Week 11 saw a few new names at the top of the scoring table along with a mainstay. With the fantasy playoffs right around the corner, identifying where and when these top-scoring games can happen could make a huge impact on the remaining length of your fantasy season.
The top overall scorer this week was Bills WR John Brown, who scored 34.7 fantasy points with a receiving line of 9/137/2 on 14 targets. This was a career-high in points, his first time exceeding 30, his second time scoring two TDs, and only his third time with over seven receptions. Previously, he was seen as a boom or bust deep threat, but this year he has been surprisingly consistent as the only receiver other than Michael Thomas to gain at least 50 yards in every game.
It seems that his change in consistency is due to being featured more in the short and intermediate game, lowering his Air Yards Per Reception from 16.3 last year to 14 this year, and also his YAC from 3.8 to 2.9. His 27% target share is also way up from last year's 18%.
This has caused a leveling off in his Yards Per Target in addition to his weekly fantasy scores, though his ceiling potential remains. Brown ranks 15th in points per game but is up at second in Air Yards, a gap which has narrowed after this Sunday’s results. He received 45% of his team's targets, way up from his average of 27%, and he took advantage by doubling up his season total TDs with two more. This did come against the lowly Dolphins in a game the Bills won by 17, but it is good to know they are willing to run up the score when the opportunity presents itself.
For the second time this season, the top two spots are connected with a QB-WR combo from the same team, meaning Josh Allen lands in second place. His score was 33.8, going 256/3/0 completing 21 of 33 attempts and running for 7/56/1.
In only his second year, he has been one of the most inconsistent and inaccurate real-life QBs. Yet, he’s been a valuable fantasy QB in every week but one, thanks to the production he adds via rushing. He ranks 37th in QBR and 42nd in converting Air Yards Thrown into Air Yards Completed, meaning there are 5-10 QBs who are injured or on the bench with better numbers.
He’s third in rushing yards among QBs with his bye already behind him, helping him post over 19 PPG in all but one game which came against New England’s vaunted defense, while averaging 22.6. His best two weeks of this year have been his two most recent, both exceeding 28 and proving that his upside is not behind him.
Appearing in 3rd in back-to-back weeks is Lamar Jackson, who upped his game with an additional tenth of a point. He scored 33.5 by throwing 222/4/0 on 17/24 attempts and added 9/86 rushing. He is averaging 29.4 PPG, right under Patrick Mahomes's record-setting pace from last year of 29.5 PPG, and is a real threat to best it as he continues to make his claim for MVP. This year, he has wins against MVP candidate, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and now Deshaun Watson. All three games were dominated by the Ravens. In addition to being first overall in points and rushing production among QBs, Jackson is fifth in QBR and fourth in pass TDs. He has shown remarkable improvement from his rookie year where he ranked 32nd and 36th in those same categories
After scoring the seventh most points in Weeks 1 and 2, Dak Prescott is consistently putting up QB1 performances (80%) and 20+ fantasy points (90%) for fantasy owners. Prescott had a gunslinger performance of 444/3/0 completing 29/46 attempts and adding 18 yards rushing on six attempts.
Dak has completed the most Air Yards (1,962) with the second most attempted (3,622). He has the most passing yards in the league and the second-most passing TDs while sitting at third in QB fantasy points. He’s also sitting 4th in Fantasy Points Over Expectation among QBs, partly due to some soft matchups to start the season.
As long as stud WR, Amari Cooper can stay healthy, and to a lesser extent WR2, Michael Gallup, Prescott has the potential to go off in any given week. Even WR3, Randall Cobb, has produced with back-to-back 20+ point games because Prescott has no problem with spreading the ball around to the open man. If Cowboys OC Kellen Moore continues to go pass-heavy, Dak’s production is likely to continue.
Narrowly edging out Christian McCaffery for fifth this week was Jaguars alpha WR, D.J. Chark with 30.4 points. He ended up with 8/104/2 on a career-high 15 targets, thanks to playing from behind for the entire game against the Colts. I was interested to see how QB Nick Foles's return from injury might impact Chark’s awesome opportunity and production. It is only a one-week sample, but so far I see no reason for concern. This was an ideal game-script for a WR to produce, and his catch rate leaves room for improvement, but the continued upward trend of his targets has me very bullish on the future of Chark in this offense, regardless of the QB.
He leads all WRs in TDs this season, averaging 0.8 per game. While one could make the argument he is outperforming his opportunity, but it isn’t by much; He ranks 14th in targets, seventh in Air Yards and 10th in actual yards receiving. He's weekly production will give you no choice but to sing DJ-Chark-do-do-dodododo.