BYU vs. Texas Tech: Big 12 Championship Game Betting Pick & Prediction

This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.

Let’s take a look at a rematch between Texas Tech and BYU in the Big 12 title game.

BYU vs. Texas Tech, current line:

Texas Tech -12.5 at Novig

BYU vs. Texas Tech Best Bet Prediction:

BYU was overmatched in the first meeting between these teams one month ago, and there’s little reason to expect a different outcome on Saturday, so let’s play Texas Tech against the spread.

BYU vs. Texas Tech, best line: Texas Tech -12.5

» Bet it now at Novig: Texas Tech -12.5 points

When BYU is on Offense

BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick utilizes a conservative run-heavy offense, which is the wrong scheme to run against this Texas Tech squad.

According to Campus2Canton, the Cougars run the ball at a rate 4.5% above expected based on situational data, the fourth-highest rate in the Big 12.

That strategy works well against most of the conference, but Texas Tech’s defense is perfectly built to shut down this style of offense.

Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers on the running backs via Sports Info Solutions:

BYU: ranked 77th in yards before contact
Texas Tech: ranked 9th in yards before contact allowed
BYU: ranked 34th in yards after contact
Texas Tech: ranked 1st in yards after contact allowed

BYU’s run-game formations lead to a balanced mix of stacked and light boxes, and the Cougars can adjust their approach based on the opponent.

It doesn’t much matter against Texas Tech, however, as evidenced by these numbers:

Light box: 4.1 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 15th
Stacked box: 2.1 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 1st

This ability to shut down the run has allowed the Red Raiders to force opponents into third-and-long situations at the nation’s third-highest rate, and it should have similar success against BYU.

The Cougars only rank 50th in third-and-long avoidance, and faced those situations 27% of the time against Texas Tech in the first meeting.

These struggles are particularly problematic against Texas Tech, which also leads the nation in third-and-long conversion rate allowed, allowing just 10 third-and-long conversions on 94 attempts (10.6%).

BYU’s offense ranks 64th in third-and-long conversion rate.

Those struggles stem from a lack of a downfield passing attack with freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier.

Outside the red zone, BYU is completing just 37.5% of its passes at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 88th, and that’s unlikely to improve against a Red Raiders defense ranked 16th by the same metric.

In their previous meeting, BYU tried to keep pace with its passing attack, but Bachmeier was helpless.

Bachmeier completed 61% of his passes in the contest, but found almost no success on anything except the screen game.

On throws past the line of scrimmage, Bachmeier completed just 12 of 26 passes (46%) for 5.3 yards per attempt.

One of the issues in that game was an inability to protect Bachmeier against one of the best pass-rush units in the nation.

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, Tech should dominate in the trenches once again:

BYU: ranked 58th in pressure rate allowed
Texas Tech: ranked 12th in pressure rate generated

BYU committed 3 turnovers in the first meeting, which certainly contributed to the Cougars putting just 7 points on the board.

Even without the turnovers, however, BYU wasn’t likely to be competitive as it was averaging just 3.9 yards per play.

Texas Tech holds a considerable talent advantage and appears poised to shut down all aspects of the Cougar offense once again.

When Texas Tech is on Offense

Texas Tech runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Mack Leftwich, though the Red Raiders might have more of an edge in the run game in this matchup.

In the first meeting, Red Raiders running backs carried the ball 36 times for 198 yards (5.5 yards per attempt) while only getting stuffed in the backfield 4 times.

This domination on the ground was likely no fluke based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:

Texas Tech: ranked 54th in yards before contact
BYU: ranked 103rd in yards before contact allowed
Texas Tech: ranked 29th in yards after contact
BYU: ranked 44th in yards after contact allowed

The issue for BYU’s run defense has been its mistake-prone tendencies.

BYU actually makes early contact at a decent rate 一 45% of the time it contacts the ball carrier at or behind the line, ranked 38th 一 but the Cougars also allow three or more yards before contact 27% of the time (ranked 71st) and 10 or more yards before contact 6.7% of the time (ranked 119th).

The Cougar run defense had two notable busts in the last meeting with Texas Tech, resulting in a 33-yard run by Cameron Dickey and a 43-yard gain by J’Koby Williams.

Texas Tech also holds an edge in the passing game due to its ability to negate the Cougar pass rush, which has been the strength of their defense.

The Cougars only generated a 28% pressure rate against the Red Raiders, their second-lowest rate of the year.

Based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions, the battle in the trenches could be competitive, but it’s hard to ignore the results of the last meeting:

Texas Tech: ranked 14th in pressure rate allowed
BYU: ranked 9th in pressure rate generated

We should also be confident in Tech’s ability to replicate its pass protection results due to its tendency to lean on quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs), which naturally leads to less pressure.

The Red Raiders use quick dropbacks 49% of the time, the 14th-highest rate.

That’s problematic for BYU, which ranks 63rd in yards per attempt allowed on quick dropbacks (6.5), per Sports Info Solutions.

BYU just doesn’t have the athletes in the secondary to contain receivers after the catch, and since most quick dropbacks result in underneath throws, it’s a tough scheme for BYU to defend.

On throws five or fewer yards downfield, the Cougars are allowing 7.4 yards per attempt, ranked 102nd.

If there’s an area where BYU might have an edge, it’s the downfield passing game.

Behren Morton was just 2 of 10 on throws 15 or more yards downfield in the last matchup.

However, that looks like an outlier when comparing both teams over the course of the season.

Outside the red zone, Morton is completing 48% of his throws at 15 or more yards downfield (ranked 39th), while BYU’s pass defense has been steady but not dominant with a 38% completion rate allowed (ranked 44th).

It’s hard to see an area where BYU’s defense holds an obvious advantage in this matchup, which likely means the Cougars will need to win a shootout in order to upset the Red Raiders.