Indiana vs. Ohio State: Big Ten Championship Game Betting Pick & Prediction

This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.

Let’s check out the Big Ten title game as Indiana and Ohio State battle for the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Indiana vs. Ohio State, current line:

Ohio State -4.5 at Novig

Indiana vs. Ohio State Best Bet Prediction:

The Buckeyes look like a juggernaut, and their depth is likely too much for Indiana, so play Ohio State against the spread.

Indiana vs. Ohio State, best line: Ohio State -3.5

» Bet it now at Novig: Ohio State -4.5 points

When Indiana is on Offense

Indiana runs a balanced offense under coordinator Mike Shanahan, but will likely try to lean on the run game in an effort to slow down the game and limit opportunities for Ohio State’s potent offense.

Based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Indiana should be competitive in the run game:

Indiana: ranked 25th in yards before contact
Ohio State: ranked 26th in yards before contact allowed
Indiana: ranked 30th in yards after contact
Ohio State: ranked 4th in yards after contact allowed

Despite those numbers, we should remain somewhat skeptical of the Indiana rushing attack, which destroyed weaker competition but looked mortal against more talented defenses.

Oregon and Penn State are the only teams the Hoosiers faced with comparable talent to Ohio State, and both defenses were able to contain Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.

Indiana’s running backs averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt in those contests, compared to 5.7 against everyone else.

If Indiana has to lean more on its passing attack, it should feel comfortable in its ability to protect Fernando Mendoza.

Check out the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

Indiana: ranked 12th in pressure rate allowed
Ohio State: ranked 59th in pressure rate generated

The Buckeyes are probably better than that number indicates due to the amount of garbage time they’ve had this year, but Indiana’s scheme will likely prevent Ohio State’s pass rush from doing too much damage.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Indiana uses quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs) at the nation’s 20th-highest rate (47%).

This quick passing attack could be the key to moving the ball against Ohio State, based on these numbers for the Buckeye defense against quick dropbacks:

6.1 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 40th
18% pressure rate, ranked 113th

Despite relying heavily on quick dropbacks, that isn’t necessarily the strength of Indiana’s offense due to the lack of ideal playmakers for that type of passing attack.

On quick dropbacks, the Hoosiers are averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, ranked 43rd in the FBS.

If Indiana needs to pick up the pace and attack downfield more often, that’s where Ohio State’s defense likely gains an advantage.

In order to attack downfield, the Hoosiers will need to take more traditional dropbacks, and the pass protection battle no longer favors Indiana in that situation:

Indiana: 40% pressure rate allowed, ranked 45th
Ohio State: 46% pressure rate generated, ranked 30th

Ohio State has also allowed just 5.2 yards per attempt against traditional dropbacks, the nation’s second-best rate.

If Indiana can provide enough protection for Mendoza, however, expect him to have success downfield and potentially turn this game into an unexpected shootout.

On traditional dropbacks, Mendoza is completing 65% of his passes (ranked 9th) at 11.4 yards per attempt (ranked 3rd) 一 but his 8.2% sack rate (ranked 98th) is the problem.

In what should be a tight game, if Ohio State can create pressure and force a few mistakes in key moments, that could be enough to swing the outcome.

When Ohio State is on Offense

Ohio State has leaned on a pass-heavy offense this season, though the Buckeyes have been trending towards a more balanced attack down the stretch thanks to the development of true freshman running back Bo Jackson.

According to Campus2Canton, Ohio State throws the ball at a rate 6.8% above expected based on situational data.

However, that rate sits at just 0.8% above expected over the last four games, and the Buckeyes' second-half dominance of Michigan likely enhances Ryan Day and coordinator Brian Hartline’s confidence in the run game.

Despite Ohio State’s improved run game, Indiana’s defense might hold an edge based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

Ohio State: ranked 43rd in yards before contact
Indiana: ranked 2nd in yards before contact allowed
Ohio State: ranked 56th in yards after contact
Indiana: ranked 17th in yards after contact allowed

Due to the Buckeyes' tendency to rely on heavy formations, Ohio State running backs have carried the ball into a stacked box 68% of the time, the nation’s 11th-highest rate.

So let’s check out the Hoosiers’ numbers when lining up with a stacked box this year:

0.3 yards before contact per attempt, ranked 1st
2.6 yards per attempt, ranked 5th
36% stuff rate (zero or fewer yards), ranked 2nd
57% contact rate at or behind the line, ranked 12th

Most of those numbers are remarkably similar to Michigan’s defense, which Ohio State handled easily.

Entering last week’s game, Michigan ranked in the top 10 in three of those four metrics.

However, even before playing Ohio State, the Wolverines only ranked 81st in stuff rate with a stacked box (18%).

So there were some cracks in Michigan’s armor to be exploited, whereas Indiana appears to be the more well-rounded unit and should have a better chance to slow down the Buckeye ground game.

Even if Indiana can bottle up the rushing attack, expect Ohio State to be able to pivot to a more pass-heavy approach and find success through the air.

For Indiana to slow down the Ohio State pass game, it will need to get pressure on Julian Sayin, so let’s look at the opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:

Ohio State: ranked 11th in pressure rate allowed
Indiana: ranked 18th in pressure rate generated

Although those numbers indicate the Hoosiers might have a chance, it’s worth noting Michigan ranked fifth entering last week’s game and barely got any pressure on Sayin.

Since Ohio State’s downfield passing attack is a critical piece of its offense, the Buckeyes need to protect Sayin on traditional dropbacks of three or more steps.

Despite some early-season struggles in that area, it has become an area of strength, and the Buckeyes have allowed pressure on just 31% of traditional dropbacks, ranked 11th.

Indiana’s defense ranks 33rd by the same metric (46%) 一 and again it’s worth noting Michigan entered last week’s game leading the nation at 60%.

Sayin ended up facing pressure on just 26% of his traditional dropbacks against the Wolverines while completing 12 of 18 attempts for 193 yards (10.7 yards per attempt).

If the Hoosiers can’t consistently get pressure on Sayin, they might be in trouble due to the matchup in the deep passing game.

Although cornerback D'Angelo Ponds is among the best in the country, Indiana has been vulnerable to the deep ball.

Outside the red zone, opponents are completing 45% of their throws at 15 or more yards downfield against the Hoosiers, ranked 93rd.

That trend is likely going to be a problem against Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, as Sayin leads the nation with an absurd 63% completion rate at that depth.

Indiana limited Smith to just 3 catches for 34 yards in last year’s matchup, so perhaps the Hoosiers can eliminate Ohio State’s best weapon.

However, Tate and Emeka Egbuka combined on 11 catches for 148 yards, as Indiana lacked the secondary depth to match Ohio State’s all-around talent on the outside.

Although this year’s defense is better than the 2024 squad, it’s hard to imagine the Hoosiers shutting down Ohio State’s passing attack due to the stark difference in depth of talent.