Inside The Isolator, Week 4 Edition

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A look at interesting angles, concepts & analysis collected during this week’s research sessions spent strapped…..                      “Inside The Isolator”

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A weekly feature which will essentially be an “emptying the notebook” collection of tidbits I uncovered each week which didn’t make it into my writeups or analysis that I shared with clients for the week.  Occasional free plays will also appear.  This will be distributed every Saturday night over the course of the season… or until the gas cuts off inside of this thing…

To receive this weekly feature in your inbox as soon as it is released, make sure you’re on the mailing list:

What I Saw

… A perfect example of why sportsbooks make money.  Had there been more of a meteoric rise and fall of Colin Kaepernick?  He went from being the “Answer” after replacing Alex Smith and leading the 49ers to the playoffs, to being a “Question mark” after looking lost in a thrashing in Seattle and then playing bad at home vs the Colts.  Everything in this business is about FEEDING OFF OF PUBLIC perception and in this day and age of 24×7 sports networks, its not hard to turn a snowflake into an avalanche speeding down a mountainside.

… Teams who won their games last week went 15-0-1 ATS (100%).  This happened twice last year, and once in 2011.  But don’t listen to those “prodigys” who tell you “just bet ATS on the team you think will win the game, because they cover 83% of the time.”  Wow, young Jedi, you’ve uncovered the secret that’s going to bankrupt Las Vegas!  First, though, rule out the games lined between 1-3, because yes, teams who win those games OBVIOUSLY cover at a ridiculous rate (96%).  Now look at games lined more than a FG either way, and now teams who win cover the spread 76% of the time.  So the prodigy’s trick fails 25% of the time, and when you’re putting money down on a gamble where 2-3% makes all the difference between losing (52.0%) or having what all betting syndicate groups would love to see, a 55% win rate, why should anyone dismiss 25% as “irrelevant”?

… A Kansas City team who won just 2 games last year, start out 3-0 this year.  They are just the second team since 1980 to start the season’s first 3 weeks  winning more games than they won in the entirety of last season.  And now they can hit the record books.  If they beat the Giants today, since moving to 16 game seasons, there will be no other team who has more wins to start the season off of a max-2 win campaign than the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs.

… Speaking of those Giants.  Wow.  Good Job, Good Effort in Carolina last week.  In franchise history, the Giants only suffered 2 shutout losses worse:  1948 in Philadelphia (0-45) and 1973 in Oakland (0-42).

What I Want to See

… There are 3 matchups this week pitting 0-3 teams vs. another losing team.  (Pit/Min, Ari/TB and Was/Oak).  But to start the season, it would be hard to imagine that the Jets @ Titans would pit two teams who were 2-1.  That said, I really don’t want to see this game but of course, since we can gamble on it, I will be watching.

… If Russell Wilson has improved his road game, and if Schaub and Kubiak wilt or rise against a very stout defense.

… The best divisional game of the weekend, the Bears vs the Lions.  Will the young offensive line of the Bears outperform the loud, trash talking line of the Lions?  Will Cutler get bent into origami or will he prevail under Tressman’s tutelage?

… Tom Brady make egg salad out of egg sh*t.  He had to do it for years back in the early to mid 2000s before the Patriots brought in some stellar receiving weapons for him.  He turned guys like David Givens, David Patten and Deion Branch into household names, some of which got big contracts elsewhere only to fail miserably.  Brady has to face the strong Falcons in their home, which they defend quite well, with a bare cupboard.

… Will there be a mutiny in Tampa Bay?  The Buccaneers have swash-buckled their fans into buying season tickets, only to force their starting quarterback to walk the plank after just 3 weeks.  If the young rookie can’t right the ship, it may be Greg Schiano getting the black spot next.  And no quarter will be given to Schiano, as he takes his booty from the Glazers with him to Davy Jones’ Locker.

What I Don’t Want to See

… A sloppy game over in London.  Its not bad enough that they have to watch two 0-3 teams battle head to head on the long grass, but let’s hope they get to see some excitement as the two run-oriented teams battle to see who can rip apart the soft track the fastest.

… The Eagles continue to struggle offensively.  We understand your defense isn’t very good, but this team has had 10 days of rest to prepare their offense, if they don’t execute against the Broncos, they’ll certainly drop to 1-3.  On a positive note?  That still very well will put them in 2nd place in the NFC East, my, how the mighty division has fallen.

What I Found

… While I’ve certainly knocked their defense, is it meaningful at all to mention stats without adjusting for strength of opponent?  The Redskins defense is miserable, but saying they’re on pace to be worse than the Saints record setting defense last year is just foolish.  They played the Eagles, Packers and Lions.  Each team is top 5 in yds/pass and top 5 in my EDSR metric.  Moving forward, they play the Raiders, and then things get much easier.  They play… wait… the Cowboys, Bears and Broncos offenses in back to back to back weeks?  Good luck with that.

… The Falcons have never been favored at home in the Georgia Dome to a 3-0 or better team before, and the Patriots have never been undefeated and made a dog on the road to a team who is below .500.

What the Custom Data Shows

… Tampa Bay avoids 3rd down on just 2% of their offensive first downs, ranking 31st in the league ahead of only Jacksonville.  It’s not surprising they wanted to make a change, especially with a defense that ranks 2nd in my “30 and In TD %” metric, allowing only 1 TD on a drive which began inside their opponents 30 yard line.

… The Patriots defense FINALLY gets put to the test.  Having faced back to back rookie QBs and then a QB who walked the plank last week, they now have to face Matt Ryan.  The Patriots defense ranked 3rd in EDSR (but that did adjust for opponent) and #1 in 30 and in TD % defense.  But the Falcons offense ranks 14th in EDSR and 9th in 30 and in TD %, so this should be an intriguing matchup.

… If you love looking at new, cutting edge stats and are tired of the same old boring analysis, get my detailed writeups and plays this season without paying anything, and I’ll share more information than you’d ever hope to find from a NFL service (and I win, too).

What I’m Betting

… My 2013 NFL record stands at 65% thru 3 weeks.

… I am off another winning CFB weekend 57% winners, and now I’m 58% YTD in college football.

… My week 4 Inside the Isolator teaser?  NYJ +10.5 with Chicago +10

… Most importantly, I have a special for all of you who are either with another service who is losing this season, or have not been as good on your own as you hoped and are looking for historically winning plays which are off to a fast start….

Get ALL of my plays for the rest of the regular season and PAY NOTHING until March 2014, and NO INTEREST either!

Good Luck and enjoy your fourth Sunday of the 2013 NFL Season!

Inside the Isolator, Week 3 Edition

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A look at interesting angles, concepts & analysis collected during this week’s research sessions spent strapped…..                      “Inside The Isolator”

__________________________________________________

A weekly feature which will essentially be an “emptying the notebook” collection of tidbits I uncovered each week which didn’t make it into my writeups or analysis that I shared with clients for the week.  Occasional free plays will also appear.  This will be distributed every Saturday night over the course of the season… or until the gas cuts off inside of this thing…

To receive this weekly feature in your inbox as soon as it is released, make sure you’re on the mailing list:

 

What I Saw

… As I stated after their week 1 game, the Eagles offense isn’t all you thought it was.  The last 2 weeks, we’re finally seeing why.  As with most things, it’s not 100% the offense – that defense is just as bad as it was in 2012, which was BAD!

… Andy Reid will see what Jim Harbaugh already saw – Alex Smith can get you regular season wins, but come the playoffs when you’re facing premier QB talent, Alex Smith won’t win games going up against them.  The Chiefs offense looked pathetic on Thursday, and they were fortunate to leave Philly with the win (and several Eagles turnovers).

… A team who disappointed me with their win and impressed me with their loss.  The Bengals beat the Steelers by 10 on Monday night, but they played better vs. the Bears in Chicago than they did at home vs the Steelers.  Jay Gruden really needs to work on his run/pass ratio and that defensive line needs to get more pressure.  If you said your first 2 opponents of the year were Jay Cutler & the Bears offensive line (with 2 rookies making their first NFL start), followed by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offensive line (sans Pouncey), you better come away with 2 total sacks between both games.

… The very meaning of home field advantage, incarnate, in Seattle vs the 49ers.  In today’s NFL where everything is luxury suites, expensive tickets and geared towards the more sophisticated, big spending fans, the Seahawks have the best home field advantage in the NFL.  They are 5-0 in home playoff games since 2005, the only NFL team to post an undefeated home record in the playoffs playing a minimum of 5 home games the last 8 postseasons.  Look out if they clinch home field throughout, although we’ll see, but they may have done just that by beating the 49ers last week.

What I Want to See

… The Chiefs face a quality opponent.  Will Alex Smith actually move the ball downfield if his team needs him to do so?  Unfortunately, aside from the Giants next week in Kansas City, they don’t face a well rounded team until week 7 vs the Texans.  Its great for those of us who have a KC over team wins, but as a fan of football, I’m looking forward to seeing Reid/Smith face off against higher scoring opponents with at least average defenses.

… The Saints finally impress me.  I keep hearing about how they have Sean Payton back and they’re going to impress.  So far, it’s been more Rob Ryan than Sean Payton impressing me.  But apparently today’s the day, as the pundits expect the Saints to explode at home vs the Cardinals.  They are 2-0 but their offense has been anything but impressive.

… Jerry Jones explain why his team is the worst favorite in the NFL.  He sure had the answers for why his team didn’t win vs the Chiefs.  It was simple.  They were underdogs, silly.  So they were supposed to lose.  So if the Cowboys don’t win as a dog, don’t bother asking Jerry why.  He’ll just do this  ———————————>

… The famous read-option quarterbacks from last season actually look “comfortable” and play well.  Kaepernick had a great game week 1, but as a pocket passer.  He looked totally nervous when running, and did the same in Seattle.  Cam Newton and RGIII have yet to really look comfortable so far this season, for totally different reasons.

What I Don’t Want to See

… Tony Romo botch another game at the end.  Although I had KC on the moneyline, Romo must turn the corner.  His future hasn’t been decided, but like one of those “choose your own adventure” books, unless he starts making some better decisions, his story will be the one that’s already written, which is a kid with talent and potential but ultimately was a pure choke artist.

… The Browns fans start to lose hope in their franchise.  Look, I realize you just traded away your best offensive player and you bought those season tickets hoping to see Weeden and Richardson, under the tutelage of Chud and Turner, take your team to the next level.  But I’ll level with you…. if the latest front office move forces you to start losing hope, you must believe in leprechauns and the tooth fairy, because the rest of the league has known for years of the hopeless, desolate and barren destination known as the Factory of Sadness.

What I Found

… Some people STILL want to talk about the Miami Dolphins as if they’re a terrible home favorite.  Sure, they WERE.  From 2003 thru 2010, the Dolphins were the WORST NFL home favorite in the league, covering just 14% and going 5-30 ATS….

…but guess what?  Only 5 teams have a better ATS % as a home favorite the last 2 years than the Dolphins, who have won 63% ATS.  So why don’t you do some real research and quote real, current numbers instead of pulling out your 2009 notebook and rattling off ancient, outdated angles.

… My new, custom analytics, EDSR and 30 & In TD % actually kick ass and are great tools for handicapping games.

… Annual mainstays in the top 5 for yards/pass attempt, the Patriots rank 31st this year!  Yikes, better ask Ray Lewis for some of his deer antler velvet extract to squirt onto Gronk’s back and to coat the entire body of Danny Amendola.

What the Custom Data Shows

… The NFL average is that on almost 30% of your first downs, you are able to bypass and avoid 3rd down en route to your next set of downs.  The Eagles allow opponents to bypass 3rd down on a whopping 57% of first downs, a ridiculous figure and worst in the league.

… On drives which originate inside the their own 30 yard line, the opponents of the Dallas Cowboys have taken 38% of said drives the entire length of the field AND score touchdowns.  That’s the highest percentage in the league and is embarrassing.

… If you love looking at new, cutting edge stats and are tired of the same old boring analysis, get my detailed writeups and plays this season without paying anything, and I’ll share more information than you’d ever hope to find from a NFL service (and I win, too).

What I’m Betting

… My 2013 NFL record stands at 11-2 (85%) thru 2 weeks.

… I am off a CFB weekend posting a 4-2 (67%) record on my larger plays and a 7-4 (64%) overall record.  And as clients from last year can attest, the more data I take in, the stronger the results get over the course of the year.

… I have 3 plays released for today’s games, and there WILL be adds to the slate.

… Most importantly, I have a special for all of you who are either with another service who is losing this season, or have not been as good on your own as you hoped and are looking for historically winning plays which are off to a fast start….

Get ALL of my plays for the rest of the regular season and PAY NOTHING until March 2014, and NO INTEREST either!  It’s a ridiculous deal, even more ridiculous than the Eagles defense, and that’s saying something!

Good Luck and enjoy your third Sunday of the 2013 NFL Season!

If Jerry Jones thinks Favorites Should Win, He Should Never Check Vegas Lines Again

Jerry Jones was quoted by Pro Football Talk as partially shouldering the loss to the Chiefs on the fact that the Cowboys were “underdogs” in the game, and were not supposed to win:

“We went in there as the underdog,” Jones said on KRLD 105.3 FM, via the Star-Telegram. “The Cowboys were the underdog going in the game. The line actually expected us not to win that game. And so, let’s keep that in mind.  It never ceases to amaze me…  Actually, they were right. I think, what were they a three-point favorite? End up losing by one. It never ceases to amaze me how close these things pan out.”

So in Jerry’s mind, its OK to lose as a dog, because you shouldn’t win that game anyhow.  And if you’re a favorite, you should win the game.

Well then Jones would be REALLY mad if he found out that his Cowboys, when playing at home since 2010, are the WORST FAVORITE IN THE NFL.

When favored by less than 7 points (meaning Vegas says they will win the game, but by less than 1 TD), his team has won only 3 of 11 games (27%).  And they are 2-9 against the Vegas spread.

And when favored by any number at home, the Cowboys have covered just 4 of 20 games, or 20% of the time.

That’s the WORST percentage in the NFL.  So whose fault is this?  Well we know ultimately whose fault this is, it’s Jerry’s fault.  It’s his coach, his players, his new stadium.  They can’t cover the spread at home and they rarely even win a game when favored at home.

But of course this can’t possibly be Jerry’s fault.  I’m sure he’d say the blame lies with the Vegas oddsmakers, who screwed up in most of the Cowboys home games.  The Cowboys “should” have been underdogs in these games, Jerry would say.  And then it’s EASY to explain why they struggle to win at home.

Perhaps the easiest solution for Jerry is for him to simply just buy a hotel in Las Vegas, set the lines on games himself, and then make the Cowboys underdogs in every single game.  Then he wouldn’t have to embarrass himself after every game fumbling for reasons why his team lost.  He can just smile, point at the ticker showing the Cowboys were underdogs, and would not have to utter a single word.