Week 2 of the NFL season is already here, and to kick things off, we have a fantastic Thursday Night Football matchup with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Commanders.
Both teams are 1-0 after dominant Week 1 wins.
I’ll be zeroing in on Deebo Samuel‘s reception prop in that game, along with Josh Allen‘s receiving yardage and Derrick Henry‘s rushing total.
Let’s check them out.
Week 2 Prediction: Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (-119)
Samuel stole the show for the Commanders in Week 1, seeing 10 targets and catching seven passes for 77 yards.
This amounted to a 34.5% target share.
Sure, some of this may be due to fellow wide receiver Terry McLaurin getting back into game shape following a contract dispute, and ultimately, a resolution, but this production, or at least 5 catches, will stick with Samuel for another week.
In addition to a monstrous target share, Samuel ran a route on 83.8% of quarterback Jayden Daniels’ dropbacks.
This was 5.4% less than McLaurin, and Samuel also ran two fewer routes.
Still, he managed to have a 2.48 yards per route run, and 40% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage, which are high percentage catches.
His opponent this week, the Green Bay Packers, hosted the Detroit Lions in Week 1.
In that game, Lions quarterback Jared Goff finished with 74.3% of his attempts being either behind the line of scrimmage or 0-9 yards downfield.
He was pressured on 37.2% of his dropbacks, and we could see Daniels under pressure this week.
Especially if Micah Parsons lines up across from Commanders rookie right tackle Josh Conerly Jr.
Additionally, dating back to the start of the 2024 season, the two coverages the Packers have run the most in terms of what they’re showing on quarterback dropbacks have been Cover 2 and Cover 3.
Against those coverages, Samuel has recorded the following numbers:
- Against Cover 3: 20 catches on 26 targets and 129 routes.
- Against Cover 2: 9 catches on 13 targets and 67 routes.
Going even further, his two most common routes from 2024 to now have been crossers and hitches.
He’s caught 11 of 17 targets on 61 routes when running crossers and 8 of 15 targets on 74 routes when running hitches.
The Packers defense, again, dating back to the start of last season, has allowed the following statistics on these route patterns:
- Against Crossers: 45 catches on 54 targets (83.3%)
- Against Hitches: 94 catches on 114 targets (82.5%)
McLaurin could’ve been ramping up in Week 1, but he did run more routes than Samuel.
Regardless, Samuel is in a good position to beat this Packers defense for at least 5 catches.
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Week 2 Prediction: Josh Allen Under 229.5 Passing Yards (-113)
In Week 1, Allen posted what you’d consider video game-like numbers in the 41-40 come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens.
He completed 33 of 46 passes for 394 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Not only that, but he added 14 carries for 30 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Those 46 attempts were the most he’s had in a game since 2023, when he had 51 attempts in an overtime win in Week 12 over the Philadelphia Eagles.
With that, I’m taking the under at 229.5 passing yards.
In Week 1, 251 of his passing yards were in the fourth quarter.
Heading into that quarter, the Bills were trailing 34-19.
Now, he’s on the road against a New York Jets team that he didn’t throw for more than 215 yards against in two games last season.
In the game he played in MetLife, he completed 19 of 25 passes for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Jets played man coverage on 14 of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ 34 dropbacks in Week 1.
Of the 34, 11 were Cover 1, which was the most prevalent type of defensive coverage.
Over his career, Allen has completed 571 of 964 passes on 1,098 dropbacks (59.2%).
This isn’t to say the Jets will shut down the Bills or Allen, though.
Not only will he have success because, well, it’s Allen, but the Jets did run Cover 3 on 10 of Rodgers’ dropbacks.
Over his career, Allen has a 68.9% completion rate against zone.
That said, something else to consider is pressure.
The Jets have a formidable pass rush with Jermaine Johnson, Quinnen Williams, Will McDonald IV, and others.
In the two games last season versus the Jets, Allen, when under pressure, was 8 of 19 for 122 yards and 2 touchdown passes.
Something else to consider is the point spread. The Bills are sizable favorites. The Bills were 19th in dropback rate when leading in the second half last season.
Between the pressure, the Jets' man coverage, Allen’s rushing prowess, the Bills' rushing attack, and his passing yardage number against the Jets from last season, the under is the right play.
Week 2 Prediction: Derrick Henry 90+ Rushing Yards (-134)
As you may know, Henry exploded for 169 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 carries against the Bills in Week 1.
He had 85.9% of the running back carries in that game.
Across all players, he had 62% of the carries (18 of 29). This included quarterback Lamar Jackson having six and wide receiver Zay Flowers having two.
Last season, Henry drew 81.9% of running back carries and 60.2% of all Ravens carries, which included 325 for Henry and 139 for Jackson.
Of his 325 carries, he had 31 for 211 yards (6.8 yards per carry) and 3 touchdowns against the Browns.
One of those games was when he finished with his lowest single-game carry total, 11, and still managed 73 yards. That was a 29-24 loss.
He finished with 90 rushing yards or more in 10 of 17 games.
Additionally, on the road last season, the Browns allowed 5.2 yards per carry.
Henry has a proven track record against the Browns and is coming off a massive Week 1 outing.
The Ravens are 11.5-point favorites, and this level of point spread bodes well for the ground game and running backs like Henry, who will just pour it on and bleed out the clock.
