NFL Red Zone Stats vs. Expectation: Running Backs

As we continue to lay the foundation for the fantasy football landscape for 2024 we are following up our look at league and team performance in the red zone last season, and spilling that over into individual player analysis.

In that top-down team post, we covered that the crux of touchdowns scored in the NFL come from inside of the red zone and that not all red zone touches are created equal.

Just to reiterate some notes from that article that relate to rushing production near the end zone, since 2010:

• 86.3% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the red zone. In 2023, that rate was 89.4%.
• 73.7% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 10-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 75.1%.
• 57.1% of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the five-yard line. In 2023, that rate was 59.6%.
• 43.3% of all rushing touchdowns come from the 1-2 yard lines. In 2023, that rate was 44.7%.

It is harder to run the ball in for a touchdown from long distances.

The numbers above also further illuminate why the decline in rushing opportunities for running backs closer to the end zone has had a significant impact on fantasy within the position.

We inherently know that a rushing attempt from the one-yard line is far more valuable than a carry from the 19-yard line, but they are often lumped together in analysis.

A carry from the one-yard line is worth six times as much for fantasy production compared to an attempt from the 19.

With that, the next step is then diving into the red zone production versus an expectation for fantasy skill players based on their actual opportunities and weighing in where those opportunities came from inside of the red zone.

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2023 RB Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation

Kicking things off, the top two running backs in points scored over expectations in the red zone both played for the same team.

Both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane ran as pure as possible on their opportunities last season.

Pairing this with yesterday’s notes, this is how Tua Tagovailoa ended up underachieving to the worst degree among NFL passers inside of the red zone last season.

Mostert was second in the NFL in red zone fantasy points scored last season, trailing only Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey was first in expected points and overall opportunity in the red zone while Mostert was fifth.

At age 31, Mostert had a career-high 21 touchdowns.

The only running backs to ever score more touchdowns in a season at age 30 or older were Priest Holmes in 2003 (27 touchdowns at age 30) and John Riggins (24 scores at age 34) in 1983.

Mostert scored 18 times on the ground, which was 6.5 over expectations.

47.1% of his fantasy points were scored directly via touchdowns.

Not only was that the highest share for a running back in 2023, but it was also the highest rate of touchdown dependency any fantasy RB1 has had over the past 30 years.

That surpassed 2016 LeGarrette Blount, who went from 14.6 points per game that season down to 6.7 in the next.

Mostert should not be expected to have that type of decline since Blount changed teams, but it is hard to bet on replicating the scoring output that he had last season while his overall usage is a question mark with Achane and Jaylen Wright in place to take on touches in the offense.

Achane was 10th on the list above in red zone fantasy points scored despite ranking 31st in expected points scored.

Achane only had 12 total touches inside of the 10-yard line, but he scored a touchdown on six of them. That 46.2% touchdown rate on touches inside of the 10-yard line was only behind Kareem Hunt and Saquon Barkley (53.3% each).

Achane only had six opportunities (targets and runs) inside of the five-yard line. Five of them resulted in touchdowns.

While we certainly should anticipate regression for the Miami backfield as a whole, what makes it harder is that we do not have a large sample to work off of with these players working together, let alone factor in how Jaylen Wright factors into things.

The Miami backfield was rarely healthy last season.

After the Denver explosion game, Achane and Mostert only played two games the rest of the season in which both were on the field for half of the team plays.

They only had five games after the Denver game in which both players made it completely through the game.

In that five-game sample, Mostert out-touched Achane 73-to-63 overall and 11-to-3 inside of the 5-yard line.

I am still wagering that Mostert is the lead option near the end zone, but this is a volatile combination dependent on touchdowns even if we trust the ability of Mike McDaniel to produce a top-down rushing game that operates on hyper-efficiency.

Christian McCaffrey was third among all players in red zone fantasy points in his first full season with Kyle Shanahan.

Only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts scored more points than CMC.

In terms of expected points, only Dak Prescott and Allen were higher.

McCaffrey led the league with 79 opportunities in the red zone.

He set career-highs with 63 red zone rushes and 16 red zone targets.

McCaffrey has now played 33 games with the 49ers, scoring 39 rushing and receiving touchdowns in those games.

He has played in just six games with the 49ers in which he has not scored a touchdown.

Even if McCaffrey does regress in efficiency or has a reduced touch count inside of the red zone, his expected point total should remain among the best in the league.

We can question if that is the case for Gus Edwards heading into a new environment in Los Angeles.

Edwards was fifth in points scored inside of the red zone last season while sitting ninth in expected points.

Edwards scored 42.7 fantasy points from the one-yard line alone, which trailed only Jalen Hurts.

Those rushes from exactly one yard away accounted for 48.5% of Edwards’ total red zone points.

He converted all seven of his carries from the one-yard line for touchdowns.

No other running back with more than three runs from the one-yard line converted all of them for touchdowns while running backs in total converted 52.5% of those rushes for scores.

Before last season, Edwards had converted 5-of-8 career rushes from the one-yard for touchdowns.

Overall, Edwards converted 12-of-19 rushes (63.2%) inside of the five-yard line for touchdowns last season after converting 5-of-17 (29.4%) for his career entering the season.

The involvement that Edwards had inside of the five-yard line paired with the continued success that Derrick Henry once again had near the end zone is why gamers are still forced to leave the lights on for Henry even though he is past the age cliff at the position.

Derrick Henry Red Zone Points vs Expectations:

Henry was sixth in points scored over expectations in the red zone among running backs in 2023, a place in which he has routinely overachieved.

The scary part is that Henry has been that good at overproducing his expected red zone output despite not threatening the top of the expected points leaderboard.

Baltimore could provide that opportunity.

Edwards handled 19 opportunities inside of the five-yard line compared to 12 for Henry last season despite Henry having a monopoly on his backfield touches while he also did not play with a running quarterback.

The Ravens had 74 red zone possessions in 2023 (fifth) while the Titans had 48 (23rd), and Henry still found his way to double-digit touchdowns.

The difference between the Ravens and a team like the Eagles is that their mobile quarterback did not bogart all of the scoring opportunities.

Baltimore running backs accounted for 20 total rushing touchdowns in 2023, with Edwards leaving 13 scores behind in his final season with the Ravens.

Ravens running backs had 40 rushing attempts in goal-to-goal situations last year (fourth in the league).

Inside of the five-yard line, Baltimore backs were third in the NFL with 25 rushes.

The Ravens backfield carried 8-of-10 rushing attempts from the one-yard line.

I have not drafted a lot of Henry at cost because of the way I typically structure my rosters and playing in many full-PPR formats, but I do believe that if he can stay healthy the entire way in 2024, Henry should be able to push 15-plus touchdowns on the ground given his career output in a far worse offense paired with the scoring opportunities that Baltimore has provided.

Kyren Williams had a massive breakout last season, aided by running hot in the red zone.

Not only did Williams hot on his opportunities, but the Rams are a team we are anticipating to have an increased share of passing touchdowns this season while Matthew Stafford showed up as someone we are looking to bounce back yesterday.

That said, we have to account for the fact that while Williams did run his purest on his scoring chances, he was still fourth in expected points scored at the position.

That was in only 12 games played.

Only McCaffrey and Mostert scored more red zone fantasy points than Williams did last season despite all of that missed time.

Williams potentially holding onto that red zone role even with the addition of Blake Corum is one of the reasons I am still hanging in on him when he hits the third round and I have opened up with WR- WR plays.

I also do want to take a moment to reiterate something I have regularly brought up in other posts over the past few weeks when dissecting leaguewide and team-by-team production.

I do not believe there is a coincidence here that among the top backs performing expectations, they are attached to this Shanahan/McVay coaching tree that is operating the best into the current defensive meta since they can be so multiple while also playing under center.

The hardest thing that the zone-based, shell coverage rise has had is with these offenses that can run and pass while remaining under center.

I also do want to hit on the upside for Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall now that they are playing in offenses that we are expecting to score more points this season.

Both backs outproduced their expectations near the end zone, but their teams did not create a lot of opportunities overall.

Robinson was only 26th in expected red zone points as a rookie.

Hall was the RB2 in full-PPR scoring last season despite ranking 37th in expected red zone points.

One other interesting note here is that Isiah Pacheco was sixth in expected points and now has a wider runway to lead the Kansas City backfield in 2024.

Underachievers

If you are familiar with the GTA San Andreas meme, that is essentially Joe Mixon.

Mixon was second to only McCaffrey in expected points in the red zone among running backs.

He did finish fourth in actual points scored in that department but was 48th on the table above in points scored compared to expectations.

That is now the fourth time over the past six seasons that Mixon has underachieved near the end zone.

Joe Mixon Red Zone Points vs Expectations:

Mixon had a league-high 10 rushing attempts for running backs from the one-yard line.

He converted two of those for touchdowns.

If looking for a ray of sunshine, Mixon did convert 60% of those runs in 2022, but since 2018, Mixon has now converted 48.6% (18-of-37) of those runs for touchdowns while the base rate for running backs over that span is 56.5%.

I have been selecting Mixon at his draft cost on WR-WR-WR starts since his touches have been bankable and I am expecting Houston to provide another opportunity for a high volume of expected points, but we should not expect Mixon to completely show up as a new player with the Texans.

Outside of those team builds I have not explored aggressively adding him. If his draft cost rises, there will be added caution.

As someone who fully experienced the pain of Tony Pollard in 2023, I am not shocked to see him second to last in points scored below expectations in the red zone last season.

Pollard was third among running backs in expected red zone points but was 13th in actual points scored in that area of the field.

Pollard is a cautionary tale on players being impacted by a significant offseason injury as well as extrapolating efficiency on a limited sample and role before getting a full workload.

He converted 23.1% (3-of-13) opportunities inside of the five-yard line for touchdowns.

The only players at the position with a worse scoring rate on double-digit opportunities were Alexander Mattison (16.7%) and D’Andre Swift (20%).

I do anticipate a healthier version of Pollard to bounce back, the question is how much.

The other question is whether he once again has complete control of his backfield scoring opportunities paired with Tyjae Spears compared to the limited backfield depth of Dallas a year ago.

Pollard’s role near the end zone in 2023 also highlights the potential that role has if Dallas has a clear lead option in that area of the field this season.

As you can see above, Ezekiel Elliott was better than expected in the red zone last season with the Patriots.

Elliott had 16 rushes inside of the five-yard line with Dallas back in 2022, which was third in the NFL.

Pollard had 13 such rushes a year ago, which was eighth in the league.

Pollard was fifth among running backs in expected rushing touchdowns (11.0), opening the door for Elliott ‘s scoring chances should he control those touches.

Austin Ekeler found a similar fate last season after running hot in the red zone in each of the previous two seasons when he led the NFL in touchdowns.

Ekeler was seventh in expected fantasy points in the red zone but finished 26th in actual points scored.

He turned just 5-of-15 (33.3%) opportunities inside of the five-yard line into touchdowns after converting 17-of-24 (70.8%) the previous two seasons combined.

Similar to Pollard, we can factor in Ekeler rebounding to a degree, but his overall touch count is jeopardized now sharing a backfield with Brian Robinson.

Aaron Jones is another aging running back who ran cold near the end zone last season.

Jones finished ahead of only Mattison, Pollard, and Ekeler in points scored below expectations last season in the red zone.

Jones converted a career-low 4.6% of his red zone opportunities (2-of-44) after setting a new career-low the year prior (13.2%).

Jones had more touchdowns in the red zone in one playoff game against Dallas than he did over the entire regular season.

Jones becomes an interesting case because, over the past two seasons when his touchdown totals have dropped way off, the Packers favored A.J. Dillon at the goal line.

Jones only has two carries from the one-yard over the past two seasons while Dillon received eight.

Inside of the five-yard line, Jones only has eight total runs over the past two seasons while Dillon received 17.

Ty Chandler has a non-zero chance to be involved at the goal line. He converted all three of his runs inside of the five-yard line for touchdowns last season.

The Vikings have continuously suggested this offseason that Chandler will be involved more.

But Chandler (204 pounds) is a back that is in a similar archetype as Jones physically whereas Dillon’s size is something that coaching staffs can’t help but throw into short-yardage opportunities.

Before 2022, Jones had converted 19-of-34 (55.9%) runs inside of the five-yard line for touchdowns.

For an added layer of intrigue, the Vikings are a team that we identified as having a more balanced touchdown rate this season that was undoubtedly influenced by the performance that Alexander Mattison had in that area of the field last season.