Eagles vs Falcons: Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 2

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons Sunday night game on September 15, 2019 at 8:20 pm ET.
26.25Implied Total24.75
2719Points All./Gm2822
589Opp. Plays/Gm492
22.4%3Opp. Rush %77.6%32
77.6%30Opp. Pass %22.5%1
  • These two teams have met in Philadelphia in each of the past three seasons under Doug Pederson and Dan Quinn, with the Eagles winning and covering all three. 
  • Each of those three matchups had the total score falling 9.5 points, 15 points, and 14.5 points below the over/under in those matchups.
  • In those three matchups, Julio Jones posted lines of 10-169-0, 9-101-0 and 10-135-0. 
  • Jones has a receiving touchdown in five consecutive games dating back to last season, the longest active streak in the league and matches the longest streak of his career.
  • After ranking 30th in points allowed to opposing wide receivers in 2018 (41.0 per game) and 24th in 2017 (33.3), Philadelphia allowed the 22nd most in Week 1 (52.5).
  • DeSean Jackson was targeted on 40% (6-of-15) of his routes from the slot in Week 1, tied with Keenan Allen for the highest rate in the league. He caught 5-of-6 of those targets for 119 yards and two touchdowns.
  • The 172 rushing yards allowed by Atlanta in Week 1 were the most they’ve allowed in a season opener since 2002 (211 yards).

Trust (spike production for that player)

  • Julio Jones: He pulled out a touchdown in what was expected to be one of his toughest matchups of the season. He now gets what is anticipated to be one the best as the Eagles have steadily been content with Jones beating them and focusing on shutting down the Falcons elsewhere.

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)

  • Matt Ryan: Ryan has posted just 12.7, 12.4, and 8.8 fantasy points in the three matchups between these regimes. With all three of those previous matchups meeting in Philadelphia with Nick Foles starting in two, I like this game to be higher scoring. Ryan was excellent at home last season, averaging 306.4 passing yards and 24.2 fantasy points per game. There are still offensive line concerns for the Falcons, but Ryan belongs in the QB1 tier this week. 
  • Carson Wentz: Wentz hasn’t played in either of the past two meetings between these teams, only facing Dan Quinn’s defense as a rookie in 2016 (8.2 points). Healthy to begin the season, Wentz was the QB8 in Week 1 with 313 yards and three touchdowns.
  • Zach Ertz: With 17.9 percent of the team targets in Week 1, we saw a bit how Ertz will be squeezed by all the offseason additions the Eagles and by them having a healthy roster. Ertz sill caught 5-of-7 targets for 54 yards, but his volume stranglehold on the offense is no longer a weekly commodity. Ertz has lines of 5-48-0, 6-55-0, and 3-46-0 in his three meetings between these teams.
  • Calvin Ridley: A touchdown got him inside of the top-30 scorers in Week 1. He received the same number of targets (six) as Mohamed Sanu, so his 13% target share needs to separate more from the field or he’ll become a volatile WR3 option like he closed his rookie season. With the Falcons getting crushed on the road last week, that could just be a blip that expands moving forward. There’s nothing scary about the Eagles’ pass defense as they allowed Washington wideouts to 15-of-22 targets for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1.
  • DeSean Jackson: Another Week 1 smash for Jackson as he led the team in targets (10), catches (eight), and yards (154) with two scores. The pleasant surprise was to see the Eagles use him inside after he had just seven targets from the slot all of 2017. The Eagles’ lead-target distribution will likely rotate between Ertz, Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery over various weeks, but those are the players that the volume is going to orbit. 
  • Alshon Jeffery: He had two scores in Week 1 (one registered as a rushing touchdown). He remains a WR3 with upside option through scoring potential, but with 49 yards on five catches, Jeffery has now been held to fewer than 60 yards receiving in eight of his past 10 games played. 

Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)

  • Devonta Freeman: He trades one rough matchup for another in Week 2. At least he is at home here, but the fact that he was so non-usable in Week 1 (31 yards on 11 touches) gives pause to another objectively bad matchup. With rookie Chris Lindstrom placed on injured reserve, there’s another strike against him. In 2018, the Eagles were fifth in rushing points allowed to opposing backfields, but 28th in receiving points allowed. In Week 1, they were third in rushing points allowed (2.8) but 29th in receiving points (18.8) to backs. Freeman ran just 20 pass routes compared to 23 for Ito Smith, so he will need a wide split to take advantage if things are clogged up on the ground. Freeman will be a lower-end RB2/FLEX option in Week 2 that needs to find the end zone.
  • Austin Hooper: He landed with nine catches for 77 yards in Week 1 in what was a solid matchup heading in. This one isn’t as great with the Eagles ranking fourth in points allowed to tight ends a year ago and outside of that incredible effort by Vernon Davis on his 48-yard touchdown in Week 1, they allowed just three other receptions for 19 yards to Washington tight ends. Hooper has just four catches for 27 yards in his two non-rookie season games versus the Eagles.

If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play) 

  • Miles Sanders: Sanders played 36 snaps compared to 23 for Darren Sproles and 17 for Jordan Howard. He even ran the most pass routes (16) of the backfield, had two goal-line carries, and a 21-yard touchdown run called back due to penalty. He still takes a step of faith to elevate over FLEX status in what surely is going to remain a timeshare to a degree, but the Falcons struggled to stop the run in Week 1.

More Week 2 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

TB at CAR | SF at CIN | LAC at DET | MIN at GB | IND at TEN | NE at MIA | BUF at NYG | SEA at PIT | DAL at WAS | ARI at BAL | JAX at HOU | KC at OAK | CHI at DEN | NO at LAR | PHI at ATL | CLE at NYJ