The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 7 matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders.
Find a breakdown of every Week 7 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Las Vegas | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0 | Spread | -12.0 | ||
| 16.75 | Implied Total | 28.75 | ||
| 17.2 | 29 | Points/Gm | 25.8 | 9 |
| 24.8 | 23 | Points All./Gm | 20.7 | 11 |
| 60.5 | 18 | Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 12 |
| 59.5 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 56.8 | 6 |
| 5.1 | 24 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 11 |
| 5.2 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 19 |
| 43.80% | 18 | Rush% | 40.85% | 23 |
| 56.20% | 15 | Pass% | 59.15% | 10 |
| 39.78% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 44.57% | 19 |
| 60.22% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 55.43% | 14 |
- The Chiefs have a 58.9% success rate on passing plays over their past three games (second in the league) after a 39.6% success rate over their opening three games (24th).
- The Raiders have turned the ball over on 16.9% of their drives, 31st in the league.
- The Chiefs have turned the ball over on 3.6% of their drives, 2nd in the league.
- The Chiefs have scored on 51.8% of their drives, 3rd in the league.
- The Raiders have scored on 32.3% of their drives, 29th in the league.
- 28.4% of Las Vegas runs have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- 90.9% of Kansas City runs have gained yardage, the highest rate in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes is getting really hot, posting three consecutive top-five scoring weeks.
He closed last week as QB1 overall (31.5 points) and has gone over 25 fantasy points in four of the opening six games.
Mahomes has raised his completion percentage in four straight games, and he is coming off a season-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt.
On top of that, he has already matched a career-high with 4 rushing touchdowns, while he is averaging a career-high 37.0 rushing yards per game.
The scrambling may not be as necessary moving forward, but Mahomes is operating at a high level and would be my QB1 overall in the rest of the season ranks.
Kansas City has no issue running the offense through Mahomes.
The Chiefs have the highest dropback rate in neutral game scripts (70.7%).
As a cherry, the Chiefs are getting Rashee Rice back this week, giving them a full arsenal of pass catchers.
We are getting Mahomes as a massive home favorite against a Las Vegas defense that is 23rd in pressure rate (33%).
The Raiders have only allowed one QB1 scorer all season, but they lead the NFL in the rate of Cover 3 (45.9%).
Over these past three weeks since Xavier Worthy returned, Mahomes has completed 23 of 30 passes (76.7%) for 9.8 yards per pass attempt against Cover 3 looks.
Geno Smith: Smith has one week higher than QB26 in weekly scoring over his past five starts.
Even with only 23 pass attempts on Sunday and a 43.9% dropback rate controlling the game against the Titans, Smith threw his league-high 10th interception.
His 5.4% interception rate is wildly higher than his 2.9% career rate, but the turnovers are part of why the Raiders have started to hide Smith and this passing game.
The Raiders have the lowest dropback rate in neutral game script (50.7%) over their past three games.
They are unlikely to be able to hide behind the run game here as significant underdogs on the road.
Smith is a back-end QB2 option.
The Chiefs are allowing 11.4 passing points per game (6th) and are 11th in points allowed per pass attempt (0.389).
Running Back
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More Week 7 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Bengals | Thursday Night Football |
| Rams @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bears | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Patriots @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Giants @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Chargers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Cowboys | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Falcons @ 49ers | Sunday Night Football |
| Bucs @ Lions | Monday Night Football |
| Texans @ Seahawks | Monday Night Football |
