Browns vs Jets: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 2

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets Monday night game on September 16, 2019 at 8:15 pm ET.
ClevelandRank@NY JetsRank
-2.5Spread2.5
24Implied Total21.5
1327Points/Gm1626
4331Points All./Gm179
6315Plays/Gm669
566Opp. Plays/Gm6318
31.8%24Rush%31.8%23
68.3%9Pass%68.2%10
50.0%26Opp. Rush %39.7%17
50.0%7Opp. Pass %60.3%16
  • Le’Veon Bell played 100% of the snaps in Week 1.
  • Jamison Crowder accounted for 40% of the Jets’ targets in Week 1, the highest rate in the league.
  • With 99 yards receiving, Crowder posted the lowest amount of yardage in league history for a wide receiver on 14 or more receptions.
  • Sam Darnold’s 6.3 yards per completion were the lowest of all starting quarterbacks in Week 1. League average was 12.1 yards per completion outside of him.
  • Baker Mayfield was sacked on 41.7% (5-of-12) of his pressured dropbacks in Week 1 after being sacked on just 16.2 percent in 2018.
  • Cleveland is 2-5 (4-3 ATS) on the road with Mayfield as their starting quarterback. 
  • Opposing teams targeted their wide receivers versus the Jets 69.1% of the time in 2018, the highest rate in the league. In Week 1, Buffalo targeted their receivers 66.7% of the time, eighth highest in Week 1.
  • The Browns used three wide receivers on 94% of their snaps in Week 1 (second in the league). That mark was 62 at percent in 2018.

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Le’Veon Bell: All of the talk about easing him in and Ty Montgomery was just chatter as Bell did what he did while he was in Pittsburgh and stayed on the field for every snap. Bell had 23 touches and nine targets in the passing game. That amount of dual-usage opportunities carry significant fantasy weight regardless of efficiency. Cleveland allowed 172 yards from scrimmage in Week 1 to the Tennessee backfield. *Bell is missing practice Thursday with a shoulder injury and due for an MRI. Keep tabs on his progress. If he is unable to play, Ty Montgomery would be an RB2 option in full-PPR formats.
  • Odell Beckham: He received 28.9% of the team targets (7-71-0) in Week 1. The lack of deep shots — Beckham had a lower depth of target than Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins — is something that will correct itself. Beckham draws a Jets secondary that was picked on by opposing wideouts in 2018 and they then allowed 14 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown the Bills receivers, including a 7-123-1 line to the primary target in John Brown.
  • Nick Chubb: He had 20 touches (three receptions) in a game the Browns lost by 30 points while getting vulture on the goal line by Dontrell Hilliard. Hilliard suffered a concussion in the game and is in jeopardy of missing Monday night, leaving Chubb to once again shoulder a heavy workload in a game where the Browns will now have increased odds to control game script.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Baker Mayfield: He was flat-out awful in Week 1, but a reasonable bounce back is in order. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in six of his seven games on the road to start his career.
  • Jarvis Landry: He trailed Beckham in targets (seven), turning them into four catches for 67 yards. Running 89% of his routes for the slot, the Jets allowed seven receptions for 64 yards to wide receivers from the slot in Week 1.
  • Jamison Crowder: You can’t ignore 17 targets, even if they come with minimal yardage. With Quincy Enunwa out, Demaryius Thomas just joining the team, and Chris Herndon still suspended, the crux of the Jets’ passing game still goes through Crowder, Bell, and Robby Anderson. The change over from Darnold dings Crowder a bit, but not so much that it still changes his overall outlook a ton since he was always a volume-based floor WR3 play.
  • David Njoku: A one-yard touchdown grab got him into TE1 status in Week 1 despite just 37 yards on four receptions. But his 15.8% target share was higher than where it was under Kitchens a year ago.

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Robby Anderson: He had just 3.3 yards per target on seven opportunities Sunday, but Darnold did him no favors by missing him for a potential 46-yard score and leaving another short. Those are the types of high-variance targets Anderson gets, but he showed no effects from his calf injury, playing 96% of the snaps on Sunday. The change over to Siemian aids Crowder more than Anderson. Siemian ranked 20th in percentage of passes 20-plus yards downfield in 2017 at 11.7 percent with just three touchdown passes on those throws. This leaves Anderson as a volatile WR4 option that needs to hit a big play.
  • Trevor Siemian: The last time that Siemian started was in 2017 when he threw 11 touchdown passes to 14 interceptions. He’s plenty capable as a backup of keeping the likes of Crowder and Anderson as options that can still find some production, but Siemian himself has been a top-12 fantasy option in just six of his 24 career starts and the QB17 or lower in 17.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Ryan Griffin: You’re not going to this deep in many leagues, but Griffin played 94% of the offensive snaps Sunday and ran the most pass routes (43) in the league at the tight end position. The downside is that he only had three catches for 10 yards on four targets, but he did have a touchdown called back and Cleveland rolled over their tight end coverage issues in Week 1, allowing Tennessee tight ends to catch 6-of-8 targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Rashard Higgins: He left the game for a portion of the time with a knee injury, but did return (catching just two passes for 46 yards). With the Browns primarily staying in the three-wide receiver sets for nearly all of their offensive snaps, Higgins is going to be on the field nearly the entire game as well.

More Week 2 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

TB at CAR | SF at CIN | LAC at DET | MIN at GB | IND at TEN | NE at MIA | BUF at NYG | SEA at PIT | DAL at WAS | ARI at BAL | JAX at HOU | KC at OAK | CHI at DEN | NO at LAR | PHI at ATL | CLE at NYJ

 

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