The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Colts and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | Spread | 1.5 | ||
| 24.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 29.8 | 1 | Points/Gm | 24.3 | 11 |
| 20.8 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 21.1 | 12 |
| 60.0 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 64.8 | 5 |
| 66.2 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.0 | 14 |
| 6.3 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 26 |
| 5.2 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 10 |
| 43.89% | 15 | Rush% | 45.05% | 12 |
| 56.11% | 18 | Pass% | 54.95% | 21 |
| 38.04% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 34.56% | 1 |
| 61.96% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 65.44% | 32 |
- Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars are averaging 2.53 points per drive, 5th in the league. They were averaging 1.71 points per drive prior (27th).
- Jacksonville has converted 68.2% (15 of 22) of their red zone trips into touchdowns over that span (6th) after a 50% rate (11 of 22) prior (22nd).
- The Jaguars lead the league in the rate of passing plays to gain 10 or more yards over the past five weeks (33.8%).
- The Colts have scored a touchdown on 23.3% of their drives over the past four weeks (15th), down from a league-high 40.8% rate prior.
- Jacksonville is allowing 1.65 points per drive at home (9th).
- The Colts have allowed just 2 touchdowns from outside of the red zone, tied for the fewest in the league.
- 53.7% (22 of 41) of Indianapolis' touchdowns have been rushing scores, the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
- 75.9% (22 of 29) of the touchdowns allowed by Jacksonville have been passing scores, 3rd highest in the league.
- The Jaguars allow 28.0 rushing yards per game on runs of 10 or more yards, 2nd in the league.
- The Colts average 72.7 rushing yards per game on runs of 10 or more yards, 2nd in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Daniel Jones: Jones completed a season-low 51.9% of his passes (14 of 27) for 201 yards (7.4 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns against Houston.
Jones has scored 14 to 17 fantasy points in four straight games, living more as a floor-based QB2 than the spike-week QB1 he opened the season as.
Scoring 16.1 points (QB17) was still a usable week against the Texans, too, so don’t let that seem dismissive.
Jones was pressured on a season-high 57.1% of his dropbacks against Houston.
When pressured, he was 6 of 15 (40%) for 6.3 yards per attempt.
When he had a clean pocket, Jones was still effective, completing 8 of 12 passes for 107 yards (8.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.
A lot has been made about Jones playing through a stress fracture in his fibula.
We can no longer count on a rushing outlet for Jones for fantasy, forcing him to be hyper-efficient as a passer to score fantasy points.
Even with that injury, the Colts did not alter their passing game plan.
Jones was in the shotgun for 67.9% of his passing snaps, which was lower than his season average (81%).
The team still ran a lot of motion (85.7%) and play action (40.7%).
There is a path for this game to be high-scoring and make Jones an intriguing DFS play in stacks, but it also comes with volatility.
I prefer to use him as a high-end QB2 in managed leagues, but you can make a case for his game environment and matchup providing ceiling potential.
As noted, Indianapolis still used play action at a high rate last week, which has been a foundation of their passing game this year.
Jones has used play action on 34.7% of his dropbacks, second in the league.
Using play action, Jones has completed 71.8% of his passes (9th) for 9.3 Y/A (5th).
Without play action, Jones has completed 65.9% of his passes (15th) for 7.4 Y/A (6th).
Jacksonville has been more vulnerable to the play-action pass.
On non-play-action passes, they have allowed a 61.8% completion rate (8th) and 6.0 Y/A (third).
Against play-action passes, they have allowed a 66.4% completion rate (16th) and 7.9 Y/A (14th).
Jacksonville has faced a few passers using play action at a high rate in Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford, allowing QB1 scoring weeks to both of those quarterbacks.
Over their past eight games, the Jaguars have allowed six QB1 weeks, but they've also nuked Justin Herbert (3.3 points) and Cam Ward (6.3 points) during that span.
They are only allowing 6.5 Y/A over that span (8th), but a 5% touchdown rate (18th).
The Jaguars have been a pass funnel this season, facing the league’s highest pass rate.
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence kept up his strong fantasy production on Sunday, closing the week as the QB5 (21.7 points).
Lawrence has been the QB14 or better in seven of his past eight games, with six QB1 scoring weeks over that span.
Since Week 5, Lawrence is the QB8 in points per game (18.5).
The peripherals over that period are still sketchy, which is why he is also someone I would prefer to use as a higher-end QB2 and take on an upside outcome rather than lean into it.
Over those eight weeks, Lawrence has still only completed 60.6% of his passes (QB26) for 7.1 yards per pass attempt (QB17).
His best passing games have come against the Titans and Cardinals, but against the Rams (6.2 Y/A), Seahawks (6.1 Y/A), and Texans (6.9 Y/A), he was still a limited passer.
Where Lawrence has gotten over is through his mobility.
He is averaging 6.3 rushing points per game over his past eight games.
Lawrence is averaging 25.4 rushing yards per game over that stretch (QB9) with 5 rushing touchdowns (QB3).
The Colts have pushed teams to pass through game scripts, so we could get a game where both defenses spike passing volume.
That is how this game gets cooking and we have a shootout.
As noted with Jones, this is a game I am interested in stacking for DFS.
However, the Jaguars have not been interested in running this offense completely through Lawrence if it can be avoided.
The Jaguars are passing 3% below expectations over the past five weeks since their bye, with a 54.6% dropback rate in neutral scripts (22nd) over that span.
The Colts do have a solid pass defense if volume is muted.
Indianapolis is ninth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.379), allowing 6.9 Y/A (14th) with a 3.5% touchdown rate (5th), but they have faced a league-high 38.1 pass attempts per game.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |