The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Bucs and Saints.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | Spread | -8.5 | ||
| 17.0 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 15.2 | 30 | Points/Gm | 23.3 | 17 |
| 24.6 | 22 | Points All./Gm | 25.1 | 23 |
| 63.5 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 13 |
| 61.0 | 14 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 10 |
| 4.7 | 29 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.1 | 23 |
| 5.2 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 26 |
| 39.90% | 27 | Rush% | 42.78% | 18 |
| 60.10% | 6 | Pass% | 57.22% | 15 |
| 51.09% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 38.59% | 4 |
| 48.91% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 61.41% | 29 |
- The Buccaneers are 6-1 against New Orleans under Todd Bowles.
- The Buccaneers are 7-0 when tied or leading at the half.
- The Saints have scored first in one game this season, the fewest in the league.
- New Orleans has been outscored 92-19 (-73) in the first quarter and 207-102 (-105) in the first half, the worst margin in the league.
- The Saints have scored 44.5 fewer points than their implied totals, 2nd-worst in the league.
- 51.2% of Tampa Bay's sets of downs reach third down, 28th in the league.
- 47.4% of Tampa Bay pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, 28th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Playing through an injured shoulder on his non-throwing arm, Mayfield was not pushed to do a lot of lifting on Sunday, but his run of QB2 performances continued.
With Mayfield’s shoulder injury paired with the return of Bucky Irving and controlling the game, the Bucs threw the ball 2% below expectations and 10% below expectations on first downs.
Completing 18 of 28 passes (64.3%) for 194 yards (6.9 Y/A) and a touchdown, Mayfield closed last week as the QB18 (14.5 points).
Mayfield has not thrown for 7.0 Y/A in a game since Week 6.
He has one QB1-scoring week in his past six games.
That includes a QB26 (4.1 points) finish when these teams played in Week 8.
That was the only game this season in which Mayfield did not throw a touchdown pass.
I would anticipate things to look better here, but Mayfield is still a floor-based QB2.
With his shoulder injury and the backfield and offensive line healthier, this game should feature a lot of running again.
When these teams played in Week 8, the Bucs had their lowest dropback rate of the season (48.2%), throwing the ball 8% below expectations.
A few positives are that Mayfield is back to running a bit, even with the shoulder injury.
He has added 39, 19, and 27 rushing yards in the past three weeks.
The Bucs are also getting healthier on offense.
He will have Irving, Chris Godwin, and Luke Goedeke on the field in this game. All of them missed the Week 8 matchup.
While Mayfield is throwing the ball in this rematch, he should find more success this time around.
The Saints are still a nondescript pass defense.
They are 26th in pressure rate (31.7%).
New Orleans is 27th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.495), but they only face 27.5 pass attempts per game (2nd-fewest) because it is a bad real football team that has trailed more snaps than any other team in the league.
Tyler Shough: Shough has ping-ponged between bad and usable weeks as a starter, closing his weeks as the QB23, QB11, QB22, and QB12 in scoring.
He was rough again last week, throwing for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt and an interception (and a pick-2 that did not count against him for fantasy but did cost the Saints the game).
However, Shough racked up enough passing volume with 2 touchdowns and 18 rushing yards to turn in a viable fantasy line.
Shough is averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt since Week 8 (QB23) but has dropped back 37.3 times per game as a starter (QB14).
Shough is a volume-based QB2 who can moonlight as a streamer when he throws multiple touchdowns.
Tampa Bay has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games if you need something to chase.
His first appearance of the season came against the Bucs.
He entered that game cold but completed 17 of 30 passes (56.7%) for 128 yards (4.3 Y/A) with an interception.
Shough’s biggest issue during his rookie season has been handling the heat.
He has flashed when kept clean, completing 73.4% of his passes for 7.1 Y/A (but also 3 interceptions).
When pressured, he drops to a 42.1% completion rate and 4.9 yards per pass attempt.
Against the blitz with or without pressure, Shough has completed just 46.9% of his passes, which is 31st in the league since Week 8.
The Bucs are sixth in pressure rate (39.2%) and fifth in blitz rate (31.4%).
Running Back
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Learn MoreMore Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |