Colts vs. Falcons Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Colts and Falcons in Berlin.

Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Daniel Jones: Sunday was the worst outing for Jones this season.

He did throw for a season-high 342 yards while adding his fifth rushing touchdown of the year, but volume covered up a season-low 6.8 yards per pass attempt.

Negative plays were his undoing for fantasy.

Jones was sacked a season-high 5 times, 3 of which resulted in fumbles, losing 2.

He threw 3 interceptions after throwing 3 all season prior.

One was a superb tipped pass at the line of scrimmage that you can chalk up as a great defensive play, but the other 4 turnovers were not flattering.

Jones lost 1.0 EPA or worse on a season-high 21.8% of his dropbacks.

He had an 11% rate coming into Week 9.

Pittsburgh forced Jones to hold the ball.

He only threw 38.2% of his passes within 2.5 seconds, his lowest rate of the season.

Coming into last week, Jones had a 47.9% rate of throws coming out within 2.5 seconds.

I don’t believe we need to throw out all of the good Jones has done this season after one negative week on the road.

I prefer to use Jones as a high-floor QB2 here, but I would not go out of my way to stream for him if you have leaned on him as a 1QB starter.

The body of work this season is still strong, but this matchup has not led to many spike weeks for passers.

Atlanta is allowing 12.0 passing points per game, sixth in the league.

They have only allowed one top-10 week this season, holding Josh Allen (15.4 points) and Drake Maye (16.4 points) below their seasonal averages.

While Atlanta has not allowed many spike weeks, it has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of its past five games, including a 4-touchdown game by Tua Tagovailoa.

The Falcons are 16th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.452), but they have faced the fewest pass attempts per game (26.5) to cover some of that up.

The Colts have been an aggressive team that throws to get ahead and then runs to win, so it will be interesting to see if they waver after Sunday’s showing.

Indianapolis is fifth in the league in neutral pass rate (65%).

The Falcons lead the NFL in the rate of Cover 3 (58.3%).

The Colts do not see much Cover 3, so it will be interesting to see how Atlanta adjusts here.

They have used Cover 3 on over 50% of their snaps against every team except for Minnesota (26.1%), when they dialed up more man coverage and blitzes against J.J. McCarthy.

Jones has only faced Cover 3 on 25.6% of his dropbacks (26th) but is second in the NFL with 10.5 yards per attempt against those looks.

Even on Sunday, he was 9 of 13 for 114 yards (8.8 Y/A) when Pittsburgh went to those looks.

Michael Penix: Penix only completed 59.5% of his passes for 6.0 yards per attempt on Sunday in New England, but he ran hot with 3 passing touchdowns while tacking on 19 rushing yards to get to a QB11 scoring week (22.7 points).

That was the most fantasy points Penix has scored since the season opener, and his second QB1 scoring week of the season.

He has completed 60.8% of his passes (29th) for 7.0 yards per pass attempt (20th).

Downfield throws have been an issue for Penix.

He has completed 24.1% (7 of 29) of his throws 20 or more yards downfield, ahead of only Mac Jones (15%) and Dillon Gabriel (12.5%).

Penix is still a QB2 here, but could be forced into volume if the Colts are back on track and playing from ahead.

The Colts allow only 6.8 yards per pass attempt (12th), but they face 38.7 pass attempts per game (second most) and have allowed 15.2 passing points per game (21st) as a result.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor was bottled up and held in check on Sunday, turning 16 touches into a season-low 57 yards.

Taylor rushed for a season-low 3.2 yards per carry with a long run of 9 yards.

The media griped about Taylor’s lack of early-game involvement, but this is how the Colts have been all season.

Indianapolis is second in the NFL in dropback rate in the first quarter (65.8%) and seventh in first-half dropback rate (65.2%).

They pass to get ahead and use Taylor to smother teams.

Taylor averages 7.1 YPC in the second half of games this season, with 8 of his 12 rushing touchdowns.

Taylor had only 23 yards on 8 touches in the first half, so it wasn't as if Indy was neglecting efficiency; the Colts just never got ahead.

Taylor was always going to slow down and have some mortal weeks, but he remains a fantasy RB1.

This would be a matchup for the Colts to lean into a more run-first mentality.

Running backs have scored 41.5% of the fantasy points against the Falcons this season, the highest share in the league.

Atlanta has a 53.2% success rate against running back runs (30th).

They are 20th in yards allowed before contact on those runs (1.43).

Bijan Robinson: Robinson was once again limited on the ground on Sunday against New England, rushing 12 times for 46 yards.

Over his past three games, Robinson has rushed 35 times for 111 yards (3.2 YPC).

Despite finding little room to run, Robinson made an impact through the air, catching 8 of 10 targets for 50 yards, including a pair of one-handed snags.

Robinson is third among all running backs with 19.9% of the Atlanta targets, while his 2.16 yards per route lead the position.

Robinson also played a season-high 96.4% of the offensive snaps, which allowed him to accrue a season-high 90.9% of the backfield touches.

Atlanta faced a strong run defense and was chasing points on the road, but it was around this time a year ago that Robinson went from a timeshare back to dominating touches over the back half of the season.

Last week could have been circumstantial, but it will be something to watch here, since it was the same coaching staff that increased his workload as the season went on last year.

Robinson has the receiving ability backbone to create high floor as an RB1, even if the rushing efficiency is still lacking.

The Colts have allowed 3.9 YPC to running backs (9th), but they are in the middle of the league in allowing 0.85 points per touch to backs (17th).

Wide Receiver

Drake London: London was incredible on Sunday, collecting 9 of 14 targets for 118 yards and 3 touchdowns.

It wasn’t just the counting stats in the box score, but London arguably had the best catalog of receptions in a game this season on Sunday.

London is now the WR6 in yards per route run (2.39), WR6 in target share (29.5%), and has been targeted on 31.3% of his routes, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (37.3%) and Puka Nacua (36.1%).

London now has double-digit targets in four straight games, the past two coming in games with Darnell Mooney on the field.

After receiving 19% and 19.5% of the team’s targets in his first two games with Mooney active in full, London has seen 27.8% and 41.2% of the targets in his past two games played with Mooney.

The Patriots did not use Christian Gonzalez to shadow London, and Gonzalez instead wiped out Mooney whenever they lined up.

London lined up against Gonzalez 16 times on Sunday, catching 2 of 6 targets for 51 yards.

All 3 touchdowns came against the other corners.

Were the early-season splits with Mooney always a false lead and strictly a small sample issue?

We saw London have a 4-42-0 game in Week 7, but any variance moving forward could have more to do with quarterback play than Mooney being an actual threat.

Mooney has been pretty rough this season (0.95 yards per route) and has only earned a target on 14.8% of his routes.

He has played through a few injuries, but London has significantly outplayed him this season.

We will let that sample breathe while we have another test on the table for London as a fringe WR1.

The Colts just held DK Metcalf to 2 catches for 6 yards.

Jaylon Jones returned to the field for the first time since Week 1, and the team just traded for Sauce Gardner.

Gardner, Jones, and Kenny Moore have the Colts in a far better place than they were over the first half of the year.

The Jets allowed the third-fewest points per game to WR1s this season with Gardner.

Gardner has allowed a reception once every 20.9 snaps this season, the lowest rate among cornerbacks.

We will see how quickly he gets acclimated and how Lou Anarumo uses him, but this is a significant addition with an immediate impact.

Despite all of their injuries and moving parts in the secondary, the Colts were allowing 1.67 points per target to wide receivers (12th), but they face 21.7 targets per game to the position (second-most) because they have played from ahead so often.

How the game script goes here could serve as the guiding principle for London’s output.

London plays inside and outside, playing 33.8% of his snaps in the slot.

That has been the area where the Colts have been the most vulnerable to receivers.

Gardner has not traveled inside often during his early career.

44.1% of the receptions the Colts have allowed to receivers have come from the slot (third highest).

Michael Pittman: Pittman grabbed 9 of 12 targets for 115 yards on Sunday.

This was his third game in a row catching at least 7 passes.

The game script helped Pittman run a season-high 52 routes, but he still accounted for 25% of the targets, his third game in a row at 25% or higher.

Pittman has finished as a WR2 or better in 7 of 9 games this season.

Locked in as a fantasy WR2, Atlanta has faced only 6.3 targets per game to WR1 options (second fewest), but they allow 9.1 yards per target (23rd) and a 6% touchdown rate (20th) to those receivers.

If the Falcons do not alter their approach and play the Colts similarly to other opponents, Pittman has only averaged 1.25 yards per route against Cover 3.

Alec Pierce: Pierce stayed productive on Sunday, catching 6 of 13 targets for a season-high 115 yards.

Pierce is still without a touchdown this season, but he has finished as a WR4 or better in six straight games, including three weeks as a WR3 or better.

He has had a higher floor this season due to an increased role.

Pierce has been targeted on a career-high 20.2% of his routes.

He has 48.4% of the air yards in his games played, which is second in the league.

Pierce is still a viable upside WR4/FLEX here, but this matchup does present a challenge for his downfield targets.

For starters, Atlanta is third in receiving yards allowed per game to receivers (123.4).

Pierce has been targeted on 27.8% of his routes against man coverage compared to 19.1% against zone.

Atlanta is ninth in the rate of zone coverage this season (76.1%).

On the positive end of things, if we do see all of that Cover 3 remain static here and Atlanta doesn’t adjust to how teams have played the Colts, then Pierce is averaging 3.96 yards per route against those coverages this season.

The Falcons also play a defense focused on preventing big plays downfield.

They have allowed a 30.4% catch rate to wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards downfield (sixth in the league), allowing only 7 receptions to receivers on those throws (tied for third).

Josh Downs: Downs caught 6 of 9 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, his third consecutive game with a touchdown.

The Colts have incorporated Downs near the end zone lately, using his prestige route-running to leverage mismatches.

That has given Downs some added juice as a WR4/FLEX option.

We will need that to remain static here.

Downs has been targeted on 24.5% of his routes (WR19) but has still only been on the field for 65.3% of the dropbacks in his games played, since he does not play in one or two WR sets.

Playing 75% of his snaps for the slot, the Falcons have allowed 8.1 yards per target to slot receivers (23rd), but have not allowed a touchdown from the slot yet this season.

Darnell Mooney: Mooney caught one pass for 15 yards on Sunday.

Only 2 targets came his way.

Mooney has one top-40 scoring week on the season and has been held to 20 or fewer yards in three of his five complete games this season.

He has been targeted on 14.8% of his routes, which is fourth on the team behind London, Robinson, and Kyle Pitts.

His 0.95 yards per route run rank WR90 among receivers with 100-plus routes this season.

Mooney has been banged up as a potential hall pass.

If you're still rolling him out as a WR5/FLEX, the playing time is still here.

He was on the field for 100% of the dropbacks on Sunday.

If Atlanta is playing from behind and chasing points, the Colts face the second-most targets per game (21.7) to wide receivers.

Tight End

Tyler Warren: Warren caught 5 of 7 targets for a season-low 26 yards on Sunday.

Although he did have 7 targets due to the high number of team dropbacks, Warren’s 14.6% target share on Sunday was his lowest rate in a game this season.

The Colts played their first game of the season in complete comeback mode, forced to ditch their base offense in a game that called for a traditional dropback attack.

That may have played a role, since so much of Warren’s game stems from the run game, with the crux of his targets coming via play action and the RPO game.

Warren leads the position with 310 yards on play action this season, which makes up nearly 60% of his receiving yardage.

43.9% of his targets are off play action.

On those play-action plays, he is averaging 4.43 yards per route, which leads the position.

But on non-play-action passes, Warren only averages 1.04 yards per route (TE27).

The Colts ran play action on just 20% of their passing plays on Sunday, well short of their 32.1% rate on the year.

In the second half, they only had a 10% play-action rate while chasing points.

That was the first time Indianapolis was put in that spot, but it's something to keep an eye on when they are forced to abandon their game plan.

Pittsburgh also moved Jalen Ramsey out of slot cornerback on Sunday, playing him a season-high 55 snaps at safety and a season-high 15 snaps in the box.

Ramsey was near Warren nearly every snap on Sunday.

Warren is a TE1 you are riding out the highs with the lows with, and he is good enough to overcome any tough matchup.

Warren has another potentially tough draw this week.

The Falcons have allowed a league-low 58.6% catch rate to tight ends and allow the fewest receptions per game to the position (2.1).

They have allowed a 3.5% touchdown rate (third) and 6.1 yards per target (8th) to the position.

Warren has faced Denver (4-79-0) and the Rams (5-70-0), two defenses that have been stingy against tight ends.

Kyle Pitts: Pitts secured 4 of 7 targets for 38 yards on Sunday.

Pitts has now seen at least 7 targets in three straight games.

He has been on the field for 91.8% of the dropbacks (TE2) and has 20.7% of the Atlanta targets (TE2).

That volume has propped him up as best as possible, as Pitts is averaging a career-low 8.9 yards per catch (TE30).

Pitts still has trouble creating any of his own yardage.

His 3.7 yards after the catch are TE35.

He also only has one end zone target.

All of that combined has kept him as a floor-based TE1, elevated in full-PPR and TE-Premium formats.

The Colts do offer some matchup appeal here for Pitts.

Indianapolis is allowing 8.3 yards per target to tight ends (25th) and has allowed 5 touchdowns to the position.

Tight ends are averaging 6.7 receptions per game against the Colts, 28th in the league.

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