Broncos vs. Raiders Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Broncos and Raiders on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Bo Nix: Nix found passing production tough to come by on Sunday.

Against a stingy Houston defense, Nix completed a season-low 48.6% of his passes for 4.7 yards per pass attempt.

He still managed to coax out a usable QB2 fantasy line (18.5 points) by adding 36 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns through the air.

It has not been a clean second season for Nix.

He has completed 61.2% of his passes (27th) for 6.1 yards per pass attempt (28th).

31.7% of his passes have resulted in a first down or touchdown, 23rd.

From a fantasy stance, he is 22nd in passing points per attempt (0.419), right between C.J. Stroud and Mac Jones.

We always handle Nix based on matchups.

He has been one of the most sensitive fantasy quarterbacks to matchups since the start of last season.

His top-10 scoring weeks this season have come against the Giants, Bengals, and Cowboys.

This is not as strong a layout as the latter two matchups there, but it is favorable enough to have Nix on board as a fringe QB1 option.

The Raiders are not a defense that scares anyone, but they have done their best to limit fantasy output despite lackluster personnel.

They are 14th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.416), right on par with Nix’s output.

They are allowing 14.0 passing points per game (14th).

They are allowing 10.4 yards per completion (9th), 7.1 yards per pass attempt (17th), and a 4.1% touchdown rate (13th).

Nix has had his most significant issues throwing downfield.

He has completed 40.9% of his passes (38 of 93) at 10 or more yards downfield, 29th in the league.

The Raiders are 30th in completion rate allowed on those throws (53.3%) and 28th in rating allowed (104.2).

Nix has the added ability to use his legs, and the Raiders have allowed 4.1 rushing points per game to quarterbacks, 27th in the league.

Geno Smith: Smith turned in his second QB1 scoring week of the season on Sunday, throwing for 284 yards (his most since Week 3) and a season-high 4 passing touchdowns.

That production came at home against the Jaguars.

This will be a significantly tougher matchup, keeping Smith as a back-end QB2.

Even without Pat Surtain, Denver can rush the passer.

Denver is third in pressure rate (42%) and has a league-high 11.9% sack rate.

When pressured, Smith has thrown for 5.7 yards per pass attempt (20th), a 1.4% touchdown rate (25th), and a league-high 7.1% interception rate.

On 148 attempts with Surtain off the field since the start of last year, Denver is allowing 6.4 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and a league-low 2.7% touchdown rate.

You can throw a grain of salt on the Denver defense since they faced Davis Mills for the majority, but Smith is still a tough sell for chasing a ceiling outcome here.

Especially since Las Vegas does not have an anchor WR1 target that Surtain was set to lock up in the first place.

Denver has allowed a 56.9% completion rate (2nd), 6.5 yards per attempt (6th), and a league-low 2.7% touchdown rate to opposing passers.

Running Back

Ashton Jeanty: Jeanty did not find much room on the ground on Sunday, rushing 13 times for 42 yards (3.2 YPC).

Finding room to run has been the story all season for the rookie.

Out of 44 running backs with 50 or more rushes this season, Jeanty has failed to gain yardage on a league-worst 30.6% of his runs.

Jeanty’s 0.60 yards before contact ranks 40th.

His 3.32 yards after contact per rush is 11th, so his limited rushing output is tethered to the state of his offensive line.

He is fourth among running backs in forced missed tackles on runs (31).

Although Jeanty did not find much success on the ground on Sunday, he caught all 5 of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown.

We have seen Jeanty get more involved as a pass catcher since the Raiders have had so many issues running the ball.

Since Week 5, Jeanty is eighth among running backs with 113 yards receiving.

Over that span, Jeanty is RB5 in target share (14.9%) and RB9 in route participation (55.8% of the dropbacks).

Jeanty will need to stay active in the passing game here as a volume-based RB2.

Denver is allowing 3.8 yards per carry to running backs (7th) with a 67.4% success rate (4th) against those runs.

They are allowing 0.88 yards before contact on those runs (5th).

Receiving work is not a lock here, either.

Running backs have a league-low 13.6% of the receptions allowed by Denver this season.

J.K. Dobbins: Dobbins turned 16 touches into 59 yards on Sunday.

We know what we have in Dobbins as a touchdown-dependent RB2/FLEX.

Dobbins has been an efficient runner, ranking seventh at the position in the rate of runs that gain 10 or more yards (14.8%) and 13th in the rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (14.8%).

But without a pass-catching role, he needs to run effectively and get into the end zone to bolster his fantasy output.

Dobbins has 9 catches for 30 yards this season, running a route on 30.8% of the Denver dropbacks (RB35).

The Raiders have played the run pretty well, but Dobbins should be able to garner volume via game script and has scoring potential.

Las Vegas is allowing 4.0 YPC to running backs (10th) and 0.73 yards before contact per rush (3rd) to the position.

What has hurt them is that they have allowed 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game to the position (30th), and since they are frequently in negative game scripts, they face 21.8 backfield runs per game (23rd).

RJ Harvey: Harvey caught 5 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

It was his third game in a row with a receiving touchdown and his fourth time over his past six getting into the end zone through the air.

Harvey is the inverse of Dobbins, and we really wish they were one back.

His fantasy role has been dependent on Denver dialing up opportunities for him in the passing game.

Harvey is fourth among running backs with a target on 24.5% of his routes.

The rub is that he has run one fewer pass route than Dobbins has.

Harvey’s 30.5% route participation rate is RB36.

Denver is sprinkling in designed touches for him, but Harvey still has only cleared 8 touches in a game once this season.

He has to keep running hot in the touchdown department as an RB3/FLEX.

If Denver can build out a lead, Harvey can potentially have access to more work.

It would be one thing if Harvey only had to contend with Dobbins, but Denver keeps playing Tyler Badie as a thorn for both backs.

Even on Sunday, Badie played 14 snaps (13 routes) compared to 19 snaps for Harvey (17 routes).

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton: Sutton only caught one pass on Sunday, but that one reception was at least a 30-yard touchdown.

Troy Franklin has surpassed Sutton in overall targets after last week.

His target rate per route (19.1%) is down from a 23.2% rate a year ago.

While the usage is more in the WR3 range, Sutton has faced a tough run of opposing cornerbacks over the past month, seeing Derek Stingley, Quinyon Mitchell, and Sauce Gardner over his past five games.

Sutton had only two games with lower than a WR3 scoring week and still has 181 more yards receiving than Franklin on 2 fewer targets.

While I would not suggest that Franklin has lapped Sutton, this is a spot where I would handle Sutton as a WR2.

There are some pros and cons to this matchup.

The Raiders are 27th in points allowed to outside receivers (24.0 per game), where Sutton plays 83% of his snaps.

Las Vegas is allowing 9.6 yards per target to those receivers, 26th in the league.

The Raiders do play a lot of zone, however.

They are 28th in rate of man coverage (14.5%) and play Cover 3 at the second-highest rate in the league (47.4%).

Sutton has been targeted on 17.2% of his routes against zone coverage compared to 26.2% against zone coverage.

He does jump to a 21.3% rate against Cover 3, but only 1.54 yards per route run.

Franklin has a higher target rate (24.8%) and more receiving yards against those coverages.

Troy Franklin: Franklin only managed 4 receptions for 27 yards on Sunday, but he did have a team-high 10 targets.

Franklin now has 10, 8, and 10 targets over the past three games, accounting for 20.4%, 29.6%, and 29.4% of the team's targets.

He is still only managing 1.38 yards per route run and has had more than 35 yards receiving in one of his past five games.

That keeps expectations for Franklin in check as a WR3/FLEX, but he continues to get targets that matter and has some positive matchup signals here.

Franklin has 34.3% of the Denver targets in the red zone, which is fifth in the league.

He leads the team with 7 end zone targets, which does not factor in the 3 two-point conversions he has.

No other player has multiple two-pointers this year.

Against Cover-3 looks, Franklin has been targeted on 24.8% of his routes for 2.35 yards per route.

Raiders WRs: Las Vegas wideouts have combined for two weeks with WR3 or better output over their past six games.

Both of those have been from Tre Tucker, who has the most receiving yards among the receivers in four straight games.

With Jakobi Meyers finally traded, that opens up some snaps.

It appeared that Jack Bech would be locked into those snaps, but the addition of Tyler Lockett is a potential thorn for Bech.

Bech did not play a snap last week despite being active, while Dont’e Thornton was a healthy scratch.

Lockett ran 12 routes, drawing 1 target.

The Raiders played 11 personnel on a season-low 30% of their offensive snaps.

Their previous low in a game was 59.7%.

With Brock Bowers healthy, we could see that continue.

Tucker offers per-target upside as a WR4/FLEX option, but this is a matchup where we do not have to chase the other wideouts.

The absence of Pat Surtain alleviates some of the matchup concerns here, but Denver still only allowed Houston wide receivers to catch 15 of 25 targets for 135 yards as a unit on Sunday.

Those 9.0 yards per catch were fifth-lowest in the league.

Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points per target to wide receivers (1.26).

Pat Bryant: We will keep tabs on Marvin Mims for Thursday night, but with a short week, he still may not clear concussion protocol in time to be active.

Bryant would only be a dart throw for single-game DFS and a deeper-end FLEX, but would stand to gain the most if Mims misses another game.

With Mims out last week, Bryant ran a route on a season-high 61.5% of the dropbacks, catching 2 of 3 targets for 20 yards.

Tight End

Brock Bowers: Back in action and fully healthy after battling a knee injury since Week 1, Bowers made up for lost time on Sunday, catching 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He had 34.2% of the targets and 45.5% of the air yards, which was the highest rate for a tight end in a game this season.

He opened up scoring with a seven-yard touchdown, isolated on Greg Newsome, falling and pulling a target in with one hand.

The play was initially ruled incomplete but was correctly overturned.

His second score came on a 27-yard touchdown, showcasing his YAC ability.

He took a short throw over the middle 18 more yards into the end zone.

His third touchdown was a two-yard catch in the back of the end zone.

At the end of the day, Bowers scored the most PPR fantasy points for any non-quarterback in a game this season.

Bowers was everywhere.

He ran 13 routes out wide, catching all 5 targets for 52 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He ran 18 routes from the slot, catching 6 of 7 targets for 73 yards.

He ran 4 routes in line, catching 1 target for 2 yards and a score.

Bowers is a front-end TE1, although he does run into a tougher draw on Thursday night.

Denver has allowed a 58.7% catch rate to tight ends, second in the league.

They are sixth in points allowed per target to the position.

They have not been impenetrable, however.

Tyler Warren (4-79-0), Daniel Bellinger (3-88-1), and Dalton Schultz (6-77-0) have had TE1 weeks against Denver, as well as Theo Johnson (3-66-1), although he had a 41-yard score on a throw that was not intended for him.

In two games against Denver last year, Bowers had games of 8-97-1 (12 targets) and 4-38-0 (10 targets).

Evan Engram: Engram was held without a catch on Sunday, receiving 3 targets.

Engram has not cleared 42 yards in a game this season while running a route on 57.8% of the team's dropbacks.

He is stuck as a TE2, but if you are forced to chase him here, the Raiders are allowing 8.4 yards per target to tight ends (26th).

Michael Mayer: Mayer only had 3 catches for 26 yards on Sunday, but he did see 7 targets come his way, which was second on the team.

Mayer is a touchdown-or-bust option, but the Raiders were 2TE heavy out of the bye.

The Raiders played 12 personnel on a season-high 58.3% of their snaps and used 13 personnel on an additional 8.3%.

They used 12 personnel on 65.9% of their passing plays, the third-highest rate among teams in a game this season.

That could be an outlier or by design out of the bye as something we will see moving forward, given the diversity that Bowers offers.

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