This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into a showdown between SEC playoff contenders as Ole Miss travels to Athens to take on Georgia.
Ole Miss vs. Georgia, current line:
Ole Miss at Georgia Best Bet Prediction:
Trust Lane Kiffin’s offense to get the job done and bet on Ole Miss against the spread.
- Ole Miss vs. Georgia, best line: Ole Miss +7.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Ole Miss +7.5 points
When Ole Miss is on Offense
Ole Miss runs a fast-paced offense under head coach Lane Kiffin and coordinator Charlie Weis Jr, although the unit has not been as pass-heavy as in years past.
According to Campus2Canton, Kiffin’s squad has a pass rate 2.6% above expected based on situation data this season.
That rate is down significantly from last year’s 7.7% rate with the more experienced Jaxson Dart at quarterback.
Trinidad Chambliss, a transfer from D-II Ferris State, will be making his fifth start of the season for Ole Miss.
Chambliss took over in Week 3 due to an injury to Austin Simmons, but he has played well enough to hang on to the job.
To beat Georgia, Ole Miss will likely need to lean more heavily on Chambliss to exploit Georgia’s weakness in pass defense.
The Bulldogs' struggles start with their pass-rush unit, which will be at a disadvantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: ranked 18th in pressure rate allowed
- Georgia: ranked 73rd in pressure rate generated
Georgia’s limited pass-rush is compounded by the lack of experience in the secondary.
When Georgia fails to generate pressure, it is allowing a 48% completion rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, ranked 56th in the FBS.
Georgia's secondary has thrived in recent years thanks to star safeties such as Malaki Starks, Tykee Smith, and Javon Bullard, but this year’s unit, featuring KJ Bolden, Kyron Jones, and Joenel Aguero, has failed to live up to that lofty standard.
In addition to some struggles defending downfield, Georgia’s safeties have also contributed to an inability to defend underneath routes and limit yards after catch.
Kiffin’s offense is built around getting the ball to his playmakers in space 一 as a result, it’s no surprise Ole Miss ranks third in the country, averaging 8.0 yards after catch per reception.
That’s a problematic trend for Georgia’s defense, which ranks 92nd by the same metric, allowing 6.2 yards after catch per reception.
Ole Miss might lean more into the passing game in this matchup than in recent weeks because Georgia holds a clear advantage in the run game.
Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: ranked 43rd in yards before contact
- Georgia: ranked 6th in yards before contact allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 73rd in yards after contact
- Georgia: ranked 6th in yards after contact allowed
Kiffin’s strategy in the run game is typically to spread the defense, but that hasn’t worked against the Bulldogs.
When lined up with a light box, Georgia is still only allowing 3.4 yards per attempt to running backs, the seventh-best rate in the nation.
Due to Ole Miss’ pass-heavy strategy, issues in the run game might not play a huge role, but it could limit their ability to bleed some clock if it gains a second-half lead.
When Georgia is on Offense
Georgia is running a balanced offense this season under coordinator Mike Bobo, though this matchup likely dictates a more run-centric game plan.
Ole Miss can’t stop the run, and the Bulldogs hold a decisive advantage based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia: ranked 22nd in yards before contact
- Ole Miss: ranked 120th in yards before contact allowed
Georgia relies on heavier formations, which allows the defense to stack the box at a high rate, but that doesn’t help Ole Miss.
Even with a stacked box, Ole Miss is allowing 2.8 yards before contact (ranked 107th) and 4.8 yards per attempt (ranked 92nd) 一 and that’s despite not playing anyone with a strong rushing attack.
Due to Ole Miss’ inability to contain the run, opponents are only reaching third-and-long on 23% of sets of downs, ranked 75th.
This likely allows Georgia to control the ball and bleed the clock against Ole Miss when it gets a lead, or if it simply wants to keep the ball out of the hands of Ole Miss’ potent offense.
The rushing attack gives Georgia a clear path to victory so long as it maintains a lead, but if the Bulldogs should fall behind, they might be in trouble.
The strength of the Ole Miss defense is its pass rush, which might have an edge in this contest based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia: ranked 24th in pressure rate allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 4th in pressure rate generated
First-year starter Gunner Stockton has been inconsistent against pressure, especially against the better defenses on Georgia’s schedule.
Against Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama, Stockton has taken a sack on 25% of his dropbacks versus pressure.
Georgia also struggles to produce big plays in the passing game, generating 20 or more yards on 9.7% of attempts, ranked 78th.
The primary reason for those struggles is Stockton, who is completing just 44% of his throws at 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 98th) with a 65% catchable pass rate (ranked 118th).
So if Ole Miss can turn this game into a shootout or force Georgia to play from behind in the second half, the Bulldogs might struggle to keep pace.
Final Thoughts on Georgia vs. Ole Miss Best Bets
This Georgia defense is not loaded with first-round draft picks like in years past, so let’s bet on Ole Miss to cover the spread with its potent offensive attack.
While Georgia is still a strong program and a legitimate playoff contender, it gets too much credit for its past success as a nearly-unbeatable powerhouse.
Since the start of last season, Georgia is 2-8 against the spread as a home favorite.
