This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $50 off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
The Patriots are underdogs in Super Bowl 60, but that does not mean all hope is lost.
New England has an MVP-caliber quarterback and an outstanding defense.
If they hope to win the trophy, though, they need to focus on three key areas.
Contents
The Importance of Early Down Success Rate
If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you know EDSR stands for Early Down Success Rate, an efficiency metric I created.
It isn’t simply success rate of first and second downs, but it does look at efficiency on the early downs.
What you may remember from prior Super Bowl write-ups is that it is the single MOST CORRELATED STATISTIC TO WINNING IN THE POSTSEASON that exists over the last 10 years.
The first thing we do is strip out the huge favorites/dogs, and stipulate that games must be lined within 7 points of pick.
That will give a more level playing field to evaluate the teams, and that’s also what we have in this game.
Next, teams with a 2+ turnover edge cover 81% of their postseason games.
So, to determine the efficiency of a stat, it’s best to strip them out.
Let's focus only on games where one team doesn't have a 2+ turnover advantage:
Teams with the better EDSR in these games have covered 73% of their games in the postseason since 2007 (49-18 ATS).
Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.
Patriots Early Down Success Rate:
Offensively, the Patriots ranked #3.
- They played 1 game vs. top-10 EDSR defenses
- #8 Browns
- They played 5 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR defenses
- #30 Jets twice, #28 Bengals, #24Titans, #23 Saints
Defensively, the Patriots ranked #21.
- They played 3 games vs. top-10 EDSR offenses
- #6 Bills twice, #7 Falcons
- They played 7 games vs. bottom-10 EDSR offenses
- #30 Jets twice, #29 Titans, #28 Browns, #27 Raiders, #26 Bucs, #25 Steelers
Click here for the Seahawks' three keys to winning Super Bowl 60
Three Keys to Patriots Winning Super Bowl 60
- Drake Maye Against Zone
- Two Running Back Sets
- Under Center Passing
Drake Maye Against Zone
Drake Maye has been beyond good vs most coverages this year.
He’s been outstanding against man coverage.
In fact, he has been so good against man coverage, particularly to close out the season and then again in the Divisional Round against the Texans, that the massively man-heavy Broncos (#2 highest man rate in the NFL) played only 3 total snaps of man coverage against the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
Instead, they shifted to zone coverage on 85% of snaps!
In the game against the Texans in the Divisional Round, Maye had the following splits:
Vs. Man: +0.26 EPA/attempt, 42% success rate, 10.0 Y/A, 70% completion rate (12 dropbacks)
Vs. Zone: -0.58 EPA/attempt, 22% success rate, 5.3 Y/A, 60% completion rate (18 dropbacks)
Denver absolutely didn’t want to use man coverage at anything close to their usual rates against Maye in the Conference Championship.
And that turned out to be a smart move.
Once again, Maye struggled against the zone that Denver played, recording -0.49 EPA per attempt, an 18% success rate, 4.3 Y/A, and a 50% completion rate on the 22 dropbacks that Denver played zone.
Are these last two games against zone an anomaly for Maye, or has he played better against zone this season because he hasn’t played very many good defenses that play zone?
Including the playoffs, Maye has played four top-10 pass defenses this year.
One of them plays the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL.
The other three teams (Buffalo twice, Houston, and Denver) saw outstanding success in zone.
In fact, if you look at Maye this entire season, he’s averaged negative EPA in only five games, and four of them were against the only good defenses that played zone against him at higher rates.
Overall
Vs. BUF: -0.03 EPA/attempt, 43% success rate, 8.7 Y/A, 70% completion rate
Vs. HOU: -0.24 EPA/attempt, 28% success rate, 6.6 Y/A, 59% completion rate
Vs. DEN: -0.56 EAP/attempt, 19% success rate, 4.1 Y/A, 48% completion rate
Man Coverage
TOTAL MAN: +0.26 EPA/attempt, 50% success rate, 8.8 Y/A, 62% completion rate
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Vs. BUF: +0.40 EPA/attempt, 59% success rate, 9.2 Y/A, 63% completion rate (17 attempts)
Vs. HOU: +0.26 EPA/attempt, 42% success rate, 10.0 Y/A, 70% completion rate (12 attempts)
Vs. DEN: -0.54 EPA/attempt, 33% success rate, 3.0 Y/A, 33% completion rate (3 attempts)
Zone Coverage
TOTAL ZONE: -0.35 EPA/attempt, 29% success, 6.3 Y/A, 64% comp
—
Vs. BUF: -0.18 EPA/attempt, 38% success rate, 7.8 Y/A, 72% completion rate (42 attempts)
Vs. HOU: -0.58 EPA/attempt, 22% success rate, 5.3 Y/A, 60% completion rate (18 attempts)
Vs. DEN: -0.49 EPA/attempt, 18% success rate, 4.3 Y/A, 50% completion rate (22 attempts)
The argument could be made that those teams would have stood to benefit by pivoting EVEN MORE into zone coverage.
That likely won’t be an issue for the Seahawks.
Seattle checks the box of being one of the few top-10 pass defenses that Maye will face in 2025.
But what makes them more unique than the Bills, Texans, or Broncos is that the Seahawks predominantly play zone coverage far more than those other teams.
So Maye will need to reverse this trend against zone against one of the best zone pass defenses in the league for the Patriots to come out on top.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $50 off using promo code SB60
Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:
- 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
- Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
- All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
- All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays
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Two Running Back Sets
The Patriots’ bye was Week 14.
Like any good team, they made adjustments.
One thing they did was increase their usage of 2-RB sets.
Weeks 1-14: 26% 2-RB sets
Since: 38% 2-RB sets (+12%)
This shift came via a massive reduction in 12 personnel, from 23% to 9.5%, and a slight drop in 11 personnel from 49% to 45%.
This shift wasn’t just running out the clock in the fourth quarter in their playoff wins or in their last couple games of the season.
On early downs in the first three quarters of games only:
Weeks 1-14: 25% 2-RB sets
Since: 37% 2-RB sets (+12%)
Naturally, the change was felt most on run plays.
On runs only (early downs, quarters 1-3):
Weeks 1-14: 27% 2-RB sets
Since: 49% 2-RB sets (+22%)
On all runs, all game:
Weeks 1-14: 36% 2-RB sets
Since: 56% 2-RB sets (+20%)
Running the ball with 2 RBs as often as the Patriots do is unique.
The NFL average is 18%, and the Patriots are up at 56% down the stretch.
This could be a benefit because it’s unusual and different to defend, but the Seahawks play the 49ers often, who live in 2-RB sets with FB Kyle Juszczyk.
The last three defenses the Patriots faced in the playoffs were the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.
Take a guess as to the teams in the regular season that faced the fewest runs from 2+ RB sets?
- #1 fewest – Chargers
- #3 fewest – Broncos
- #4 fewest – Texans
The Patriots’ multi-RB sets were a bit of a change to what those teams typically are forced to defend.
That will not be the case for the Seahawks, and could prove to be a pivotal aspect of this contest.
Under Center Passing
If the Patriots use play action, 75% of the time it’s from under center.
That’s because the Patriots use some of the highest rates of under center in the NFL when passing the ball.
The Patriots align under center on 32.9% of their dropbacks, #7 highest of any team.
Here’s the problem when using such a strategy against the Seahawks: They will pressure you quickly.
During the regular season, the Seahawks faced 78 dropbacks from under center, almost exactly the league average (76.4).
Under center dropbacks naturally average longer time to throw (3.15 seconds) than shotgun dropbacks (2.56 seconds), for obvious reasons.
Against the Seahawks this year, QBs when dropping back from under center averaged only 2.98 seconds to throw, which was the #6 fastest against any defense.
And DESPITE that faster-than-average dropback, QBs were pressured on 46% of dropbacks (#3), well above the NFL average (36%).
Because of the faster release and increased pressure, these under-center pass attempts averaged just 4.1 air yards(!), #1 shortest in the NFL and HALF the NFL average of 8.2 air yards for under-center dropbacks.
These dropbacks also averaged the #3 highest INT rate (4.2%), #7 lowest TD rate (2.8%), and #5 highest sack rate (9%).
Because of the low air yardage, low TD rate, and high sack + INT rate, those under-center dropbacks averaged -0.08 EPA, #5 worst in the NFL.
This doesn’t sound great for the Patriots.
However, there were certain teams that were able to have INCREDIBLE amounts of success with under-center passing against the Seahawks, and it came as a result of keeping their QBs clean.
If the Patriots can keep Drake Maye protected and scheme up some play-action looks from under center, it could be their key to pulling an upset.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $50 off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
