This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into the most unexpected conference title game matchup of the year as Virginia and Duke battle for the ACC crown.
Duke vs. Virginia, current line:
Duke vs. Virginia Best Bet Prediction:
Duke’s helpless defense and struggling offensive line are unlikely to be competitive with a balanced team like UVA, so let’s lay the points and play Virginia against the spread.
- Duke vs. Virginia, best line: Virginia -4
» Bet it now at Novig: Virginia -4.5 points
When Duke is on Offense
Duke runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Jonathan Brewer, leaning heavily on the play-making ability of quarterback Darian Mensah.
Mensah is a boom-or-bust type of quarterback who has posted some impressive numbers, but the sophomore is still learning how to handle pressure and has been a liability in certain contests.
In seven games in which Mensah has been pressured at a 30% rate or higher, Duke is 2-5.
That includes the previous matchup with Virginia, in which Mensah faced a 43% pressure rate, his third-highest rate of the season.
And on those dropbacks versus pressure, Mensah completed just 6 of 14 passes while taking 4 sacks against the Cavaliers.
Based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, we should expect more of the same on Saturday:
- Duke: ranked 87th in pressure rate allowed
- Virginia: ranked 26th in pressure rate generated
One of the reasons Duke can’t protect Mensah is its tendency to rely on traditional dropbacks of three or more steps.
Mensah takes a traditional dropback at the 30th-highest rate (59%), while utilizing quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks or RPOs) just 23% of the time (ranked 129th).
This is a problematic trend when facing a UVA squad ranked eighth in the country with a 50% pressure rate generated against traditional dropbacks.
One of the reasons Duke relies on traditional dropbacks is to give Mensah opportunities to attack downfield.
Outside the red zone, Duke is averaging 7.8 throws per game at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 17th in the country.
However, Mensah only ranks 80th in completion rate at that depth (40%).
In his last matchup with Virginia, Mensah was 3-13 on throws of 15 or more yards, and that was likely no fluke as the Cavaliers are allowing a 32% completion rate at that depth, ranked 11th in the FBS.
It’s also worth noting that Virginia has one of the best secondaries in the country when it comes to making plays on the football.
UVA’s 15% ball-hawk rate ranks 11th, which makes them one of the riskiest teams to attack downfield.
Duke’s ball-hawk rate allowed sits at 11% and only ranks 45th, which indicates that Mensah’s low interception total (4) has required a bit of luck.
And, sure enough, according to Sports Info Solutions, Duke’s opponents have dropped 7 interception opportunities.
When Duke shifts to the run game, it’s unlikely to have much success based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Duke: ranked 63rd in yards before contact
- Virginia: ranked 43rd in yards before contact allowed
- Duke: ranked 87th in yards after contact
- Virginia: ranked 40th in yards after contact allowed
Duke running backs managed just 46 yards on 15 carries (3.1 yards per attempt) against the Hoos last time out, and there’s little reason to expect improvement on Saturday night.
The Blue Devils tend to rely on heavier formations, which allows defenses to stack the box at a high rate.
That’s a problematic strategy against a Virginia defense ranked 20th in yards per attempt allowed with a stacked box (3.5), per Sports Info Solutions.
Duke’s offensive line just doesn’t have what it takes to lead a quality rushing attack, and, as a result, its ball carriers have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage 48% of the time, ranked 122nd.
When Virginia is on Offense
Virginia uses a balanced offensive attack and had success in both phases of the offense in its last meeting against Duke.
The Cavaliers threw for over 300 yards and rushed for over 200 against Duke’s defense in that contest, en route to an easy 34-17 victory 一 a game they were leading 31-3 at one point.
Although Virginia dominated Duke on the ground statistically, there’s reason to be skeptical of a repeat performance.
Check out these opponent-adjusted stats on the running game from Sports Info Solutions:
- Virginia: ranked 60th in yards before contact
- Duke: ranked 27th in yards before contact allowed
- Virginia: ranked 110th in yards after contact
- Duke: ranked 103rd in yards after contact allowed
Those numbers indicate an even matchup, if not a slight edge for Duke.
So what happened in their last meeting?
A 78-yard touchdown run by J’Mari Taylor accounted for a significant chunk of the damage and skewed the raw numbers to give the appearance of a dominant Cavaliers performance on the ground.
Take away that one play, and Virginia’s leading rushers Taylor and Harrison Waylee combined for just 117 yards on 33 carries (3.5 yards per attempt).
So maybe Duke can be more competitive in this game by controlling the run game.
However, it’s harder to figure out how Duke can contain Chandler Morris and the UVA passing attack this time around.
Duke’s pass defense has been a sieve, allowing 20 or more yards on 13% of attempts, ranked 126th.
And while Virginia’s pass attack isn’t great (ranked 80th in explosive play rate), it still feasted on Duke’s secondary in the last matchup and produced six plays of 20 or more yards.
Duke’s best chance to contain Virginia's passing game is to get consistent pressure on Morris.
The Blue Devils might be able to pull that off, as they do have an edge in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Virginia: ranked 65th in pressure rate allowed
- Duke: ranked 23rd in pressure rate generated
Unfortunately for Duke, Morris is a 24-year-old sixth-year senior who’s seen it all and handles pressure well.
Check out his numbers against pressure via Sports Info Solutions:
- 56% completion rate, ranked 15th
- 11% sack rate, ranked 19th
- 37% positive EPA rate, ranked 19th
Duke also struggles to capitalize on its pressure, as the Blue Devils rank 114th in sack conversion rate (14%) and 126th in yards per attempt allowed against pressure (7.8).
The biggest issue for Duke’s pass defense has been an inability to defend downfield.
Outside the red zone, the Blue Devils are allowing a pathetic 55% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards, per Sports Info Solutions.
Morris ranks 27th in completion rate at that depth (48%) and is plenty capable of taking advantage of Duke’s primary weakness.
So while UVA might not have the same level of success on the ground, Morris' big game through the air should be easily repeatable.
Final Thoughts on Virginia vs. Duke Best Bets
This is a surprisingly small spread given how the last matchup played out, so let’s take Virginia against the spread.
Most of the areas in which Virginia had success against Duke appear to be repeatable, so we should expect a similarly dominant performance from the Cavaliers.
