The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Chargers and Raiders.
Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Las Vegas | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 15.75 | Implied Total | 25.25 | ||
| 15.0 | 31 | Points/Gm | 22.4 | 20 |
| 25.2 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 10 |
| 58.5 | 25 | Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 8 |
| 61.9 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.3 | 2 |
| 4.6 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 14 |
| 5.2 | 12 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 8 |
| 38.35% | 29 | Rush% | 39.72% | 27 |
| 61.65% | 4 | Pass% | 60.28% | 6 |
| 45.52% | 22 | Opp. Rush % | 42.65% | 17 |
| 54.48% | 11 | Opp. Pass % | 57.35% | 16 |
- The Chargers are 6-0 in games they have led at the half and 1-4 in games they have not led at the half.
- The Chargers average 2.48 points per drive at home (8th) compared to 1.92 points per drive on the road (20th).
- The Raiders have scored 62.5 fewer points than their implied totals, the worst differential in the league.
- Over the past six weeks, Las Vegas has been last in the NFL in offensive EPA (-66.2).
- The Raiders have the worst sack differential in the league (-21).
- 51.8% of the Chargers' sets of downs reach third down, 30th in the league.
- The Chargers have converted 45.8% of their third downs, 2nd in the league.
- The Raiders have allowed a 43% conversion rate on third downs, 29th in the league.
- The Chargers have held opponents to a 35.4% conversion rate on third downs, 5th in the league.
- The Raiders have a league-low 34.4% success rate on rushing plays.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: A bye week put the Chargers out of our minds for a week, but the last time we saw them, they were an outright disaster in Jacksonville.
The Chargers had 135 yards of total offense in Week 11.
Herbert passed for a career-low 81 yards.
In the games that Joe Alt has missed, Herbert has now been the QB23 (14.6 points), QB14 (18.8 points), QB17 (14.7 points), and QB31 (3.3 points).
Herbert is now averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt and 6.3 air yards per attempt on 256 dropbacks with Alt off the field, compared to 8.3 Y/A and 9.1 air yards per attempt on 184 dropbacks with Alt on the field.
Maybe I am overreacting to what we last saw from the Chargers in Week 11, but that does not inspire a ton of confidence in being bullish on Herbert beyond a floor-based QB2.
I don’t believe they will be that bad again here at home off a bye.
The Raiders are a nondescript defense.
They are 21st in pressure rate (34.1%) and 27th in sack rate (5.4%).
They are allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (23rd) and a 4.9% touchdown rate (16th).
They have been worse of late.
They allowed 10.4 Y/A to Shedeur Sanders in a home loss a week after allowing 8.1 Y/A and 4 touchdowns to Dak Prescott.
Herbert has already faced the Raiders with Alt on the field and was the QB16 (18.8 points).
That would be a solid floor if we can get that with some potential that the Chargers fixed some things through the bye to offer more ceiling.
In that game, Herbert threw for 242 yards (9.0 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and 31 yards rushing.
Geno Smith: Smith has two QB1 scoring weeks to this point of the season.
He has passed for 6.7 yards per attempt (23rd) with the same 3.7% touchdown rate (28th) as interception rate (32nd) while taking a sack on 10.4% of his dropbacks (30th).
Attached to the second-lowest team of the week on the road, Smith is a back-end QB2 here.
The Chargers have allowed a league-low 9.5 passing points per game.
When these teams played in Las Vegas in Week 2, Smith was the QB34 (3.2 points), completing 55.8% of his passes for a season-low 4.2 yards per pass attempt and 3 interceptions.
If looking for some potential changes, the Raiders did fire Chip Kelly this past week, moving Greg Olson to offensive coordinator for the third different time in his career.
It may be too late in the season to make sweeping changes, given the lack of talent on this offense and the offensive line injuries, but it is something to keep tabs on this weekend.
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 13 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Packers @ Lions | Thanksgiving |
| Chiefs @ Cowboys | Thanksgiving |
| Bengals @ Ravens | Thanksgiving |
| Bears @ Eagles | Black Friday |
| 49ers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bills @ Steelers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Commanders | Sunday Night Football |
| Giants @ Patriots | Monday Night Football |