Lewis has been dealing with a knee injury that caused him to miss Week 8.
Young has also been battling his own knee issue, which has limited his mobility.
Young is scrambling on a career-low 2% of his dropbacks.
When Young has been pressured in the past five games, he has completed 42.5% of his passes (24th) for 5.5 Y/A (20th) with a 19.2% sack rate (18th).
The past two weeks against the Bucs and Packers, Young has gone 10 of 26 (38.5%) for 108 yards (4.2 Y/A) with 11 sacks when pressured.
The Panthers adjusted last week, leaning more on the run to insulate the line and avoid negative plays.
They threw the ball 3% below pass-rate expectations in Week 8, their first game with a pass rate below expectations this season.
I don't want to say we can't get back on track here and throw Young's potential breakout in the trash moving forward, but in the short term, things don't get much easier from a matchup perspective, leaving Young as a QB2.
Carolina draws its third straight top-10 pass defense.
Denver is third in the NFL in pressure rate (42.7%).
The Broncos are a battle-tested pass defense this season, facing Patrick Mahomes twice, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, and Trevor Lawrence.
They are eighth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.36), allowing a 58.7% completion rate (2nd), 6.5 Y/A (8th), and a 3.6% touchdown rate (7th).
Bo Nix
It wasn't clean and required another late-game flurry, but Nix delivered another solid fantasy line Sunday against the Chiefs, finishing QB12 (19.3 points).
He's been a top-12 scorer in back-to-back weeks, though both outings have been sloppy.
In the end, everything in our game is cosmetic, but the way Nix has been getting his fantasy points doesn't inspire confidence that he's more than a matchup-based QB2.
Nix is averaging 3.9 air yards per completed pass, the lowest rate in the league.
After one week of attempting to push the ball downfield against Arizona, Nix was back to 3.6 air yards per pass attempt on Sunday.
28.4% of his passes have gone 10 or more yards downfield.
Tanner McKee is the only quarterback with a lower rate (25.2%).
Nix is throwing between the numbers on 39% of his passes.
Malik Willis is the only quarterback with a lower rate (38.2%).
The Panthers are in a transition period this week after letting defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero go.
Todd Wash was named interim defensive coordinator.
Wash has been the Carolina defensive line coach since 2023.
He has not called defense since he was with the Jaguars from 2016 to 2020.
Evero gave us a great game-to-game baseline, making very few alterations to game planning for specific opponents.
We will see if Wash makes any abrupt changes in his first week on the job.
Carolina has not been a terrible pass defense, allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt (7th), 10.2 yards per completion (5th), and a 4.2% touchdown rate (16th).
They have allowed only three QB1 scoring weeks, but they also had a favorable schedule, facing Cooper Rush, Deshaun Watson, and Tanner McKee.
Baker Mayfield did not need to pass two weeks ago.
Outside of them, Caleb Williams (9.3 Y/A), Jared Goff (412 yards), and Jordan Love (73.2% completion rate and 3 touchdowns) all found success through the air.
Broncos vs. Panthers Fantasy Running Back Preview
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More Week 9 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Week 9 NFL Games | Time |
|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Ravens | Thursday Night Football |
| Bengals vs. Falcons | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Jets @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Patriots | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Buccaneers @ Bears | Sunday Night Football |
| Bills @ Vikings | Monday Night Football |