Over the last two years, the Dolphins have led the NFL in short yardage runs out of 21 personnel.
With one or two yards to go, 43% of runs are out of 21, which ranks #1 in the NFL.
Only one other team is even above 18%.
They also rank #4 in 22 personnel.
They love heavy personnel on these runs, ranking #31 in the rate of 3+ WR sets and #1 in the rate of 2WR sets.
Here's the thing:
They are TERRIBLE on these telegraphed (due to personnel) short yardage runs.
In their favorite 21 personnel runs, they rank:
- #23 in EPA
- #25 in success
- #20 in YPC
In 22 personnel, they rank:
- #23 in EPA
- #23 in success
- #22 in YPC
But when they run from spread personnel, such as 11 personnel?
- #1 in EPA
- #2 in success
- #1 in YPC
We're talking a shift from one of the worst rushing attacks to one of the best.
Let's look at the exact efficiency numbers.
With 2 or fewer WRs on the field:
- #31 in EPA (-0.30)
- #31 in success (42%)
- #21 in YPC (2.6) on 66 att (#1 most)
With 3+ WRs on the field:
- #1 in EPA (+0.46)
- #5 in success (67%)
- #1 in YPC (5.5) on 24 att (#29 most)
You want to look ONLY at last year? Let's do it!
In 2024, with 2 or fewer WRs on the field:
- #32 in EPA (-0.62)
- #32 in success (49%)
- #28 in YPC (2.0) on 41 att (#3 most)
In 2024, with 3+ WRs on the field:
- #1 in EPA (+0.55)
- #1 in success (86%)
- #10 in YPC (4.1) on 7 att (#30 most)
Now, let's fast forward to 2025 Preseason Week 1.
The Dolphins had 6 running back attempts with one or two yards to go.
Want to guess as to how many came from those heavier groupings with just 2WRs?
100%
All 6.
Want to know the TOTAL YARDAGE gained by those 6 runs?
0 yards!
On 6 runs combined.
They averaged -0.58 EPA/rush, 50% success, and 0 YPC.
This ranked #24, #24, and #28 among all teams that ran in short yardage this preseason.
When they have 2WR sets, they're basically running 75% of the time, and 95% of runs are into 7+ man boxes.
When they have 3WR sets, the defense is in 7+ man boxes just 31% of the time.
Many teams use far higher rates of 3WR sets to run the ball in short yardage.
Last year, three teams used 11 personnel over 60% of the time, with the Falcons at 78% and the Rams at 82%.
The NFL average is almost 45%.
Using 11 personnel isn't some sort of unlikely usage case for short yardage runs.
But the Dolphins are down at 20% usage, #30 in the NFL.
And they rank #1 when using it.
Instead, they are #1 in usage of 21 personnel but rank #32 when using it.
If the Dolphins want to fix their short yardage game, the answer is staring them in the face.
Long term, ideally, they'd invest more in the offensive line and have better run blockers, and they'd add a more adept short yardage back.
But it's August, so that's not happening in 2025.
However, the solution is staring them RIGHT IN THE FACE.
Miami could EASILY run the ball more from 11 personnel in short yardage if they wanted to.
And that alone would go a long way to fixing their short yardage woes.
