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Super Bowl 59 Prediction: Jahan Dotson More Than 0.5 Receptions
This number seems crazy low for a player who has been on the field for a whopping 75% of pass attempts from Jalen Hurts.
Jahan Dotson is the clear WR3 for the Eagles, but the key is the Eagles have pivoted more into 11 personnel (3 WRs on the field).
There were only 3 teams that used 11 personnel at a rate above 71% last year (qtrs. 1-3): Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks.
With healthy receivers, the Eagles were at 72% 11 personnel in the last month of the regular season.
This postseason, they are up to 81% 11 personnel.
But even more telling, the Eagles lead all playoff teams in the rate of 11 personnel in the first half of games (85%).
They then drop to 41% in the second half (13th of the 14 teams) when they are leading and trying to run out the clock.
The odds they have a comfortable second half lead and are NOT trying to still score against the back-to-back Super Bowl Champs are low.
That means an even larger rate of Dotson routes.
Dotson is terrible and doesn’t earn targets very well, but we just need ONE catch, and he’ll be on the field a TON.