The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 3 matchup between the Jaguars and Texans.
Find a breakdown of every Week 3 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 21.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 14.0 | 32 | Points/Gm | 26.5 | 7 |
| 17.0 | 7 | Points All./Gm | 20.5 | 14 |
| 51.5 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 66.5 | 9 |
| 64.5 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.0 | 20 |
| 5.2 | 18 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 8 |
| 5.1 | 14 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 8 |
| 44.66% | 11 | Rush% | 44.36% | 12 |
| 55.34% | 22 | Pass% | 55.64% | 21 |
| 42.64% | 17 | Opp. Rush % | 33.33% | 4 |
| 57.36% | 16 | Opp. Pass % | 66.67% | 29 |
- 50% (11 of 22) of Jacksonville's drives have reached the red zone or scored prior, sixth in the league.
- Houston has reached the red zone or scored prior on 26.3% of their drives, 26th in the league.
- Houston is averaging 1.47 points per drive, 29th in the league.
- The Texans are averaging 26.6 yards per drive, 27th in the league.
- The Jaguars are averaging 1.9 more yards per rush than their opponents, the best rate in the league.
- The Jaguars have an 11% drop rate, the highest in the league through two weeks.
- The Texans have converted a league-worst 22.2% (4 of 18) of their third downs.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: It has not been an electric start to the season for Stroud, ending the first two weeks of the season at QB26 (8.7 points) and QB22 (15 points).
He completed only 54.2% of his passes on Monday night.
The most positive thing over the past two weeks is that Stroud has 32 and 27 rushing yards.
His scramble rate is 10.9% (fifth in the league) after rates of 4.2% as a rookie and 6.0% in 2024.
That is likely in part due to the lack of protection he is receiving upfront.
Stroud has been pressured on 40.6% of his dropbacks.
He was pressured on 35% as a rookie and 37.9% last season.
Houston has not done much in terms of creativity through two games.
They have used pre-snap motion on 31.3% of Stroud’s dropbacks.
His rates in that department were 55.6% in 2023 and 59.5% in 2024.
Stroud has used play action on only 11.8% of his dropbacks after a 23.6% rate as a rookie and 26.5% last season.
He also has played in the shotgun for 68% of his snaps after rates of 59.1% and 59.2%.
He has played two good opponents, but the structure of this offense does not currently offer a lot of ceiling appeal, leaving Stroud as a QB2.
If looking for a carrot here, Stroud does have three top 10 weeks over his four games against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has had a light runout to open the season against Bryce Young and just about a complete game from Jake Browning, sitting fourth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.311) through two weeks.
They have 5 interceptions already after only 6 in 2024.
That said, Browning did have late-game success here, and he and Joe Burrow combined for 317 passing yards on Sunday.
Trevor Lawrence: It wasn't always pretty, but Lawrence squeezed out a QB15 (19.2 points) performance in Week 2 against the Bengals.
He completed only 57.1% of his passes.
Drops played a role in that, as Jacksonville pass catchers had a league-high 5 drops last week.
But Lawrence also threw a pair of interceptions, including a rough one in the end zone.
We were always looking at the first two games for the Jaguars as a potential to start the year strong, and the runout was just okay.
Lawrence has not logged a QB1 scoring week.
Things now tighten up, and they will face some better defenses.
Lawrence has been the least pressured quarterback through two weeks (18.4%), but he has faced two teams that have not gotten pressure in their other game outside of facing the Jaguars.
He has only been blitzed on 15.8% of his dropbacks (7th lowest).
The Texans are fourth in pressure rate to open the season (45.5%) and rank ninth in blitz rate (33.8%).
When Lawrence has been blitzed, he has completed 58.3% of his throws (22nd) for 6.8 yards per attempt (20th).
In a tougher matchup than the first two weeks, Lawrence is a QB2.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn More
More Week 3 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Dolphins @ Bills | Thursday Night Football |
| Packers @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Eagles | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Jets @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ Panthers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Cowboys @ Bears | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Giants | Sunday Night Football |
| Lions @ Ravens | Monday Night Football |
