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Best NFL Week 11 Games to Bet On

The NFL's Week 11 schedule is so good that it's hard to pick a few games. Here are our two favorite bets of the week and an in-depth preview of each game, which should be the best Sunday of the 2025 regular season.

Sunday | 1:00 PM ET | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills (-5.5, O/U 47.5)

You'd think the sky is falling for both teams coming off a loss while they're still 6-3. But that's what happens when you have a high standard of expecting to win your division every year. The Buccaneers are still in good shape in the NFC South, but the Bills have some serious work to do, as the Patriots are 8-2 and likely 9-2 by Sunday's kickoff, having played the Jets on Thursday night. The Bills can't afford another slip-up, especially at home, where they usually win.

But this has not been a typical Buffalo season, especially compared to 2024. The Bills have already turned the ball over 8 times in their three losses after committing just 8 turnovers in 20 games last year (playoffs included). Josh Allen made some uncharacteristic mistakes in Miami last week, and the defense was shredded for almost 200 rushing yards. Everything the Bills did so well against the Chiefs the week before didn't show up against Miami.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay appears to be a team missing its best running back (Bucky Irving) and two veteran wide receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin). Their chances of getting any of those players back this week are not great either, and that's why we're seeing Baker Mayfield's efficiency slip so much this season. The Bucs were the No. 1 offense on third down last year, and they are 24th this season in conversion rate. That's at least one area where the Bills have been fine, as they are still No. 5 on third down.

But the Bills rarely lose two in a row, and they have some advantages with the Bucs down to one trustworthy receiver in rookie Emeka Egbuka. They might be able to slow him down like the Patriots did, while Allen can take over and play a cleaner game at home against a Tampa Bay defense that kind of forces you to throw more against their suspect corners, as they are too strong up front (read: Vita Vea) to run the ball again. In other words, it's an opportunity for a Josh Allen masterclass at home after a loss and not the day to bet big on James Cook's rushing props. The Bills know they aren't throwing it enough, and they should get that corrected here.

Sunday | 4:05 PM ET | Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3, O/U 48.5)

We could be looking at the best teams in the NFC, if not the whole NFL, right now, as the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams are both 7-2 and coming into this game hot. Neither has had a truly bad game yet this year, as the Seahawks were right there in both losses to the 49ers and Buccaneers, where Sam Darnold turned the ball over late. The Rams were the same way, with a blocked field goal and a blown 19-point lead costing them a win in Philadelphia, and then they were stopped on fourth down in overtime against the 49ers.

Both teams are strong defensively, boasting great pass rushers and underrated coverage in the secondary. Obviously, the quarterbacks have been lighting it up all year, too, and are in the MVP discussion. Darnold is continuing his hot play from last year with Minnesota on his new team, and Stafford is having his most efficient season yet for Sean McVay. He's thrown 20 touchdowns and no interceptions since Week 4.

The Seahawks are 8-3 ATS on the road under Mike Macdonald, so that's something to keep in mind. But there may be a few reasons to pick the Rams this week, with a rematch to come in Seattle later this season. First, Darnold has one great receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is playing as well as everyone. The Cooper Kupp revenge game angle is possible, and they just traded for Rashid Shaheed from the Saints. Darnold has weapons, but the one guy you really have to watch for is JSN. Meanwhile, Stafford has two No. 1 receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who are two of the most prolific ball hogs in NFL history at the position. The Rams are also thriving on play-action and utilizing three tight ends to create wide-open receivers for big plays.

Then there's the pass rush. The Vikings were swept by the Rams last year, with the pass rush getting after Darnold, including 9 sacks for almost 90 yards in the wild-card game. They forced him into a fumble for a touchdown, so that could be in the back of his mind (or the front) this week when he has to face his nemesis again on the road. The Seahawks have been blowing teams out early since the bye week, but we know the Rams have comeback ability with Stafford's long history of game-winning drives. It should be an entertaining game and crucial for the NFC.