Since 2004, the NFL has allowed the defending Super Bowl Champions to take the stage in a standalone primetime game in week 1 at home. The only team to not play at home was the 2013 Ravens. All other 13 defending Super Bowl Champions opened week 1 at home in primetime.

Of the 13 games, 11 of these defending Super Bowl Champions started the very same quarterback who won the Super Bowl in their week 1 game (exceptions: the Steelers in 2006 started Charlie Batch due to injury to Ben Roethlisberger and the Broncos in 2016 started Trevor Siemian after Peyton Manning retired):

There has been a common thread in all of those primetime home games:

  • The defending champs were all favored by over 3 points
  • The defending champs were favored (on average) by 5.5 points per game
  • The defending champs took public money

Until the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles.

The linesmakers opened the Eagles as 4 point favorites against the Falcons. In primetime, a typical home field advantage of 3 points is considered industry average.* As such, with the opening line, linesmakers effectively said the Eagles were slightly better than the Falcons (1 point better, after removing home field).

But then something happened. Both the public and the sharp bettors bet against the Eagles and on the Falcons, lowering the line. The line dropped to 3, which would indicate the teams were equivalent, but for home field advantage. And both the public and sharp bettors continued to hammer the Falcons.

So much that the current line is down to a consensus Eagles -1 at most offshore books.

This is a historic level of disrespect from both linesmakers and bettors.

There has NEVER been another defending Super Bowl Champion to open in primetime at home with the same quarterback who won the Super Bowl, and be favored by anything less than 3.5 points.

By making the Eagles just a 1 point favorite, linesmakers and bettors alike are saying that the Falcons are the better team, and they would be favored to win if this game were played in a neutral location.

Here is a look at the all of the games in the study since the NFL started giving the defending Super Bowl Champions the stage in primetime at home:

Eagles SB disrespect

And the line continues to trend downwards. At some books, the line has dropped to a “pick” meaning the Eagles, despite playing at home, aren’t even favored to win the game anymore.

For some comparison to last year, during the regular season (week 17 aside) the Eagles were favored in all of their home games. They were favored by over 8.5 points per game on average and by at least 5 points in every game.

The Eagles played the disrespect card with Nick Foles and turned it into a Lombardi trophy last year. Philadelphia can start off this year the same way they ended last year – as the team being disrespected, as this line is showing a historic level of disrespect for the defending Super Bowl Champions.

*day time games have seen a slight dip below 3 points on average in recent years