The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Texans and Jaguars.
Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Jacksonville | Rank | @ | Houston | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Spread | -1.0 | ||
| 18.5 | Implied Total | 19.5 | ||
| 22.0 | 21 | Points/Gm | 21.0 | 24 |
| 23.0 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 15.1 | 1 |
| 66.9 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 9 |
| 60.9 | 13 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.6 | 4 |
| 5.1 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.0 | 25 |
| 5.5 | 22 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 4 |
| 41.31% | 23 | Rush% | 42.04% | 19 |
| 58.69% | 10 | Pass% | 57.96% | 14 |
| 37.17% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 40.18% | 11 |
| 62.83% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 59.82% | 22 |
- All four Houston home games have gone under the game total, averaging 34.8 combined points.
- Texans games average a combined 588.5 yards per game, second-lowest in the league. The league average is 658.7.
- Opponents have scored 41.5 points below their implied totals against Houston this season, the worst differential in the league.
- The Jaguars are 28th in pass defense EPA over their past four games (-38.2) after ranking 3rd in the opening four games (+15.9).
- Jacksonville is 30th in turnover rate per drive over that span (4.7%) after leading the NFL with a 28.9% takeaway rate prior.
- Jacksonville has a league-low 2.1% sack rate since Week 5.
- Houston is 0-5 in games they have trailed at any point this season.
- Houston has converted a league-low 36.4% (8 of 22) of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, going 2 for 11 over its past three games.
- The Texans have a league-worst 26.9% success rate on rushing plays by running backs this season. The league average is 39.6%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence had a nondescript day as a passer on Sunday, throwing for 220 yards and 6.5 yards per pass attempt without a touchdown.
But he rushed for a pair of touchdowns to bolster his fantasy line.
That was the second time over the past four games he has rushed for multiple scores.
This is a tough draw for Lawrence from a passing stance.
He has thrown for 7.0 yards per attempt in a game just once this season.
Lawrence has had a league-high 8.2% of his passes dropped this season.
He also has an 11.9% inaccurate throw rate (27th), which compounds matters.
Putting those together, Lawrence has completed 5.9% of his passes below expectations, ahead of only Caleb Williams (-6.5%).
This is not a matchup to chase passing upside, leaving Lawrence as a back-end QB2.
Houston is allowing the fewest passing points per attempt (0.324), allowing a 56.9% completion rate (2nd), 6.1 yards per pass attempt (2nd), and a 3.2% touchdown rate (6th).
Houston is also fifth in rushing points allowed to quarterbacks (1.5).
When these teams played in Week 3, Lawrence was the QB28 (7.8 points), completing 20 of 40 passes for 222 yards (5.5 Y/A) with no touchdowns and an interception.
Davis Mills: We are entering the week anticipating that Mills will start on Sunday with C.J. Stroud in concussion protocol.
Mills completed 17 of 30 passes (56.7%) for 137 yards (4.6 Y/A) without a touchdown or interception after entering last week’s game against the Broncos.
Mills has not started a game since 2022, when he led the league in interceptions (15).
While he is more of an option for 2QB formats needing a fill-in, given this is one of the lowest totals of the week, Mills is at least experienced and has a favorable home matchup.
This Jacksonville defense has not played well since the opening of the season.
The Jaguars have allowed a top-10 fantasy quarterback in four straight games.
Getting roughed up by Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, and Matthew Stafford is nothing to be ashamed of, but allowing 4 touchdowns to 2025 Geno Smith raises some eyebrows.
Running Back
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More Week 10 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Raiders @ Broncos | Thursday Night Football |
| Falcons @ Colts | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Giants @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Commanders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Chargers | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Packers | Monday Night Football |
