The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to clinch their fourth consecutive NFC South title as they host the New Orleans Saints in a pivotal Week 18 matchup. With the Bucs entering as a dominant 13.5-point favorite and key players like Mike Evans and Bucky Irving poised for standout performances, bettors and fans alike are gearing up for an exciting showdown. Dive into our game analysis, betting predictions, and exclusive BetMGM bonus code SFAPLAY offer to make the most of this must-watch divisional clash.
- Spread: Buccaneers -13.5
- Total: O/U 43.5
- Defense Advantage: The Buccaneers rank No. 5 against the run and have held their last seven opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards.
- Offensive Mismatch: Tampa is No. 3 in rushing yards per carry (5.2) and has already rushed for a season-high 277 yards against the Saints in Week 6. The Saints allow the second-highest yards per carry (4.9) this season.
- BetMGM bonus code SFAPLAY: Get up to $1,500 back if your first bet loses.
- Risk Factors: Division rematches can get weird, New Orleans can play spoiler to Tampa’s division title hopes, and the Saints have a better spread record in division games (3-2) than the Buccaneers (2-3) this season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Best Bet Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one win away from their fourth NFC South title in a row, but they’ll have to take care of the New Orleans Saints, who enter as a 13.5-point road underdog at BetMGM with a total of 43.5 points. While the attention will be on Mike Evans as he needs 85 yards to continue his streak of 1,000-yard seasons, our Sharp Money is focusing on Bucky Irving’s rushing prop set to 84.5 yards.
Baker Is Cooking with Fire for Tampa’s Offense
Even though the Buccaneers lost slot wideout Chris Godwin for the season, Baker Mayfield has been on fire with a career-high 39 touchdown passes and 71.7% completions. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has done a great job of scheming other receivers open such as rookie Jalen McMillan, who has six touchdown catches in the last four games.
Mayfield looks to put the cap on another division title with one of the most balanced offenses in the league:
- The Buccaneers are No. 4 in EPA/pass (+0.12) and No. 6 in EPA/run (+0.03).
- Mayfield’s passing success rate is 54.2%, the second-highest rate in 2024.
- Leading receiver Mike Evans needs just 85 receiving yards to notch an 11th-straight 1,000-yard receiving season to begin his career.
The Saints’ Scoring Woes
While the calendar has switched to 2025, it feels like ages ago when the New Orleans Saints were 2-0 and Derek Carr had eye-popping numbers in an offense that was utilizing play-action at incredible rates. But after a 7-game losing streak and a slew of injuries, the Saints are a 5-11 mess that will have serious questions about who will be leading the team on the field next season.
But when players like Carr, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, and Taysom Hill are all out with injuries, the offense is a shell of itself. That puts a heavy burden on rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who is expected to start again.
Rattler is 0-5 as a starter, and he’s led the Saints to no more than 10 points in four of them. In fact, his first start was against Tampa Bay, and the Saints scored all 27 of their points in the second quarter. But with the spread and total here, expectations are very low for Rattler being able to pierce a Tampa defense that has the playoffs in sight.
- The Saints are the only team to be shutout this year, losing 34-0 in Green Bay in Week 16.
- New Orleans is averaging 11.0 points per game in its last four road games.
- The Buccaneers have held 4-of-6 opponents since the bye week to 17 points or fewer.
Offensive Edge: Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have won in Detroit and took the Chiefs to overtime this year. They’ve dropped 40 points on the Chargers’ top-ranked defense, and they already smoked the Eagles’ elite defense at home. It would be a massive disappointment if they didn’t come through in this game at home to win the NFC South again.
The Buccaneers are a yardage machine that should be able to:
- Rookie Bucky Irving rushed for 81 yards in New Orleans and has averaged 90.2 yards per game since taking over as the lead back in Week 12.
- Tampa Bay is the first offense since the 2018 Saints to have three games in a season with at least 500 yards and 40 points scored.
- Turnovers can be an equalizer for the underdog, but the Saints have forced just one takeaway in the last six games.
- The Saints are 0-10 when allowing 20-plus points this season.
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- Consider the under on a team total for the Saints
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