Bills vs. Patriots Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Bills and Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen cruised to a QB7 (24.9 points) scoring week on Sunday, completing 72.7% (16 of 22) of his passes for 209 yards (9.5 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns.

He did throw his first interception of the season, but he also added 45 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

Allen has completed over 70% of his passes in three of four games, registering a top-seven scoring week in every game but one.

We know what we have with Allen as a front-end QB1.

Buffalo has another high team total as a significant home favorite here.

New England has allowed a 71.2% completion rate (29th), 8.2 yards per attempt (28th), and a 5.6% touchdown rate (21st).

The Patriots are 24th in pressure rate (32.8%).

Getting to Allen is paramount.

When he has been pressured, Allen is 9 of 24 (37.5%) for only 3.9 yards per pass attempt.

They did get Christian Gonzalez back last week, but they also faced Bryce Young and the Panthers, so we do not have an accurate gauge on how much he turned things around.

Even factoring in Young, the Patriots have allowed 15.7 passing points per game, 23rd in the league.

Drake Maye: Maye was not tasked to do heavy lifting on Sunday, but he remained efficient, completing 14 of 17 passes for 203 yards (11.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns, adding 11 yards and a touchdown via rushing.

Maye has delivered three straight QB1 scoring weeks.

He has been at his best on third down to start the season.

On third downs this season, Maye has the highest rating in the league (125.5), completing 80.6% of his throws (1st) for 9.6 yards per pass attempt (2nd).

45.2% of his third-down attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, eighth in the league.

This will be Maye’s first real test.

He has opened the season against the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, and Panthers.

Three of those teams are 20th or worse in pressure rate.

Maye has been pressured on 33.1% of his dropbacks, the ninth-lowest rate in the league.

When pressured, Maye ranks 17th in rating (64.2), completing 53.3% of his passes without a touchdown while taking a sack on 30.2% of those pressures (30th).

From a clean pocket, Maye is sixth in rating (121.4), completing 80.6% of his passes (3rd) with a 7.5% touchdown rate (5th).

Buffalo is second in the league in pressure rate (45.5%).

When they have gotten pressure, the Bills have allowed a 43.6% completion rate (8th) with a league-low 3.3 yards per pass attempt.

Buffalo has faced Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, and Spencer Rattler the past three weeks, so the strength of schedule cuts both ways here.

We will find out some truths for Maye and this defense on Sunday night.

I believe there is more volatility for Maye here than we have had to start the season, but the current landscape for the quarterback position, with injuries and byes, keeps Maye as an upside QB1.

In his lone game against Buffalo as a rookie, Maye was QB16 (17.4 points).

Running Back

James Cook: Cook stayed hot on Sunday, turning 25 touches into 135 yards and a touchdown.

Cook continues to dominate this backfield.

He has 18, 22, 22, and 25 touches to open the season, handling 86.4% and 91.7% of the backfield touches these past two weeks.

In 2024, Cook had four games total where he cleared 15 touches.

Cook has ramped up his workload while remaining a hyper-efficient rusher — a tremendous combination.

He is averaging 5.3 yards per carry (8th) with a 53.3% success rate (3rd), 13.3% explosive run rate (13th), and 13.3% stuff rate (12th).

Paired with his stellar touchdown equity, Cook is a front-end RB1.

This will be a good test for this run game and the New England run defense.

New England invested a significant amount of capital this offseason to improve its defense, which has paid off early this season.

They have allowed 3.2 YPC to running backs (3rd).

They have allowed 0.66 yards before contact per attempt (4th).

They have faced a host of teams that have had issues running in their other games (the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers), so this will be their largest test to open the year, as well.

Patriots RBs: This backfield was nightmare fuel in Week 4.

Rhamondre Stevenson (10 touches), TreVeyon Henderson (9), and Antonio Gibson (6) all worked in.

All three backs had touches inside the 10-yard line.

We were hoping that Henderson would have a runway to a larger role.

He only ended up playing 30.6% of the snaps, his lowest rate of the season.

While that is a downer, it was closer to a 50/50 split to open the game.

Stevenson (45.8% of the snaps) and Henderson (41.7%) split the first half workload, with Henderson out touching Stevenson 6 to 5.

Still, the current state of this backfield makes everyone here a touchdown-dependent FLEX.

The positive news in that regard is that the matchup looks great if you do have to chase one of these backs in the FLEX.

Buffalo has been getting gashed on the ground.

They are allowing 5.4 YPC to backfields (30th) and 16.9 rushing points per game to backs (28th).

45.9% of the running back runs against Buffalo have gained five or more yards (30th), and they have allowed a league-high 23.9% to gain 10 or more yards.

They are allowing 113.8 yards per game on runs of 10 or more yards, the most in the league.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs: After a few weeks of getting him up to speed, Diggs was finally given an extended role.

Diggs was on the field for 81.8% of the dropbacks (89.5% through three quarters) after rates of 69.8%, 56.7%, and 55.3% to open the season.

He made those opportunities count, catching 6 of 7 targets for 101 yards.

When Diggs has been on the field this season, he has a team-high 26.5% of the targets with 2.17 yards per route.

If he is playing close to 90% of the passing plays, that usage will bump Diggs into WR2 territory.

Diggs has moved around, playing 55.6% of his snaps out wide and 44.6% in the slot.

Heading back to Buffalo, the Bills have been more giving to outside receivers.

Buffalo has allowed 8.4 yards per target (17th) and a 14.7% touchdown rate (31st) to those receivers.

Khalil Shakir: Shakir grabbed all 5 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown, his second week in a row with a score.

He took a screen pass 45 yards for his touchdown, staying on his feet.

The way he scored both of his touchdowns the past two weeks is tough to lean into as something that will be dependable.

Shakir is the most reliable pass catcher as a floor-based WR4/FLEX in full-PPR formats and single-game DFS.

We still do not have a lot of volume to lean on.

Shakir has been targeted 18.2% of his routes, a tick lower than both Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer (18.6% each).

Shakir has only been targeted on 9.5% of his routes against man coverage compared to a 23.4% rate against zone looks.

New England has played man coverage on 32.5% of their snaps, the seventh-highest rate in the league.

When these teams played last season, Shakir had 2 catches for 22 yards on 6 targets.

That said, New England has had issues with slot receivers to open the year.

They have allowed 8.1 yards per target (24th) to those receivers.

Keon Coleman: After catching 8 of 11 targets for 112 yards in Week 1, Coleman has pulled in 9 of 11 targets for 91 yards over the past three weeks.

He is still the Buffalo wide receiver running the most routes (82.5% of dropbacks), but Coleman is a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option best reserved for single-game DFS.

With Christian Gonzalez back, Coleman will be tasked with a tough assignment of winning outside.

In his two games against New England last year (only one with Allen), Coleman had 1 catch for 17 yards (with Allen) and 2 catches for 31 yards.

Josh Palmer: Palmer is only an option as a dart throw in single-game DFS.

He has only been on the field for 60.1% of the dropbacks, but if you are taking that swing, Palmer leads the Bills with a 31% target rate per route against man coverage.

New England WRs: With Diggs settling into a full-time role, the rest of the depth chart on Sunday fell with Kayshon Boutte playing on 72.7% of the dropbacks, Mack Hollins on 45.5%, Kyle Williams at 27.3%, and DeMario Douglas at 22.7%.

Nobody here is more than a long shot to catch a ball in the end zone.

Tight End

Hunter Henry: Henry only had 2 targets on Sunday (the team only threw 17 times), but he made the most of them, with one being a 31-yard catch and run for his third touchdown of the early season.

With the state of the tight end position paired with bye weeks, Henry remains a fantasy TE1.

Buffalo has only allowed 6.1 yards per target to tight ends (11th) but has allowed an 81.8% catch rate (28th) and a 9.1% touchdown rate (29th) to the position.

If looking for a carrot here, the Bills are fifth in rate of Cover 2 (21%).

Henry has a team-high 26.1% of the targets with 2.05 yards per route against Cover 2.

Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid only caught 1 pass on Sunday, but the 1 grab was good for a 28-yard touchdown.

That already gives Kincaid a new career high in touchdowns (3).

Kincaid is averaging 3.5 catches for 44.8 yards per game, but his 9.9 yards per target would also be a new career high if that holds.

We still wish Kincaid were running more routes.

He was on the field for 60.1% of the dropbacks, which is TE27 over the opening month.

His 15.1% target share is TE20.

Kincaid has overcome that via touchdowns, but his usage overall suggests that he is covering a low floor.

That floor is not as detrimental at the tight end position, while his offensive attachment is appealing enough to keep him in the mix as a back-end TE1.

The Patriots also provide matchup appeal.

New England has allowed 7.9 yards per target to tight ends (25th).

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