The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Lions and Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Dallas | Rank | @ | Detroit | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Spread | -3.0 | ||
| 25.25 | Implied Total | 28.25 | ||
| 29.3 | 2 | Points/Gm | 29.2 | 3 |
| 28.5 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 22.8 | 15 |
| 64.8 | 4 | Plays/Gm | 61.6 | 16 |
| 63.5 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.0 | 14 |
| 6.1 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 2 |
| 5.9 | 28 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 12 |
| 40.49% | 26 | Rush% | 44.79% | 14 |
| 59.51% | 7 | Pass% | 55.21% | 19 |
| 42.13% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 43.72% | 18 |
| 57.87% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 56.28% | 15 |
- Dallas and Detroit are tied for the league lead in plays gaining 30-plus yards on offense (25).
- Detroit has allowed 24 plays of 30-plus yards, 31st in the league.
- The Cowboys (112.28) and Lions (107.82) are 1st and 2nd in fantasy points per game on offense.
- Dallas leads the league in EPA as a passing offense (117.8).
- Detroit is last in the league in EPA as a pass defense over the past four weeks (-37.1).
- 69.5% (41 of 59) of the scoring plays against Dallas have been touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- 72.4% (42 of 58) of the scoring plays for Detroit have been touchdowns, 2nd in the league.
- Dallas has scored 57.25 more points than their implied totals, 2nd in the league behind the Seahawks (67.25).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (TRUST): Dak stayed hot on Thanksgiving Day, throwing for 320 yards (8.2 Y/A) and 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs.
Prescott has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back weeks against the Chiefs and Eagles.
He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in seven of his past nine games.
Prescott has been the QB8 or higher in eight of his past 11 games.
This game is on the road, but it is indoors against a defense that has had issues holding up against the pass and has picked up a handful of injuries as the season has progressed.
The Lions have allowed the QB1 and the QB2 in overall scoring these past two weeks to Jameis Winston (32.2 points) and Jordan Love (25.8 points).
Detroit has given up huge gains these past two weeks, allowing a league-high 17.1 yards per completion to Winston and Love.
Going back to Week 5, they have allowed 15.8 passing points per game, 27th in the league.
That includes good fantasy weeks to the likes of Jake Browning (19.1 points), J.J. McCarthy (18.9 points), and Marcus Mariota (18.7 points) over that span.
The Lions have allowed a 6.9% touchdown rate over their past eight games, 31st in the league.
The Lions are playing man coverage on a league-high 40.8% of passing plays.
Prescott has not seen a ton of man coverage (25.9%), but he is ninth in completion rate (59.8%) and sixth in yards per pass attempt (8.0 Y/A) against man looks.
Jared Goff: Goff played well on Thanksgiving, closing Week 13 as the QB7 (20.6 points).
That was more impressive under the hood, given that Detroit struggled to run the ball, was without Sam LaPorta, and lost Amon-Ra St. Brown after 4 snaps.
Goff was also facing a defense that had given him fits the past two seasons, but he managed to connect on 20 of 26 passes for 9.8 yards per pass attempt with 2 touchdowns.
He also had a 24-yard run, the second-longest of his career (26 yards in 2021, also against Green Bay).
There is still some volatility here since we expect Detroit to be down St. Brown for at least one week, but Goff’s performance last week provides some added confidence in going back to him as a fringe QB1 in a good matchup with so much in motion.
The one concern here is that Goff needed to be hyper-efficient given the play calling last week.
Dan Campbell did not give Goff much wiggle room.
Detroit threw the ball 23% below expectations, which was a season low.
They threw the ball 22% below expectations on first downs.
I am sure the impact of losing St. Brown played a role in that approach, but Detroit also overplayed an ineffective run game.
We do not want to be forced into that type of game again, even in a better matchup.
As we are gauging more of a sample of this upgraded Dallas defense, which has played better in spurts in recent weeks, they still appear vulnerable to the pass when it comes to fantasy production.
The Cowboys are still allowing the most passing points in the league at 19.6 per game.
They allowed 26.4 passing points to Patrick Mahomes on Thanksgiving a week after Jalen Hurts threw for 289 yards and scored 15.6 passing points on his way to 30.9 points in total.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs was quiet on Thanksgiving, turning 23 touches into 86 yards against the Packers.
We have been riding a roller coaster with Gibbs on the ground.
Over his past six games, Gibbs has rushed for 8.0, 2.8, 9.5, 3.2, 14.6, and 3.4 yards per carry.
He has rushed for 68 or fewer yards in seven of 12 games.
He has been an RB3 or lower in three of his past seven games, but also a top-three scorer in three of those.
Gibbs was making up for his instability rushing with a spike in receiving work since Campbell took over play calling, but he only managed 3 receptions for 18 yards against Green Bay.
With St. Brown going down so early, that was a bit surprising, but Jameson Williams also had the hot hand.
We have been up and down with Gibbs this season, but he has shown us that his ceiling is still more than worth the squeeze.
Gamers are still handling him as a high-upside RB1.
Gibbs still handled 69.7% of the backfield touches last week.
Three of his four highest backfield shares this season have come since Campbell took over play calling.
Gibbs has 18, 17, 26, and 23 touches in those games.
Dallas has been sturdy up front since acquiring Quinnen Williams.
Over the past three weeks, they have allowed 3.3 YPC to running backs (third fewest), allowing 117 rushing yards on 36 attempts without a touchdown.
They have allowed 0.33 yards before contact on those runs, fourth in the league.
They have not been overly challenged by front-end running teams over that span, but Detroit has been an inconsistent running team itself.
Detroit ranks 27th in rushing success rate (38.1%).
Gibbs himself has a 40.6% success rate, which ranks 19th among 37 running backs with 100-plus runs.
This would be an ideal spot to get Gibbs back on track as a pass catcher.
Dallas is 30th in receiving points allowed (11.1 per game) to running backs.
Javonte Williams: Williams produced 80 yards and a touchdown on 20 touches Thursday.
He rushed 17 times for 59 yards (3.5 YPC) but caught 3 passes for 21 yards and his first receiving touchdown of the season to elevate his fantasy line.
Williams is averaging 79.7 total yards per game over his past seven games after 105.0 yards per game over the opening five weeks.
Malik Davis had a 43-yard touchdown run, but Williams dominated the backfield again.
Williams handled 86.9% of the backfield touches and 85% of the backfield runs.
That workload has kept Williams in play as a volume-based RB2 who can spike when he gets into the end zone.
We will likely need a score here.
Detroit is allowing 4.0 YPC to backs (11th), allowing a first down or touchdown on 19.8% of those runs (8th).
As a byproduct, Detroit is allowing 10.6 rushing points per game to backs, fifth in the league.
They are also only allowing 6.2 receiving points per game to backs, second in the league.
David Montgomery: Montgomery got into the end zone on Thanksgiving, but his opportunities were once again limited.
He only had 10 touches for 48 yards.
Montgomery has now gone over 50 total yards once over his past six games.
Since Campbell took over play calling, Montgomery has 45.7%, 29.2%, 23.5%, and 30.3% of the backfield touches.
He is a touchdown-dependent FLEX.
If you are betting on Montgomery beyond that, you are betting on Detroit holding control of the game.
Montgomery has only played 34.5% of the offensive snaps while tied or trailing.
Wide Receiver
More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |