The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Dolphins and Bills.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Miami | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.5 | Spread | 9.5 | ||
| 29.75 | Implied Total | 20.25 | ||
| 29.4 | 3 | Points/Gm | 20.0 | 26 |
| 20.9 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 27.0 | 24 |
| 62.8 | 14 | Plays/Gm | 56.2 | 30 |
| 57.4 | 6 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 58.4 | 10 |
| 6.1 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 20 |
| 5.4 | 19 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.9 | 28 |
| 51.00% | 1 | Rush% | 38.93% | 28 |
| 49.00% | 32 | Pass% | 61.07% | 5 |
| 45.97% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 49.81% | 31 |
| 54.03% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 50.19% | 2 |
- The Dolphins are 1-7 against Buffalo under Mike McDaniel.
- Josh Allen has a 14-2 record against Miami.
- Miami is 0-7 in games they have trailed at any point this season, the worst mark in the league.
- Buffalo has allowed a league-low 1.30 points per drive on the road.
- Buffalo has allowed 10 points off turnovers this season, tied for the fewest in the league.
- Miami has allowed 61 points off turnovers this season, tied for the most in the league.
- Buffalo leads the league in time of possession per game (33:25) and time of possession margin (+6:51).
- 6.5% of Miami's passing plays gain 20 or more yards, 29th in the league.
- The Bills are at 11%, fifth in the league.
- The Bills are third in the league in pass defense EPA (13.4) and fifth in passing offense EPA (+72.6).
- Buffalo is third in the league in rushing EPA on offense (+5.6) and 29th in rushing EPA on defense (-11.8).
- Miami is second in the NFL in EPA as a run defense over their past three games (+19.4) after ranking 31st over their opening five games (-8.3).
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen (TRUST): Allen was nearly flawless on Sunday against the Chiefs, completing 23 of 26 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown.
He set season highs in completion percentage (88.5%) and yards per pass attempt (10.5).
He did not run a ton on Sunday (6 times for 19 yards) but added 2 rushing touchdowns to produce his highest scoring game since Week 1.
41.7% of Allen’s passes have resulted in a first down or touchdown, third in the league behind Lamar Jackson (42.4%) and Drake Maye (42%).
This is a matchup Allen has devoured over his career.
He has owned the Dolphins.
Allen has played nearly a full season in this one-sided rivalry.
In 16 career games against Miami, Allen has thrown 43 touchdowns, completing 66.4% of his passes for 4,302 yards.
He has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in 15 of those games.
As a rusher, he had 692 yards (43.3 yards per game) and 5 touchdowns.
Allen averages 26.5 fantasy points per game against Miami.
That sample includes the Week 3 matchup between these teams.
In that matchup, Allen was the QB5 (23 points).
He completed 78.6% of his passes (22 of 28) with 3 touchdowns.
Miami ranks 28th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.542) and 29th in rushing points allowed per game to quarterbacks (4.8).
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua has finished in the front half of weekly scoring just twice this season.
In three of the past four weeks, he has been the QB25 or lower in weekly scoring.
Tagovailoa is averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
That is 24th in the league, and his lowest yards per attempt since his rookie season.
He also has a career-high 4.1% interception rate, while his 6.2% sack rate is the highest since his rookie year.
Tagovailoa is a QB2 here.
He was the QB19 (12.8 points) when these teams met in Week 3, completing 22 of 34 passes for 146 yards (4.3 Y/A), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
The Bills are giving up 10.6 passing points per game (4th), allowing a 61.7% completion rate (5th), 6.8 Y/A (11th), and a 3.2% touchdown rate (5th).
Running Back
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More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Raiders @ Broncos | Thursday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Colts | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Giants @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Chargers | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Packers | Monday Night Football |
