Thanking Clients with this Thanksgiving Special!

Generally, I only promote my service when I think its warranted – when the savings are great or when it’s a really good time to buy.  That is why most of my newsletters and blog posts and radio appearances relate to stats, analysis, information and plays.

But now is a time to promote, because you should be aware of something.  As I told you in my last mailing, my results get STRONGER as the year goes on.  From week 12 onward, my records for NFL + CFB combined are:

  • 2012 (last year): 96-48 (67%)
  • Last 3 Yrs: 241-162 (60%)
  • Last 7 Yrs: 391-250 (61%)

So how did things go Week 12 of this year?

How does 9-2 (82%) in the NFL and 14-8 (64%) CFB sound?  A combined 23-10 (70%). 

And that includes hitting my big double play on a NFL total, just my 2nd one of the year.  These are now 2-0 on the year.

And guess what?

I have 2 of them on tap this week!  Two more double plays (2 units) in the NFL, in the midst of the historically strong late season.

CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE NOW TO GET THE TWO, 2 UNIT PLAYS THIS WEEK OR READ ON TO GET COUPONS TO SAVE UP TO $100.

So what can I do to thank you for getting on board right now?

Get the “Late Season Package” for $299, a $50 savings off of buying individual weeks, PLUS take between $25 and $100 off that price by applying 1 of the following 2 coupon codes:

Coupon Code #1:  “LATESEASON” – this will save you $25 off of this Late Season Package.

Coupon Code #2:  ?????? –Download in iTunes the Bettor’s Sidekick app, which is a FREE download and allows you to monitor real time scores and forecasts win percentages for all your bets.  You’ll see on the “Schedule tab” (sample below) an ad from me.  There is a coupon code in the ad.  This code will save you $100 off this Late Season Package!

– Learn more about Bettor’s Sidekick by watching the video here.

What You Get with Your Purchase:

  • PAY NOTHING UNTIL MAY, 2014!  That’s right, you can get this package and you won’t be charged a cent until May 2014 if you check out and chose “Bill Me Later”.  No hassle, no mess, no interest. All the plays NOW, Pay in May!
  • A coupon for 25% off of the College Football Bowl Package, which will begin on December 21st.
  • A coupon for 30% off of the NFL Playoff Package, which will begin on January 4th.
  • All NFL plays, concluding with the week 17 games on December 29th and all College Football Totals thru the end of the Regular Season, concluding with the Army/Navy Game.

And if you download the Bettor’s Sidekick app to save $100 off the price, you will be able to enter a free “Postseason” contest where you enter picks and can win prizes with a value in excess of $500.

 So if you want to get on board with this special Thanksgiving deal, act NOW, and don’t miss the TWO “Double Plays” I have for this week, which are undefeated this year, and each are accompanied by EXTENSIVE, detailed writeups.

CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE

 

Inside the Isolator, Week 12 Edition

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A look at interesting angles, concepts & analysis collected during this week’s research sessions spent strapped….. “Inside The Isolator”

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A weekly feature which will essentially be an “emptying the notebook” collection of tidbits I uncovered each week which didn’t make it into my writeups or analysis that I shared with clients for the week. Occasional free plays will also appear. This will be distributed every Saturday night over the course of the season… or until the gas cuts off inside of this thing…

To receive this weekly feature in your inbox as soon as it is released, make sure you’re on the mailing list:

What I Saw

… An unheralded rookie QB named Mike Glennon absolutely carve up the Atlanta Falcons pass defense.  He went 20-23, and two of those incompletions were throw-aways  I love seeing written off teams come back and fight hard.  The problem for the Bucs has been their schedule (amongst other things), which has been the hardest in the NFL YTD.  Unfortunately, with games against Det, Car, SF and NO still on the schedule, this team really doesn’t have a fair shake but I’m going to be rooting for them to play with conviction and intelligence to close the season.

… NFL referees 100% deciding games on the field with poor calls.  This past Monday’s Patriots debacle was the latest game.  Of course, the Patriots blatantly had offensive holding on the Saints when they won that game at home earlier this year, so perhaps some think it’s “even-ing” out, but I don’t look at it that way.  I look at it as incompetence at a time when there is zero room for error.  If you are the closest man to the play and you saw a bear hug with the ball in flight headed toward that receiver, and decide to throw the flag, it should be a flag.  You aren’t giving the Patriots the win.  They still have 1 untimed down against one of the best defenses in football.  But at least you’re keeping things fair and honest.  With the number of games decided by bad coaching and bad play calling, we can’t afford officials errors to decide games.  Can you imagine if that referee was a replacement official?  He’d have a bestselling book in 2014, mark it down.

… “Nick Foles is the quarterback for the Eagles and the system they are running. There are a few things Mike Vick does better than Foles, but if you give Foles all the starter’s reps thru next preseason, he’ll be very conditioned week 1 to get the most out of this offense.” – I said this prior to the week 10 games, but haven’t seen a single thing to show me otherwise.  Wins over the Packers and Redskins have occurred, and now they are on a bye, the last team to get a bye in 2013.  They come off the bye with home games against two dome teams (Ari and Det), and they follow that on the road with the Vikings and at home vs the Bears.  They’ll be tuned into the Cowboys/Giants this weekend, but should feel very good about their quarterback and chances to close the season successfully.

What I Want to See

… For a second straight week, an AWESOME Sunday night game is in store for us.  Manning vs Brady, or should we say Manning vs Belichick, as Peyton is really going up against the defensive guru in this one.  Belichick is 9-2 against Peyton at home.  Pay attention in this one to notice that Belichick rarely blitzes or sacks Manning.  They play a TON of cover-2 zone and force Manning to be patient.  This game will be decided by Belichick’s turnover margin.  If they get a fumble, they’re 7-1 vs Manning.  If they get 2 picks, they are also 7-1 vs Manning.

… Both QBs are banged up in this game.  Manning has his hurt ankle, and combined with the strong KC pass rush, Manning got the ball out early and often vs the Chiefs.  Brady’s throwing hand still looks beat up a bit and is not 100%.  He played exceptional vs the Steelers prior to the bye, but didn’t look tremendous vs the Panthers (though the Carolina defense had a lot to do with that).  It’s going to be VERY cold, and injured hands and ankles do NOT like that cold air.  This game should be fascinating on so many levels.

… Monday’s night game is subtitled:  The battle of the 2012 potent, read-option offenses who are now not read-option and therefore are not potent anymore.  This really is RIGHT out of the dumb coaching manual.  These two coaches brought in read option QBs who passed GREAT off of the run and put defenses in constant conflict every snap of the game.  They then decided to turn each QB into pocket passers this offseason (obvious Griffin was rehabbing) and are NOT running nearly as much read-option as they did in 2012.  Should there be any surprise that without the NASTY threat (not just mediocre threat) of big gains on the ground in the read option, that both QBs are struggling big time passing the ball?  This is a battle of two teams who might as well hang it up if they can’t get their QBs back on track.  The 49ers don’t stand a great chance of winning a playoff game over GB (assuming Rodgers is healthy), Car, Sea or NO when Kap is passing for under 150 ypg.  Do NOT let their game vs NO last week fool you.  Their only touchdown drives began off of turnovers, starting at the NO 11 and 22 yard lines.

What I Don’t Want to See

… Tavon Austin get left on the bench by Brian Schottenheimer.  He was rarely used early in the season, and prior to the bye, scored 3 TDs.  Schottenheimer had better make use of that bye to get Austin involved – they play the defensive sieve of a defense of the Bears this week.

… Backup Bowl, part 1 and 2.  Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road vs Matt McGloin and Josh McCown vs Kellen Clemens.  I take this back, a bit, as I’m eager to see what McGloin will do week 2, and I actually have yet to see any downgrade in performance from McCown and Clemens.  On the positive side, at least we won’t see Jay Cutler dragging his leg behind him while Trestman keeps him in there with the “atta boy” encouragement.

… Frankly, this week, there’s not a lot I don’t want to see, as I think almost every game holds intrigue in some form of storyline.  Including Indy @ Arizona and the NYJ @ Baltimore.  But if there is one game I’d bump from the Sunday Ticket 8 game box on channel 702, it would be 1-9 Jaguars @ 2-8 Texans.

What I Found

… NFL analysts could care less about strength of schedule.  They toss around general statistics without accounting for opponent’s played.  The Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games, beating Josh Freeman (3rd string backup), Matt Barkley (3rd string backup), Terrelle Pryor and Scott Tolzien (3rd string backup).  You used to hear the Chief’s trail of backup QBs faced mentioned often, but the Giants have only beaten crappy QBs this year.

… Is deep passing dead?  Last year we had 5 QBs throw over 15.8% of all their attempts over 20 yards downfield.  In 2011, we saw 4 QBs throw over 17%.  This year, we only have 1 QB over 15.8% (Jake Locker), and zero over 17%.

… The Chiefs are favored over the Chargers this week (and rightfully so, as they are 9-1 vs a 4-6 Chargers team).  But the last time the Chiefs have been favored over the Chargers?  2005.

What the Custom Data Shows

… In past weeks, I’ve highlighted the Panthers offense and defense, the Chiefs defense, the Packers offense and defense, the Chargers offense and the Chiefs offense.  Now lets look at the Ravens:

… Their offense is 31st in EDSR.  Their offense is 29th in efficiency.  Flacco is throwing for the 26th most yds/pass.  They average 3.0 ypc rushing the ball, and rank 31st in rushing efficiency.  Despite playing the 18th hardest schedule for their offense vs opposing defenses.

… I hate the irony I hear in the media about their lack of performance due to receivers being gone.  Talking about Boldin no longer being there for Flacco, and showing sympathy for Flacco.  Do these people not realize that it’s BECAUSE of Flacco wanting to get paid that there is no Boldin in Baltimore.  When you take on the $100M dollar moniker, you now MUST be the QB who can perform with average WR talent around you.  Or, if you have above avg talent, you better perform at a New Orleans/Denver/New England level, because that means the rest of the team’s cap money was not spent building a defense, and you’ll have to outscore opponents even more.  So far, Flacco isn’t ready for that crown in my opinion.  He always plays better at home, but it will be very interesting if the fingers eventually get (correctly) pointed at him, instead of feeling sorry for him.

… But the Ravens defense has been stellar.  Despite facing the 13th rated opposing offenses, they rank #1 in defensive EDSR, #1 in “30 & In TD %” defense, #4 in red zone defense, #4 in 3rd down defense, and are #3 in pass pressure efficiency.  And this is a defense who lost multiple starters and who was questioned all offseason as to whether they’d struggle.  It’s NOT their fault Flacco and the offense is not holding their end of the bargain.

What I’m Betting

… If you bet 4 or more of these 7 teams against the spread this week, you may struggle: New England, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Dallas, Arizona, Tampa Bay or Tennessee

… If its the same for you as it is for me, you cannot believe that in a few days, it’s Thanksgiving.  Thanksgiving for most of us means food, family/friends, football and fun.  And if you’re like me, you’re so busy with work that you rarely actually get a chance to realize how much each of those things mean as life spins bye in a blur.  But time waits for no man, so this week, try to take time to slow down and really think about what you’re thankful for, and what your life would be like if those things you are thankful for weren’t in it.

Happy early Thanksgiving, good luck today and enjoy your ELEVENTH Sunday of the 2013 NFL Season!

2013 Late Season Package + HUGE COUPON

Get ALL the plays NOW, PAY in MAY (2014)!

Late Is Great.  (Especially when you pay nothing until May 2014)

What you want when the season gets late is consistently solid results.  What do you consider solid?  61% over 7 years and 640 plays?  Or how about 67% in 150 plays during last season’s closing stretch run?

Warren’s records from week 12 onward are historically the strongest.  Visually, you can really see it “pop” on the graphic at the bottom, but in sum:

  • 2012:  96-48 (67%) from Thanksgiving onward
  • Since 2010:  241-162 (60%) the last 3 years
  • Since 2006:  391-250 (61%) the last 7 years

As you can see, short or long term, the results have been consistently solid.  I’m hoping we got started a week or two early, as my CFB totals went 14-5 (74%) last week and are 2-0 so far this week.

READ ON TO GET COUPONS AND DETAILS FOR THE LATE SEASON PACKAGE, or CLICK HERE TO PURCHASE WITHOUT USING A COUPON

Here are some highlights you can expect to continue:

1.  College Football Totals Success Late in the Season for “Former” RAS Clients

– RAS stops their CFB totals after 8 weeks.  Last season in their totals, $2,000 got you a 27-23 (54%) record for +2.2 units.  If you enjoy paying $2,000 for 2 units, you got a solid deal.  But they leave the market completely.  Right when the going gets good.

– In CFB totals Warren went 31-18 (63%) the last 4 weeks of the regular season, and then went on a 27-13 (68%) roll in the CFB Bowls.

2.  Crushing Closing Numbers

– A lot of RAS clients in particular rave about their ability to “beat the closing number”.  Last season they averaged +1.71 points in closing line value on totals.  They move the market, no doubt, but in part some is due to releasing smaller volume (small school/conference) games early in the week when the markets are under developed and easier to manipulate.

– Last week alone, in the 10 games Warren released, he went 9-1 vs the closing number AT PINNACLE, and in the 10 games, earned a +2.4 point closing line value vs the Pinnacle closing number.  And that was not playing small schools on Wednesday or Thursday.  That was playing the board on SATURDAY morning!   Two examples:

  • Warren released Syracuse/Maryland Under 57 on Saturday morning.  The game closed 53.5 Saturday afternoon, a few hours later, beating the closing number at Pinnacle by +3.5 points.  The game sailed under with at 20-3 final score.
  • Warren released Kansas State/Texas Tech Over 59.5 Saturday morning.  The game closed 63 at noon EST, beating the closing number at Pinnacle by +3.5 points.  The 49-26 final score sailed over the total.

– Two weeks ago, in the 9 games Warren released on Saturday morning, he went 8-0-1 vs the closing number at Pinnacle, and earned +1.8 points in closing line value.

So here’s the special “Late Season Package” I’ve put together for you.

WHAT YOU GET:

  • All College Football Totals thru the end of the Regular Season, concluding 5 weeks from now with the Army/Navy Game.
  • All NFL plays, concluding with the week 17 games, 7 weeks from now, on December 29th.
  • PAY NOTHING UNTIL MAY, 2014!  That’s right, you can get this package and you won’t be charged a cent until May 2014 if you check out and chose “Bill Me Later”.  No hassle, no mess, no interest. All the plays NOW, Pay in May! 
  • A coupon for 25% off of the College Football Bowl Package, which will begin on December 21st.
  • A coupon for 30% off of the NFL Playoff Package, which will begin on January 4th.

COUPONS:

– In addition, by entering the coupon code:  “LATESEASON”, you’ll save $25 off of this Late Season Package.  HOWEVER:

– If you Download in iTunes the Bettor’s Sidekick app, which is a FREE download and allows you to monitor real time scores and forecasts win percentages for all your bets, you’ll see on the “Schedule tab” (sample below) an ad from me.  There is a coupon code in the ad.  This code will save you $75 off this Late Season Package!

– Learn more about Bettor’s Sidekick by watching the video here.

FREE CONTEST:

In addition to getting the coupon code to save $100 on the late season package, another reason you’ll want to download the Bettor’s Sidekick app is to enter the 2013 POSTSEASON CONTEST.  You can enter bets for all College Bowl games and all NFL Playoff games, and the user who nets the most games won above .500 will earn prizes in excess of $500.  Details will be made available in mid December.  As such, you’ll want to get familiar with Bettor’s Sidekick so you’re ready to roll for the POSTSEASON CONTEST starting December 21st.

BOTTOM LINE:

If you want to get NFL and CFB totals which have long standing track records for success, particularly this time of year, and  you want to save big on them, you don’t want to miss this Late Season Package. And don’t forget, PAY IN MAY!

CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE

HISTORICAL RECORDS BY WEEK:

CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE