Chargers vs. Steelers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 10 matchup between the Chargers and Steelers on Sunday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 10 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Justin Herbert: Herbert has been a top-five scorer in each of the past three weeks, but another shadow is cast with the season-ending injury to Joe Alt.

On 184 dropbacks with Alt on the field this season, Herbert has averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 9.1 air yards per attempt, a 7.1% touchdown rate, a 1.9% interception rate, and 0.56 fantasy points per dropback.

On 193 dropbacks with Alt off the field this year, Herbert has averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 6.9 air yards per attempt, a 4.1% touchdown rate, a 2.9% interception rate, and 0.44 fantasy points per dropback.

In the two games Alt missed outright, Herbert was QB23 (14.6 points) and QB14 (18.8 points) against the Commanders and Dolphins, two of the softer pass defenses we have targeted weekly.

The Chargers did trade for Trevor Penning at the deadline in an effort to throw what they could at the tackle position.

The Steelers adjusted against the Colts last week, blitzing on a season-low 23.6% of dropbacks.

They played a season-low Cover 3 rate (24.3%), down from 39.7% in Weeks 1 through 8.

They played a season-high rate of two-high safeties (47.3%) after a 34.2% rate before.

How static was that, or was that game-plan specific?

Pittsburgh traded for Kyle Dugger last week after losing DeShon Elliott, but they also used Jalen Ramsey in a different capacity.

Ramsey played a season-high 55 snaps at free safety on Sunday after 44 in total through seven games.

He only played 6 snaps at slot corner after 217 coming into last week.

He played a season-high 15 snaps in the box.

His deployment will be interesting to follow this week, as he played a key role in slowing down Tyler Warren.

For all the good Pittsburgh did defensively last week, I am not ready to go all in and say they have fixed everything.

We still need to let things breathe.

They still leaned on turnovers to swing the game.

On the drives they did not get a turnover, they still allowed 3.33 points per drive.

For the year, they are 25th in points allowed per drive without a takeaway (2.76).

In bulk, Pittsburgh has allowed 17.5 passing points per game (29th).

This matchup has a ton of moving parts and plenty of volatility, given Alt's injury and Pittsburgh's defense's up-and-down performance.

I believe the Chargers will have to throw heavily to win here and will not find success on the ground.

An added out for Herbert is that he is rushing for a career-high 33.9 yards per game.

He has at least 30 yards rushing in six games this season, with only two below 24 yards.

Herbert still has upside, but I prefer to chase that in single-game DFS and would handle more as a boom-or-bust QB2 here.

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers was not asked to do a lot on Sunday and played conservatively.

He completed 25 of 35 passes for 203 yards (5.8 Y/A) and a touchdown.

Rodgers only averaged 2.9 air yards per pass attempt, the third-lowest rate for a passer in a game this season.

Rodgers has thrown the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage on 32.5% of his passes.

Only Kyler Murray (35.4%) has a higher rate.

Only 23% of Rodgers’ throws have been 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.

The league average is 32.4%.

When Rodgers has thrown the ball 10 or more yards downfield, he is 26th in completion rate (42.9%).

This is how the Chargers operate defensively.

They are second to last in rate of man coverage (11.6%) and play two-high on 56.7% of their snaps (sixth highest).

They want to push shorter throws and come up and tackle.

As a byproduct, the Chargers allow 6.4 yards per pass attempt (3rd), allowing a 39.5% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield (second in the league).

I expect Rodgers will have to rely on those shorter throws, forcing him to run hot in the touchdown department to carry his fantasy production.

The Chargers have allowed a 2.9% touchdown rate, second in the league.

Rodgers does have a 7% touchdown rate (5th), so that is a possible outcome, but with no rushing production and a reliance on touchdown passes, Rodgers is a fantasy QB2.

Running Back

Jaylen Warren: Warren only managed 29 yards on 18 touches Sunday, but he found the end zone twice on the ground to elevate his fantasy line.

Those were his first touchdowns of the season.

Warren handled 80% of the backfield rushing attempts but ran a route on only 38.5% of the dropbacks, his lowest rate since Week 1.

Warren was on the field for 59% of the dropbacks in Week 8, so that is something to keep tabs on versus worrying about.

He has at least 15 touches in every game this season, which keeps him in play as an RB2.

If Warren has to lean on rushing output, the Chargers have allowed 5.0 yards per carry to running backs (27th) with a 57.5% success rate against those runs (25th).

36.4% of Warren’s runs have come on inside zone runs (third highest) and 35.4% on outside zone (17th).

The Chargers have been excellent against inside zone runs, allowing 3.9 YPC and 0.61 yards before contact per rush (5th).

But against outside zone runs, the Chargers allow 5.3 YPC (29th) and 1.47 yards before contact per rush (24th).

If Warren does bounce back as a receiver, running backs have 23.5% of the receptions allowed by the Chargers, the fourth-highest rate in the league.

Kimani Vidal: Vidal only managed 30 total yards on 12 touches on Sunday against the Titans.

Vidal has been completely boom or bust, totaling 138, 35, 127, and 30 yards over the past four weeks.

He handled only 54.6% of the backfield touches on Sunday, his lowest rate over that span.

Jaret Patterson outproduced Vidal with 44 yards on his 8 touches.

4 of those touches came in the fourth quarter, but Vidal’s performance against a shaky run defense does not inspire confidence here.

We also have to factor in Alt’s injury for the running game.

Charger running backs have averaged 5.1 YPC without Alt on the field this season, but mind you that the crux of those carries came against the Giants and Dolphins.

When Alt missed Week 5 against the Commanders, their running backs had 21 runs for 75 yards (3.6 YPC).

Vidal ran for 3.3 YPC after Alt exited on Sunday.

This is just an inconsistent run game, and it's been that way all season.

This is also not a matchup to chase upside from, which is why Vidal is an RB3/FLEX option this week.

The Steelers are sixth in points allowed per touch to running backs (0.77).

They have allowed 0.88 yards before contact on running back runs (4th).

They are coming off allowing 3.2 YPC to Jonathan Taylor and 3.3 YPC to Josh Jacobs the past two weeks.

33.3% of Vidal’s runs have been inside zone, the 8th-highest rate in the league.

The Steelers are allowing 3.4 YPC on those runs to running backs, sixth in the league.

25.8% of Vidal’s attempts have been power concepts, the highest rate in the league.

In only four starts, Vidal has 17 of those runs, which is 5th on the season.

The Steelers are allowing 2.0 YPC on those runs, third in the league.

Wide Receiver

Ladd McConkey: McConkey collected 4 of 7 targets for 56 yards on Sunday.

We knew that McConkey was running hot on touchdown production to boost his lines in recent weeks, but he has found stability in target opportunities.

McConkey had 25% of the targets on Sunday.

That was his third game in a row at 25% or higher, and his fifth game in a row at 20% or higher.

Now that we are halfway through the season, McConkey is second on the team with a target on 21.9% of his routes while running a route on 89.9% of the dropbacks.

He is not living as the fringe WR1 he was drafted as, but McConkey is a floor-based WR2.

I believe this will be a heavy dropback game for the Chargers.

And even though the Steelers did a lot of real football things well last week, they still allowed a ton of production to the Indianapolis wide receivers.

Colts wideouts combined for 22 receptions for 294 yards and a touchdown.

Pittsburgh allows a league-high 16.1 receptions and a league-high 196.5 yards per game to receivers.

DK Metcalf (TRUST): Metcalf only caught 2 of 4 targets for 6 yards Sunday, his lowest totals of the season.

The low depth of the target and the conservative nature of the passing game on Sunday played a role here.

Metcalf averaged 0.18 air yards.

We have no stability with Metcalf in fantasy.

He has three WR1 scoring weeks and three weeks as WR40 or lower.

Over the past four games, he has been WR10, WR42, WR12, and WR77 in weekly scoring.

Even though the Chargers force shorter throws, they have struggled against lead receivers, keeping the door open for Metcalf to oscillate back to a good week.

The Chargers are 20th in points allowed to WR1 targets (15.3 per game), allowing solid outings to Marquise Brown (10-99-0), Courtland Sutton (6-118-1), Deebo Samuel (8-96-1), Michael Pittman (7-58-1), Jaylen Waddle (6-95-0), and Justin Jefferson (7-74-0).

Metcalf has a target on 22.4% of his routes against zone coverages this season compared to 11.3% against man coverage.

The Chargers are in Cover 3 or Cover 4 for 64% of their snaps.

Against those coverages, Metcalf has a team-high 27.8% target share with 2.30 yards per route.

Quentin Johnston: Johnston pulled in 4 of 5 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

He has scored in five of eight games this season.

We mentioned this the past two weeks, but Johnston was not going to be a complete pumpkin the rest of the way because he is on the field so much and has a role near the end zone.

Targets were and are going to find him; he has just shifted towards more of an upside WR3 than a locked-in WR2 for fantasy.

Johnston still has not had more than 6 targets in a game since Week 4.

His dip in targets overlaps McConkey’s spike.

That has made Johnston more touchdown-dependent, which is what he was at the end of last season.

31.9% of his fantasy points have now been scored via touchdowns.

The other top-36 wideouts with 30% or more of their fantasy points via touchdowns are Davante Adams (36.1%), Tee Higgins (30.5%), and Kayshon Boutte (31.2%).

Johnston has plenty of volatility, but he is on the field for 88% of the dropbacks in his games played.

I am expecting the Chargers to throw a lot here, and the Steelers have allowed the most fantasy points to outside receivers this season (29.2), where Johnston plays 85% of his snaps.

Keenan Allen: Allen has only had 5 targets in each of the past two weeks, running a route on 50% and 53.8% of the dropbacks.

He was at a 75% route rate before that.

That happened because the Chargers ran more heavy personnel.

Over the past two weeks, the Chargers have played at 38.6% and 27.7% rates with 22 personnel, and at 11.4% and 15.4% rates with 21 personnel.

On those snaps, Tre Harris has gotten more involved due to his run blocking, which has chipped away at Allen’s snaps.

The Chargers could play heavier to insulate their offensive line, but I would suggest that spike in those rates has more to do with game script.

I do not believe they are going to line up and run the ball against the Steelers, and that approach would be doing them a favor.

Allen is still a WR3/FLEX, but this is a spot I would bet on a bounce back.

I am anticipating the Chargers to play more 11 personnel here and Allen’s routes to spike on Sunday night.

If we get more routes from Allen, he leads the team with a target on 27.7% of his routes and averages more yards per route (1.92) than both McConkey (1.53) and Johnston (1.52).

Calvin Austin: Austin caught 5 of 6 targets for 56 yards on Sunday.

He has had 6 targets in each of his games back in the lineup, receiving 18.8% and 17.1% of the looks.

Austin is a floor-based WR5/FLEX option here against a zone-based defense.

Austin has the inverse splits as Metcalf.

He has been targeted on 26.8% of his routes against man coverage compared to 15.3% and zone coverage.

In his two games back, that is a 36.4% rate against man coverage compared to a 16.3% rate against zone.

Tight End

Oronde Gadsden: Gadsden grabbed all 5 targets for 68 yards on Sunday, staying steady.

Gadsden has at least 5 receptions in each of the past four games.

His target rates per route have dropped each week over that stretch, going from 26.7% t0 18.8% to 16.1% to 15.2%, but his route rates remain high when the Chargers do throw.

He has been on the field for 91.2% and 84.6% of the dropbacks these past two weeks.

Gadsden remains a viable TE1 option in a game we project will feature more dropbacks as a team.

I am interested in seeing how the Steelers use Ramsey in this matchup compared to last week against Warren, but I do not know whether Pittsburgh will focus on Gadsden.

Even factoring in Warren’s down week, the Steelers still allow 8.4 yards per target (27th) and an 8.7% touchdown rate (27th) to tight ends.

Steelers TEs: You know what you are signing up for with these tight ends.

All of Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and Jonnu Smith cannibalize each other from a fantasy stance.

You are trying to guess which guy gets into the end zone.

Freiermuth led the group with 20 routes (51.3%) on Sunday, catching 3 of 4 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown.

Smith ran 17 routes (43.6%), catching 3 of 5 targets for 25 yards.

Washington ran 16 routes (41%), catching 4 of 6 targets for 43 yards.

All three of these tight ends average below 1.0 yards per route against Cover 3 and Cover 4.

The Chargers are allowing 6.9 yards per target (10th) to tight ends, but they have allowed an 8.5% touchdown rate (26th) to the position.

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